Well, I googled it and couldn't find any scientific studies. It's amazing there are numerous ones out there that I can't find in google. Everything I found said even splits was the most efficient. I will recognize that your logic regarding the loss of water weight is intriguing. Assuming that you lose 1 pound of water weight per mile, and that each pound of excess weight makes you roughly 2 seconds per mile faster, then your ideal splits for an even effort throughout a flat 10k would look something like this:6:50, 6:48, 6:46, 6:44, 6:42, 6:40, 1:20However, your assumption that you won't have any negative effects from dehydration doesn't seem right. Here is what I found in my search on dehyrdration and running.
Each one-percent loss in bodyweight due to dehydration typically leads to a two to three percent reduction in running performance. The link between dehydration and running performance is:
1) your blood volume decreases, so less blood returns to your heart;
2) the amount of blood your heart pumps with each beat decreases;
3) less oxygen-rich blood reaches your working muscles;
4) your muscles have less oxygen with which to produce energy aerobically;
5) you must run at a slower pace.
In addition, sending blood to your skin is one of your body’s cooling mechanisms. When you are dehydrated, there is less blood available to be sent to the skin and less for the working muscles, so performance decreases and the risk of heat injury increases.
It doesn't mention anything about a safe buffer where losing water doesn't have any negative effects. And I couldn't find anything on that either.
So, unless you can find those numerous studies that support your theories, I think even splits is probably good advice for running a race, making slight adjustments for terrain, wind, etc, which of course will be different depending on your personal strengths and weaknesses.
In fact, if it's really hot, you might want to ingest some water at the early aid stations so you don't suffer too many of the negative side effects of dehydration.