Rojo says it's "insanity" for some people here to believe the race tomorrow could be won in 7:52

It is insanity.

7:53.00 equates to a 7:17.80 3k.

Fisher won the 3k last year in a WR of 7:22.91. And that was the perfect race as Hocker for some wild reason pushed the pace after Fisher initially took over for the rabbits.

So you think the guys might run the equivalent of 5+ seconds faster than last year? LOL.

Did Jakob enter the race secretly or something?

I love the idea that someone runs out of their mind the last few laps, out of alpha instinct or sheer terror, to destroy the field. But I don't think *that* much time can be made up (7-8 seconds) if they start out at 8 flat pace. Maybe if they paced it at go-for-broke (if not likely-to-blow-up) like 7:55-7:57...

Why do people here keep using Jakob as the standard bearer of time trials over distances like this? It isn't 2021-2023. Other guys have caught up in fitness.

If the race is won in 7:57 low, that would be spectacular. I would take the over on that too.

Maybe someone releases a tank of amyl nitrate into the ventilation system with four laps to go?

Setting out my stall:

1. Ethan Strand 7:57.1 (4:00.3, 3:56.8)

2. Grant Fisher 7:57.6 (3:59.6, 3:58.0)

3. Josh Kerr 7:59.8 (4:00.1, 3:59.7)

4. Cole Hocker 7:59.8 (3:59.8, 4:00.0)

5. Parker Wolfe 8:00.7 (4:00.3, 4:00.4)

6. Ky Robinson 8:02.6 (4:00.9, 4:01.7)

7. Graham Blanks 8:04.8 (4:01.1, 4:03.7)

8. Geordie Beamish 8:06.4 (4:03.1, 4:03.3)

9. Cooper Teare 8:06.6 (4:00.7, 4:05.9)

10. Edwin Kurgat 8:07.0 (4:02.5, 4:04.5)

11. Drew Hunter 8:08.2 (4:02.9, 4:05.3)

12. Habtom Samuel 8:09.1 (4:03.3, 4:05.8)

13. Jake Wightman 8:10.4 (4:02.7, 4:07.7)

Even though I just predicted a winning time of 7:57.1, I’d estimate the fair over/under at 7:58.8.

BU* track

*its always the BU track.

No, his achilles is falling off.

I'd bump Samuel way up to the top six. Hard to pick between those guys, but I'll go Hocker over Fisher Strand

I won't say it's completely outside the realm of possibility. There's certainly a chance someone in the field is technically fit enough to run 7:52.

But the odds of it actually happening today are astronomical

I tend to side with Rojo on this one.

There would be far more chance of this happening if it was just one of these main protagonists (Kerr, Hocker, Fisher) going for it themselves competing just against the lights, or the best worst case scenario going head to head (like the 3000 last year). But even then, 7.52 represents around 7.20 or just under which just feels like a threshold of performance you can't be worried about about tactics and positioning in (and history would prove that as the only two performances ever at this level came in races where neither Komen or Jakob had to worry about tactics or positioning).

I am interested/curious as to why people are so bullish on Josh Kerr here. He and Fisher are the same age (28) and just like Fisher, are on the descent of their careers. But Fisher as a primarily 5/10 guy just doesn't have the same anaerobic damage as Kerr will have and it's always easier coming down distance than going up. Fisher already has the race last week in Boston under his belt - the last time we saw Josh Kerr it was hobbling off the track in Tokyo. For me Hocker is the overwhelming favorite in this one (because I think he is extremely motivated to win this after his public disappointment of losing the 3 last year), with Fisher in second and Kerr behind both. But that's just my gut feeling.

No offense but you have to be an idiot to think that someone is “technically fit” to run 7:52. 7:52 is equivalent to 7:17 you moron.

Fisher is scratched. The time is definitely going to be slow

I predict winning time will be slower than 8:00

I agree Hocker is the favorite. A couple of weeks ago I expected that Kerr wouldn't be given much of a chance by pundits here, due to overreaction to Tokyo. That hasn't happened. My belief until today was that Fisher's chances were being overstated. I would have put him below both Hocker and Kerr.

Strand as wild card. I've seen some Beamish support but I don't see it. The others would have to run remarkably stupid as a group. The only reason El Bakkali lost world steeplechase last year was that he allowed the race to be ridiculously slow and then didn't understand who was behind him approaching the final barrier. I was screaming...what are you doing? El Bakkali treated that final barrier and the first 10 meters after the barrier as if he were running against the typical steeplechase guys and not Beamish.

I agree. It'll be interesting to see who decides to lead this one, and how hard they go. It'll definitely be slower without Grant at the front. I'm guessing Cole outkicks Wolfe in right around 8 flat

My prediction doesn't count now that Grant is out 😭

Trust me: it would've been right

Ahhh shiiiit

There goes that 7:52!