Now that the season has really gotten started: Who is DONE in 2026?

Michaela is insisting this is all part of the master plan from above

depending on where you are from; mu, rupp, pre.

Anyone who thinks athletes can be written off based on a couple weeks of indoor racing is DONE as a credible fan of the sport.

Given the current state of the women's 400 hurdles with no Femke Bol, she could probably still beat everyone that is left even while pregnant.

I have a feeling Nuguse's 1500 career is in its waning days. He was only #4 fastest in the US in the 1500 last year and placed fifth at nationals. He underperformed at Millrose this past weekend.

Whatever happened at the World Championships last fall, Hocker is just plain better. And Jonah Koech was more impressive than any other American in 2025 (Diamond league win + nationals win + World Championships finalist + #2 1500m time among Americans).

Strand and Kessler didn't look good at Millrose, but at their best I believe they clearly are capable of going toe to toe with Nuguse. Maybe Nuguse can still beat them in Diamond league-style races. For now. But I doubt he will ever beat them again in an unrabbited outdoor race.

Given his blend of speed and strength Colin Sahlman is due for a major breakthrough in the 1500/mile and will soon establish himself as a top-tier US runner in the event. I am on record predicting he will break 3:30 this year, and I stand by that. He entertains the idea he is an 800 runner, but this is absurd. In the course of his career, I believe he will have more success in the 5000 than in the 800. And I say this as someone who believes he will run 1:43 this year.

Nuguse is still definitively better than the next tier of young runners -- Gary Martin, Nathan Green, Liam Murphy, Marco Langon, Abel Teffra, Joe Waskom -- but going forward who knows. Martin ran a 3:48 mile last year (same time Nuguse just ran at Millrose) and placed top 10 last fall in the NCAA cross country meet--a big improvement in his endurance. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him dip under 3:30 this year. Murphy is a 3:33.02 guy who placed top 10 at both NCAA XC in 2024 and USA cross country nationals two months ago. I assume he will move up to the 5K/10K but we shall see.

Josh Hoey had the fastest 1500 time by any American in 2025 and will be dangerous in this event if he chooses to run it.

In short, there is a ton of competition. The young guns are closing in, and closing in fast. Meanwhile, Nuguse is looking less like a super dangerous 3:27/3:43 guy and more like a pretty good but not great 3:30/3:46 guy.

I do think, however, Nuguse could do well in a championship-style 5000 and I hope he moves up.

Hoare has been done for awhile now.

Women: Ajee’ Wilson, Natoya Goule-Toppin, Heather Maclean

Men: Bryce Hoppel, Ollie Hoare, Cooper Teare

Donavan Brazier looked awkward, but this man has bounced back 3 years later after being injured, so can't put him in the "done bin" just yet.

The biggest one is yet to come: JI.

He is not going to win a single 1500m / mile this year. This is a list of people, who are very likely to beat him in any scenario:

1) Cole Hocker

2) Cameron Myers

3) Isaac Nader

4) Niels Laros

5) Josh Kerr

6) Jake Wightman

7) Hobbs Kessler

8) Sam Ruthe

9) Josh Hoey

10) Two Cheruyiots and Koech

That's a long list.

Thread should be re-named "biggest overreaction from two indoor meets" thread.

2022 indoors - Jake Wightman outkicked in a 7:50 3km by Phil Sesemann, then in NB games outkicked by Andy Butchart. Neither renowned kickers. Then DNFd Birmingham indoors with an injury. Five months later he outkicks Jakob to gold.

Millrose womens mile 2018 Colleen Quigley outkicked Ciara Mageean. Elle Purrier, Nikki Hiltz, and Gabriela Stafford all were 7th or worse. Steeplesquigs never broke 4:03 while I think all others mentioned the slowest PR is 3:56.1.

Actually Stafford a good example as well - looked a million bucks with a wicked kick at NB games blowing away Josette Norris and BU valentine outkicking Cranny for an AR. LR called her the favourite for world indoors then she didn't even medal and by May was injured and took two years to recover.

Or the year Hoare beat Kerr at Millrose and everyone made a huge deal.

Or how Monson dominated the millrose 3k in 2023 but then 2023 was probably the last year she was really relevant.

Extrapolate from early Feb indoors at your peril.

Add Wightman

He may go down as the biggest one hit wonder in track history. Not time for him to hang em up, but he won't be competitive again.

On par with App. State beating Michigan, NIU beating Notre Dame, a 1-16 upset in March Madness.

Wightman had a contact with another runner and rolled his ankle 600m into the race at Millrose.

Also, Wightman almost won the WC last year. Gold and silver is no fluke.

Jemma Reekie doesn’t seem to have ever come back from the illness she had a few years ago. She consistently makes the same mistake in every race. Goes off with the leaders then looks like she’s running backwards as everyone flies past her with 150m to go.

Every. Single. Race.

Surely her coaches need to try new tactics or a different distance. It’s frustrating to watch.

Ah yes, the guy with a world gold, silver, and another top 5 finish. Plus two European podiums, two comm games podiums, and five career diamond league wins. Definitely a one hit wonder.

It was obvious that Kessler got hurt during the finish of the Wannamaker. I think he would have held on for second if he hadn’t. I wouldn’t dismiss him and I wouldn’t write off Nuguse at 1500 until we see what happens this summer. That GST mess threw off some people for sure.

Wightman is the Eli Manning of Track and Field

Easy does it Mr. Nostradamus.

Predicting (guessing) someone's 2026 season in February, six months out from U.S. Champs and the European summer racing reason, I have some investment questions about my portfolio for you.

Another big one is going to be Hoppel. Twice 1:47 this indoor season.

1) Hoey 2) Lutkenhaus and 3) Sahlman / Brazier / Miller is going to be the next team.

Mu.