Hocker, Kerr, Jakob in that order.
I don't trust R. Cheruiyot to have his kick in a sub 3:30 race. I think Laros will be burned out. P. Koech is tactically naive. Strand is a wildcard but I think global level racing will be a big wake-up call for him - it's rough out there even compared to USAs.
I don't think Jakob has enough to win gold, but if there's one guy I trust to come back at close to his top level after a season of not racing, it's him. Anyone else and I'd say making the final would be an achievement, but he's different.
Kerr is the best tactical racer out there, and he has the strength and enough closing speed to be among the medals. Hocker isn't as good tactically but his superior wheels can give him the edge, but not always. It'll be tight between those two for gold.