I don't see how NC St can score only ~100 points. For them that would mean something like 5/10/20/30/35 which seems very aggressive for their 4/5 runners. OR in theory could go ~10/10/15/30/40 (Thompson scored 24 last year and Barnett 37 in 2022) but I think the field is deeper now.
No offense, but I really do not think you can be that obtuse to be looking at the absolute value of the scores when the simulations are obviously limited in scope regarding the potential sheer numbers of athletes in a full field simulation.
The important things to be looking at here are team placement and how the point deltas between the top teams are being influenced.
well, knock yourself out, but I think as data come in what you show above will change a lot
This is all great stuff and it is easy to be a contrarian. Let's wait to see what happens at Nuttycombe and at the ACC's. ND is at a completely different level than they were last year and they won the ACC. I think they are being dismissed a bit early and have some of the greatest depth and smallest spread 1-7. I think the real story at the end of the season is going to be the influx of foreign recruits into the mix, many of whom are virtually unknown. The top 20 list is predominantly Kenyan and there are probably some missing. If these recruits were concentrated more effectively on one team, the outcome would be a foregone conclusion. It is only a matter of time before that happens and Florida is closest. Paradigm shifts are ahead and I doubt NC State or BYU wins the title. Odds favor Florida particularly when they sort out the 5th spot.
Amen!
At a minimum, I think in 10/11 days we will see more complete teams for BYU/NM/NAU/NC State...and maybe we see what FL really has for a 5th
This is all great stuff and it is easy to be a contrarian. Let's wait to see what happens at Nuttycombe and at the ACC's. ND is at a completely different level than they were last year and they won the ACC. I think they are being dismissed a bit early and have some of the greatest depth and smallest spread 1-7. I think the real story at the end of the season is going to be the influx of foreign recruits into the mix, many of whom are virtually unknown. The top 20 list is predominantly Kenyan and there are probably some missing. If these recruits were concentrated more effectively on one team, the outcome would be a foregone conclusion. It is only a matter of time before that happens and Florida is closest. Paradigm shifts are ahead and I doubt NC State or BYU wins the title. Odds favor Florida particularly when they sort out the 5th spot.
You’re touching on multiple topics in this interesting post. Regarding Notre Dame, I don’t quite understand your infatuation with being able to run in a tight pack. Isn’t the more important thing to get runners, particularly their top 5, across the line ASAP?
No offense, but I really do not think you can be that obtuse to be looking at the absolute value of the scores when the simulations are obviously limited in scope regarding the potential sheer numbers of athletes in a full field simulation.
The important things to be looking at here are team placement and how the point deltas between the top teams are being influenced.
well, knock yourself out, but I think as data come in what you show above will change a lot
We know there will be changes. Simply getting data on some of the more influential athletes (Hedengren) will greatly influence the team’s outcome.
This is all great stuff and it is easy to be a contrarian. Let's wait to see what happens at Nuttycombe and at the ACC's. ND is at a completely different level than they were last year and they won the ACC. I think they are being dismissed a bit early and have some of the greatest depth and smallest spread 1-7. I think the real story at the end of the season is going to be the influx of foreign recruits into the mix, many of whom are virtually unknown. The top 20 list is predominantly Kenyan and there are probably some missing. If these recruits were concentrated more effectively on one team, the outcome would be a foregone conclusion. It is only a matter of time before that happens and Florida is closest. Paradigm shifts are ahead and I doubt NC State or BYU wins the title. Odds favor Florida particularly when they sort out the 5th spot.
Personally, I am rooting for BYU and NC St to go 1-2 (in either order tho I have a preference) and after the meet Taylor and Henes can just look over at Gauson and Palmer and just smile.......
. Regarding Notre Dame, I don’t quite understand your infatuation with being able to run in a tight pack. Isn’t the more important thing to get runners, particularly their top 5, across the line ASAP?
This is a question I’m genuinely interested in getting an answer to, because you are not the only one that highlights pack running. I can understand the moral support provided to the weaker runners elevating them when running in a pack, but that is at some expense to finishing times to the stronger runners in the pack? Maybe the argument is the stronger runners will just be able to kick harder if they were metering it down earlier.
But maybe the moral support is not as important at this level, versus high school runners. So then, are their other reasons , like strategies in positioning a pack on the course?
. Regarding Notre Dame, I don’t quite understand your infatuation with being able to run in a tight pack. Isn’t the more important thing to get runners, particularly their top 5, across the line ASAP?
This is a question I’m genuinely interested in getting an answer to, because you are not the only one that highlights pack running. I can understand the moral support provided to the weaker runners elevating them when running in a pack, but that is at some expense to finishing times to the stronger runners in the pack? Maybe the argument is the stronger runners will just be able to kick harder if they were metering it down earlier.
But maybe the moral support is not as important at this level, versus high school runners. So then, are their other reasons , like strategies in positioning a pack on the course?
Pack running is great, but as you point out, the positioning of the pack means much too. NM in 2021 had a very tight pack, and there have been others, but they did not have the runners far enough up. And this year, there are probably 4 teams that can have 3-4 runners each ahead of NDs 2nd, maybe 1st runner.
If you think Northwestern is going to be in the Top 5, then you’re not trying to make sense of (importance of filtering) or include what useful data is actually available. Your simulation doesn’t even include runners like Hartman or Kosgei.
The point is that LACCTIC simulations in early season greatly benefit from manual intervention.
well, knock yourself out, but I think as data come in what you show above will change a lot
My one and only conclusion, above any of the lesser details, was that NC State is the overwhelming favorite. I used all of the data available, with the aid of LACCTIC, to come to that conclusion.
But if you think that is conclusion is going to “change a lot”, then so be it and enjoy.
If you think Northwestern is going to be in the Top 5, then you’re not trying to make sense of (importance of filtering) or include what useful data is actually available. Your simulation doesn’t even include runners like Hartman or Kosgei.
The point is that LACCTIC simulations in early season greatly benefit from manual intervention.
I don't think they are going to finish top 5. I was simply saying that you need to include a full 31 team field to get accurate results and that including only 5 teams means you are scoring it like a dual meet. Where at a dual meet you could have your 5th man walk the whole race and you could still win.
As I clearly stated in my original post, I didn't do any manual adjustments. Because that was irrelevant to the point I was making above.
If you think Northwestern is going to be in the Top 5, then you’re not trying to make sense of (importance of filtering) or include what useful data is actually available. Your simulation doesn’t even include runners like Hartman or Kosgei.
The point is that LACCTIC simulations in early season greatly benefit from manual intervention.
I don't think they are going to finish top 5. I was simply saying that you need to include a full 31 team field to get accurate results and that including only 5 teams means you are scoring it like a dual meet. Where at a dual meet you could have your 5th man walk the whole race and you could still win.
As I clearly stated in my original post, I didn't do any manual adjustments. Because that was irrelevant to the point I was making above.
You seem to be ignoring the remainder of the presentation where the simulations eventually progressed to 15 teams with the inclusion of Notre Dame. As more teams are added, it becomes even clearer that NC State is currently the overwhelming favorite.
This seems fun for now, but it will be much more accurate and look quite different after Nutty and Prenats in 2 weeks.
My main conclusion from this initial exercise is that NC State is the favorite (which deviates from preseason polls), and a secondary conclusion is that Florida will need something extraordinary to happen, particularly with their 5th (which would likely need to be an athlete they haven’t run yet) in order to strongly contend with NC State for the trophy.
We can parse and parcel it further if desired, but I agree that we can now wait for Nutty and PreNats to provide further information that NC State is the favorite.😁
This seems fun for now, but it will be much more accurate and look quite different after Nutty and Prenats in 2 weeks.
Agree and I think Nuttycombe will give us an idea of where NC State really is for the first time. I expect their squad at Nuttycombe may be markedly different than the one that ran at Loyola. I'm still not sure that Napoleon will open at Nuttycombe. She has been racing pretty much nonstop since last XC season.
Here are the women teams participating at Nuttycombe. I have not seen the prenats list yet.
CBU Colorado Duke Furman Georgetown Gonzaga Harvard Indiana Iowa State Lipscomb Louisville Michigan Michigan State Minnesota New Mexico North Carolina North Carolina State Northern Arizona Northwestern Notre Dame Penn State Providence Stanford Syracuse Toledo Tulane Utah Washington
This seems fun for now, but it will be much more accurate and look quite different after Nutty and Prenats in 2 weeks.
My main conclusion from this initial exercise is that NC State is the favorite (which deviates from preseason polls), and a secondary conclusion is that Florida will need something extraordinary to happen, particularly with their 5th (which would likely need to be an athlete they haven’t run yet) in order to strongly contend with NC State for the trophy.
We can parse and parcel it further if desired, but I agree that we can now wait for Nutty and PreNats to provide further information that NC State is the favorite.😁
We await the 2025 NCAA DI Women’s Cross Country National Coaches’ Poll for Week 3 to be released soon, to see if they still have BYU as the favorite.
I don't know if this is the complete PreNats field, but I believe these teams will be there
BYU F Arkansas Boston College Clemson Florida Florida State Georgia Iowa Kansas Kentucky Liberty Mississippi Mississippi State Missouri Oklahoma State Penn State Purdue Texas Vanderbilt Tennessee
Note despite what this week's poll commentary says, the BYU W schedule shows them at PreNats.
BYU men saw the course at Gans Creek and the women are seeing it at pre-Nats. Split schedules that confuses some because seeing “BYU” on the schedule may not indicate if it is men or women.
Eyestone and Taylor seem to run their own separate programs, unlike most programs.
Note despite what this week's poll commentary says, the BYU W schedule shows them at PreNats.
BYU men saw the course at Gans Creek and the women are seeing it at pre-Nats. Split schedules that confuses some because seeing “BYU” on the schedule may not indicate if it is men or women.
Eyestone and Taylor seem to run their own separate programs, unlike most programs.