Drew hunter came very close to crashing nico youngs party at the last olympic trials. As much as many of you hate to admit it, drew is the best runner in America who is not an olympian.
Not even close.
1) Ever heard of Chris Solinsky or Donovan Brazier?
2) If you are only talking active pros, Cooper Teare is younger and better and still not an Olympian. Teare has run 3:32/12:54. Hunter has run 334/1308
If you say so.
Only talking active runners.
Solinsky is way back near the matt tegancamp era. Very similar runners with very similar body types. Of course we can eliminate tegancamp because he made 2 olympic teams.
Running a certain standard is one thing, but hunter was still right on nicos heels at the trials and almost beat him. Also ran 357 mile in highschool. Nico didn't do that until he was a junior in college.
Olympic qualifying standards need to change to top 3 qualifying times OR top 3 at trials. Not a combination of both, and world athletics points ranking system need to be scrapped. Make 1 comprehensive list based on everyone's recent pr's, but scrap points immediately as they are pointless and not empirical.
1) Ever heard of Chris Solinsky or Donovan Brazier?
2) If you are only talking active pros, Cooper Teare is younger and better and still not an Olympian. Teare has run 3:32/12:54. Hunter has run 334/1308
If you say so.
Only talking active runners.
Solinsky is way back near the matt tegancamp era. Very similar runners with very similar body types. Of course we can eliminate tegancamp because he made 2 olympic teams.
Running a certain standard is one thing, but hunter was still right on nicos heels at the trials and almost beat him. Also ran 357 mile in highschool. Nico didn't do that until he was a junior in college.
Olympic qualifying standards need to change to top 3 qualifying times OR top 3 at trials. Not a combination of both, and world athletics points ranking system need to be scrapped. Make 1 comprehensive list based on everyone's recent pr's, but scrap points immediately as they are pointless and not empirical.
Near the Tegenkamp era? He and Solinsky were teammates.
If you watch the early seasons of Team Ingebrigtsen, you'll see that he has a huge growth spurt between the ages of 12 and 14.
It didn't seem to limit his progression though.
People have very short memories, as much of the discussion around Jakob in 2017-18 was that he wouldn't progress much beyond that point, because he'd been overtrained as a teenager.
They all physically matured early compared to their peers. Sam Ruthe is 15 but looks 19. If we didn't know Cam Myers age, we'd probably guess 20 or 21. We've seen this before with early-maturing runners like Drew Hunter. He ran 3:57 in HS only to have trouble finding those gains once his early physical maturity was no longer an advantage in his 20s. Alan Webb was a man child as an underclasmen.
Inevitably, all these other scrawny distance runners fill into their frame and catch up in physical maturity. And that's how you have relative unknowns compete with the best in championships. Those 10 minute 2 milers, like Brian Sell, make the olympics.
Now... if you see a scrawny, 5-foot-nothing boy in HS lighting the scene on fire...be scared...as the ceiling is a lot higher for him.
This has always been, and always will be, a case of selection bias. I think that's conventional wisdom by this point.
Take 100 junior athletes, and put the very best one against the other 99. Who is likely to be the best senior athlete? Well, the best junior athlete, of course! But there are 99 of them and 1 of him, and if the top guy at age 16 ends up "only" being 5th best at age 26, it looks like a failure. The problem wasn't that being #1 is a bad thing, it's that you stacked the deck against him by pitting one guy against the field.
For a thought experiment, imagine 10 junior athletes where Athlete 1 is the best at age 16 and Athlete 10 is the worst. Now at age 26, suppose the order is:
3, 1, 6, 4, 8, 2, 7, 5, 9, 10
So Athlete 3 is now the best, Athlete 1 is fighting just to out-kick Athlete 6, and what even happened to Athletes 2 and 5? But actually, the correlation between age-16 and age-26 performance here is 0.71, which is quite high. It means that not only does better age-16 performance predict better age-26 performance, but it's the single most important factor.
There's also the selection bias you mentioned, where junior stars are likely to be the best in every way. Most talented? Yes. Earliest maturity? Also yes. Best coaches, best teammates, highest motivation? Yes, yes, and yes.
On average, that is. And if you can see that a junior athlete is particularly mature or does particularly intense training, then perhaps he is not quite as talented as you might otherwise think. I'm honestly a little skeptical that our judgment is accurate on these cases. But even if it is, it's not a bad thing to be the top junior. If all else is equal, same training, same maturity level, and you're finishing mid-pack, that's clearly worse. And there isn't some sort of fragmented biology that makes fast-maturing runners peak at a lower level.
It's, as always, that there's some randomness built in. Not every top junior will be a top senior. But on average, it's certainly far better to be a junior star than a little bit off. Which is kind of obvious if you think about the best runners of the past 30 years. Gebreselassie, Radcliffe, Bekele, El Guerrouj, Kipchoge, Dibaba, Kipyegon, Kiplimo, Ingebrigtsen--all of them were junior stars on the world level. The fact that some world-beaters come from outside this rarified air doesn't change the fact that most of the very best do.
Drew hunter came very close to crashing nico youngs party at the last olympic trials. As much as many of you hate to admit it, drew is the best runner in America who is not an olympian.
Not even close.
1) Ever heard of Chris Solinsky or Donovan Brazier?
2) If you are only talking active pros, Cooper Teare is younger and better and still not an Olympian. Teare has run 3:32/12:54. Hunter has run 334/1308
The Nigel Amos vs Jakob comparison is unfair. Nigel's training nosedived after the first olympics (didn't he even stop to be a DJ?) and then the injury bug got him. Plus the whole age thing.
They all physically matured early compared to their peers. Sam Ruthe is 15 but looks 19. If we didn't know Cam Myers age, we'd probably guess 20 or 21. We've seen this before with early-maturing runners like Drew Hunter. He ran 3:57 in HS only to have trouble finding those gains once his early physical maturity was no longer an advantage in his 20s. Alan Webb was a man child as an underclasmen.
Inevitably, all these other scrawny distance runners fill into their frame and catch up in physical maturity. And that's how you have relative unknowns compete with the best in championships. Those 10 minute 2 milers, like Brian Sell, make the olympics.
Now... if you see a scrawny, 5-foot-nothing boy in HS lighting the scene on fire...be scared...as the ceiling is a lot higher for him.
Maturing early isn’t the thing. Ability and athleticism is what matters. Myers has a 3:47 and a 3:32 in his pocket already at 18. That means he doesn’t have much further to go to reach world class podium level. The same was true for Webb. If Myers can take a little more than 2 seconds off his indoor mile time he’s the world record holder in the event. He is already an elite athlete at 18.
If you watch the early seasons of Team Ingebrigtsen, you'll see that he has a huge growth spurt between the ages of 12 and 14.
It didn't seem to limit his progression though.
People have very short memories, as much of the discussion around Jakob in 2017-18 was that he wouldn't progress much beyond that point, because he'd been overtrained as a teenager.
Yeah, Jakob has been an outlier with his continuous improvement. In a way it would make sense that it would be more difficult to get gains as you haven't been changing your training stimuli. With Jakob, he has apparently done pretty much the same training for the last 7 years. Maybe if he would train one season harder (and being lucky enough to avoid injury) he could have one insane season. It is a big risk to take
This reminds me of how Kiptum's coach talked about Kelvin's unsustainable training load, which will lead to relatively fast burnout. But he managed to have his time in the sun. We'll never know how long he could have kept it going. My guess is 2 seasons max.
1) Ever heard of Chris Solinsky or Donovan Brazier?
2) If you are only talking active pros, Cooper Teare is younger and better and still not an Olympian. Teare has run 3:32/12:54. Hunter has run 334/1308
really? no love for josh hoey here?
Josh Hoey might as well not have existed before this year. Let him run more than 1 good indoor season before we call him the best non Olympian.
Maturing early isn’t the thing. Ability and athleticism is what matters. Myers has a 3:47 and a 3:32 in his pocket already at 18. That means he doesn’t have much further to go to reach world class podium level. The same was true for Webb. If Myers can take a little more than 2 seconds off his indoor mile time he’s the world record holder in the event. He is already an elite athlete at 18.
We have not seen an 18 year old this close to the podium since Ryun. I cant see him beating Hocker but he could give him a good run for his money.
And yes I know this is a more competitive era than Ryuns but Myers has also been running for longer than Ryun had been at that point.
