A triple Medal yes I absolutely see it possible if he gets close to his peak fitness again, triple Gold on the other hand might be a little bit of a reach mainly in the 10k in my opinion. If he reaches a new level of fitness he hasn't had before I would say it would be completely possible.
With all due respect he couldn't even do the double in the year he ran 3.26.7 and 7.17.55 - in fact he didn't even make the podium in the 1500m.
To even be competitive in the 10000m he would need to change his training to the point that being competitive in the 1500m is simply impossible/implausible. There is a reason why the closest thing we have had to a 15-5-10 triple is Nurmi back in 1924 (the 1500-5-XC triple) and no disrespect to the great Paavo Nurmi, but 1924 was not and is not 2028 (he ran 3.53, 14.31 and 32.50 for 10.6km)
The level of fitness he would have to reach to run that triple in 2028 is simply beyond the capabilities of a human being.I don't need to be an expert in human physiology to be very confident in that statement.
1500m were before the 5k. His 1500m performance didn't have anything to do with doubling. In hindsight you simply can't win in today's competitive environment running from the front. He could have employed a different tactic and in that situation it would have been anyone's game. People like to say that Hocker would win a slower race but nothing is certain, it is all about having relatively good position while still expending the least amount of energy.
His 2024 condition was good enough to win. It is all about tactics and luck.
A triple Medal yes I absolutely see it possible if he gets close to his peak fitness again, triple Gold on the other hand might be a little bit of a reach mainly in the 10k in my opinion. If he reaches a new level of fitness he hasn't had before I would say it would be completely possible.
With all due respect he couldn't even do the double in the year he ran 3.26.7 and 7.17.55 - in fact he didn't even make the podium in the 1500m.
To even be competitive in the 10000m he would need to change his training to the point that being competitive in the 1500m is simply impossible/implausible. There is a reason why the closest thing we have had to a 15-5-10 triple is Nurmi back in 1924 (the 1500-5-XC triple) and no disrespect to the great Paavo Nurmi, but 1924 was not and is not 2028 (he ran 3.53, 14.31 and 32.50 for 10.6km)
The level of fitness he would have to reach to run that triple in 2028 is simply beyond the capabilities of a human being.I don't need to be an expert in human physiology to be very confident in that statement.
Sifan Hassan won The 1500 and 10000 in either the World's or Olympics, She has done The Triple several times, Not sure if she ever won the triple but she wins Medals lots of times, So If She could do it, it can be done
Have they made the 800m/1500m double (for men) impossible again?
Imagine how different LA 84 would have been if they had the current dumb timetable and Coe had had to choose between the 800 and 1500? (or maybe back then he would even have become a 1500/5000 runner?)
With all due respect he couldn't even do the double in the year he ran 3.26.7 and 7.17.55 - in fact he didn't even make the podium in the 1500m.
To even be competitive in the 10000m he would need to change his training to the point that being competitive in the 1500m is simply impossible/implausible. There is a reason why the closest thing we have had to a 15-5-10 triple is Nurmi back in 1924 (the 1500-5-XC triple) and no disrespect to the great Paavo Nurmi, but 1924 was not and is not 2028 (he ran 3.53, 14.31 and 32.50 for 10.6km)
The level of fitness he would have to reach to run that triple in 2028 is simply beyond the capabilities of a human being.I don't need to be an expert in human physiology to be very confident in that statement.
Sifan Hassan won The 1500 and 10000 in either the World's or Olympics, She has done The Triple several times, Not sure if she ever won the triple but she wins Medals lots of times, So If She could do it, it can be done
Just being at the start line is one thing - yeah could he qualify for all three events? Probably. So could a lot of guys that aren't from the US that have much easier paths to qualification with a brutal trials system. Pretty sure Andreas Almgren (who ran 3.32.00 as recently as 2023) could also theoretically enter and start all all three events. But is that the point of this question?
I'm sorry but comparing womens MD/distance running to mens in terms of depth of talent like apples to oranges. It is just not the same. Even with the massive catching up the women have done in the last 3-4 seasons, especially over events like the 1500m where as recently as 4 years ago running under 3.55 was very rare, it's still just not the same.
2025 - looking at the 10th best performances of the season as an average marker of the depth of the worlds best.
1500m: 10th on the mens performance list Jakob 3.29.63 (1250 points) - the equivalent performance on the womens side should be 3.54.57 - it's 3.56.30
5000m: 10th - Blanks, 12.48.20 - womens equivalent should be around 14.14 - it's 14.27
These trends can be seen at any level throughout the seasons bests except for right at the top thanks to two outlier women - Kipyegon and Chebet.
Just getting on the podium in the mens events is so hard. Already been mentioned but the last global final Jakob made over 1500m he didn't even medal, even though he was in his career best shape over both 1500 and 3000m. So somehow he needs to actually improve or in the very least maintain his level over the 1500m, bring up his level considerably over 10000m to the level he could be a challenger to medal, and he's going to do all this in 3 years time?
So no, just because Sifan Hassan did a very successful triple on the womens side (2 golds and a bronze) does not mean it can be done on the mens side - and it never will be done on the mens side.
I have serious doubts for Jakob’s ability for the 1500m in 2028. He can’t win championships even now and it’s not like his kick will be any better at almost age 28.
But he would be the heavy favorite in the 10000m and probably still the 5000m. If he decides to contest the 10000m instead, he could be the first person to win OG at all three of the 1500, 5000 and 10,000.
Heavy favorite in the 10000m? Come on. His 10K road PR is 27:27 which is about 58 pace for the HM. A 1500/10000 double is not going to happen and the 5000m will still be his best shot for a gold.
A triple Medal yes I absolutely see it possible if he gets close to his peak fitness again, triple Gold on the other hand might be a little bit of a reach mainly in the 10k in my opinion. If he reaches a new level of fitness he hasn't had before I would say it would be completely possible.
With all due respect he couldn't even do the double in the year he ran 3.26.7 and 7.17.55 - in fact he didn't even make the podium in the 1500m.
To even be competitive in the 10000m he would need to change his training to the point that being competitive in the 1500m is simply impossible/implausible. There is a reason why the closest thing we have had to a 15-5-10 triple is Nurmi back in 1924 (the 1500-5-XC triple) and no disrespect to the great Paavo Nurmi, but 1924 was not and is not 2028 (he ran 3.53, 14.31 and 32.50 for 10.6km)
The level of fitness he would have to reach to run that triple in 2028 is simply beyond the capabilities of a human being.I don't need to be an expert in human physiology to be very confident in that statement.
Great post. Exactly correct. Jakob should focus on the 10,000 and, possibly, 5000 in 2028. He can still run the doors off of almost anyone, but he just doesn’t have the ridiculous kick like Hocker. He still has a good kick but not one that ensures even a medal at 1500.
I have serious doubts for Jakob’s ability for the 1500m in 2028. He can’t win championships even now and it’s not like his kick will be any better at almost age 28.
But he would be the heavy favorite in the 10000m and probably still the 5000m. If he decides to contest the 10000m instead, he could be the first person to win OG at all three of the 1500, 5000 and 10,000.
Heavy favorite in the 10000m? Come on. His 10K road PR is 27:27 which is about 58 pace for the HM. A 1500/10000 double is not going to happen and the 5000m will still be his best shot for a gold.
A dude who ran 7:17 for 3000 has the capacity to be a world beater at 10,000 with just a little different training. But not at 1500, not anymore. Yeah, it’s possible Jakob could run 3:25.99 in a time trial race in Europe but not make the podium when it really counts in 2028.
I have serious doubts for Jakob’s ability for the 1500m in 2028. He can’t win championships even now and it’s not like his kick will be any better at almost age 28.
But he would be the heavy favorite in the 10000m and probably still the 5000m. If he decides to contest the 10000m instead, he could be the first person to win OG at all three of the 1500, 5000 and 10,000.
Paavo Nurmi technically achieved this in 1928 (though obviously competition was much different back then.)
1920: Gold in 10,000m; Indvl XC; Team XC (and Silver in 5000m) 1924: Gold in 1500m; 5000m; 3000m team; Invdl XC; Team XC 1928: Gold in 10,000m (and Silver in 5000m and 3000m SC)
Heavy favorite in the 10000m? Come on. His 10K road PR is 27:27 which is about 58 pace for the HM. A 1500/10000 double is not going to happen and the 5000m will still be his best shot for a gold.
A dude who ran 7:17 for 3000 has the capacity to be a world beater at 10,000 with just a little different training. But not at 1500, not anymore. Yeah, it’s possible Jakob could run 3:25.99 in a time trial race in Europe but not make the podium when it really counts in 2028.
That Jakob could be a powerhouse in the 10000m, is pure, unsupported speculation. There’s not a single data point that indicates he could do so. The 10000m is 2.3 times farther than 3000m and he needs maximin fitness to run 1500m. There’s no just a little different trading for him to run the 10.
The 10 takes a lot out of you. But so do rounds. I don't think we will ever see anyone on the men's side try that triple. If they did, and won the 10, they'd probably withdraw from the 15 for more time to recover for the 5.
Hocker would have a chance at it. Not Jakob.
maybe if all the races were slow and tactical but I don’t see that happening with someone like him in a race - who knows who will pop up on the scene in the next three years?
Heavy favorite in the 10000m? Come on. His 10K road PR is 27:27 which is about 58 pace for the HM. A 1500/10000 double is not going to happen and the 5000m will still be his best shot for a gold.
A dude who ran 7:17 for 3000 has the capacity to be a world beater at 10,000 with just a little different training. But not at 1500, not anymore. Yeah, it’s possible Jakob could run 3:25.99 in a time trial race in Europe but not make the podium when it really counts in 2028.
Jesus you guys seriously go off recency bias way too hard. You’re seriously saying that Jakob is not a “world beater” in the 1500 based off his 4th place at the Olympics where he simply opened up too hard and where he got beat by 3 guys who ran the greatest races of their lives and will likely never match their performances ever again? Damn dude, Jakob must suck then. What if Jakob never got injured and made the final this year, do you really think he’s losing to Nader? It’s one thing to argue that his injuries may limit himself from progressing in the 1500 (I can agree with that), but this kick nonsense is nauseating.
I have serious doubts for Jakob’s ability for the 1500m in 2028. He can’t win championships even now and it’s not like his kick will be any better at almost age 28.
But he would be the heavy favorite in the 10000m and probably still the 5000m. If he decides to contest the 10000m instead, he could be the first person to win OG at all three of the 1500, 5000 and 10,000.
Well he was injured so of course he couldn’t win a championship currently. Jakob ran a stupid race in Paris, it didn’t come down to a kick at all from him.
The 10 takes a lot out of you. But so do rounds. I don't think we will ever see anyone on the men's side try that triple. If they did, and won the 10, they'd probably withdraw from the 15 for more time to recover for the 5.
Hocker would have a chance at it. Not Jakob.
I don’t think Hocker has ever won a 10000m race, did he do well in NCAA XC?