Mantz (healthy) could've run 58:50-59:10 last year proably, in the same conditions.
If Fisher does a HM and trains for it specifically I expect him to run under 59 like Almgren
Fisher healthy and trained for it would potentially run sub 58 based on the half marathon success of the people he's on the same level as in the 10k. I think that 58:00 to 58:30 is probably where I'd expect him. Hopefully he goes for one before it's too late in his career.
Nico and Blanks are arguably in front of where Grant was at the same age. Exciting to think about what they may do in a half if one (or both) give it a real go. From afar, it seems like the half may be the ideal event for Blanks.
Being impressed over Time is pointless in the era of the cheater shoes. Add six minutes
^This. Be fun to see how many AR had been broken in the 5 years prior to cheat shoes compared to the 5 years after.
How many olympic and world championship top 10 finishes has the US had in the 10 years before 'cheat shoes' and then in the 10 years since? American distance running has gotten way more competitive. There were guys running 2:02/2:03 marathons back when a 2:14 guy was noteworthy for Americans. The fastest in the world are barely running faster, but we've got a bunch of Americans running 2:04-2:09. America is dramatically closing the gap.
Being impressed over Time is pointless in the era of the cheater shoes. Add six minutes
Love all the down arrows. Predicted fatigue over hearing the truth over and over about super shoes would fully set in. Regardless of fatigue, it is absolutely true and relevant. Cannot compare times to pre-supershoes marks.
Do you just say zero shoe advancements in a "close to a DECADE" and then say that guys are wearing the same shoes for the last two years (it's Jan 11 of 2026). I'm howling. Guessing you're American?
He's actually right. I review shoes with a major partner and there have been no real shoe advancement technologies in the last 5-7 years. Super critical foams, versions of carbon fiber splayed plates, nothing new. Actually, regulations are making stack heights lower. Can't be worn on track. I look at Andres Almgren again who wore the same 4% in 2025 and 2026 in Valencia, 10-seconds faster this year, another year of training, not shoes.. same with the 80 other guys that went sub 29:15. Same shoes, new training.
Yup, new supershoes are marginally better than OG Vaporfly and Alphafly, if at all. Alex Yee running 2:05, for example, was accomplished in a pair of new balance that can't hold a candle to the shoes Rupp and Kipchoge had on 10 years ago.