I certainly think Fisher is capable of sub-12:45 if he has someone near him and pushing until the last 800-1000, but I think he doesn’t quite get there if he’s alone the last 2000 and passing guys.
Then again, he gets better the longer the distance, so even a sub-12:40 wouldn’t totally shock me. But 12:47.88
I think he goes around 12:47 if he has to do the work by himself, or 12:44 (Yeah, I said it!) if he has a good pacer up front to smash the WR. The indoor 5k WR, like many of the indoor records is very weak. Only thing i'm sad about is Cole racing a 5k next week instead of this week. I would put a 100% bet on low 12:40s if he was also in this race.
I don't think he's gonna pull too many people to sub 13 though. When you have someone 10 seconds or so clear of the field, you don't really get to form that "train" that everyone gets to ride to a PR.
I think my glorious pookie bear king Yaseen breaks 13 though.
The 5000m isn’t within Hocker’s range and I doubt he will run much faster than 13:00.
I see I got downvoted on this post:
1500: 3:34-3:27.5=6.5 second advantage for Hocker.
3000: even-Steven
Does anyone see a trend? Relative to Fisher, the additional 2000m will not be kind to Hocker.
The 5000m isn’t within Hocker’s range and I doubt he will run much faster than 13:00.
I see I got downvoted on this post:
1500: 3:34-3:27.5=6.5 second advantage for Hocker.
3000: even-Steven
Does anyone see a trend? Relative to Fisher, the additional 2000m will not be kind to Hocker.
3:27.65 and 3:33.99 are their PRs but they’re not exactly apples to apples. I believe there’s more like a 3.5 second difference in their 1500 abilities. I do agree with you that Hocker hasn’t done anything yet to make us think low-12:40s is in play for him. Guys like Hocker, Nuguse and Kerr are super-elite up to 2-miles but have not proven to be super-elite time-trialers at 5k, at least not yet. When Hocker ran his 12:58.82 PR he placed 11th in the race, well behind the win, and he struggled in the OT 5k final. When Nuguse ran his 13:02 PR at BU, he ran out of gas a bit in the last 600 and was beaten by 3-5 seconds by Edwin Kurgat and George Mills. Kerr’s PR remains a dated 13:23 and he was quoted last year around the time of his 8:00 2-mile as saying he’s “the worst 5k runner in the world.” So while I’m confident that Hocker could smash his 5k PR right now, I can’t imagine him pushing Fisher into the low-12:40s in a virtual replay of the Millrose 3k.
Could Hocker beat Bekele’s 12:49.60i WR? The fact that it’s remotely conceivable is totally sick, and “bad news for Jakob Ingebrigtsen.”
Thank GOD he's full sending it and not doing the annoying "go out at 12:55-13:00 pace and try to run 12:40 in the last 2k. If his pacing entourage can get him to ~2.8-3k then this could be pretty crazy
An even splitted 12:42 would be crazy, but if he holds on and has any sort of kick we could be watching the 12:40 barrier. Something I didn't think I would be suggesting about an American anytime soon.
Thank GOD he's full sending it and not doing the annoying "go out at 12:55-13:00 pace and try to run 12:40 in the last 2k. If his pacing entourage can get him to ~2.8-3k then this could be pretty crazy
I was expecting 7:45 at 3k to set up a 4:5x final 2k. Annoying or not, it’s lower risk and much easier to do solo. 12:42 pace means 7:37 at 3k which is pretty aggressive. Do they have a rabbit that can make it that far?
Conservatively I would guess he could run 12:48 but realistically based on this past weekend I agree with the other predictions calling for sub 12:45
I think he could maximally run under 12:40, but if he has to push the last 10 laps alone 12:42 sounds like a good target pace and maybe he feels great and can kick off of it.
Thank GOD he's full sending it and not doing the annoying "go out at 12:55-13:00 pace and try to run 12:40 in the last 2k. If his pacing entourage can get him to ~2.8-3k then this could be pretty crazy
I was expecting 7:45 at 3k to set up a 4:5x final 2k. Annoying or not, it’s lower risk and much easier to do solo. 12:42 pace means 7:37 at 3k which is pretty aggressive. Do they have a rabbit that can make it that far?
Maybe Mantz? He's listed on the entry list.. both Utah based, both apart of REP
I feel pretty confidently that Sam Gilman is one of those that he hopes to pull under 13:00. Sam needs the standard and highly doubt he would be traveling to Boston to serve as a pacer. There are very few opportunities to achieve the 5k standard this year and this is the best chance. I don’t think we are going to see too many guys make the 13:01 mark this year. If I’m not mistaken the only American with this standard is Graham Blanks. Christian Noble is probably a pacer in this race.
I think you're probably right, but I'll point out that while there may not be many opportunities to get the 5k standard this year, if you're Grant Fisher's training partner and he owes you a pacing job, you'll be able to choose any meet any time, and get 5000m of perfect pacing.
Mantz is in fantastic shape, he ran like 45s faster than Ritz in the half, and Ritz ran a 12:56 5k. I don't know if that means he's ready for a 12:50 5k, but fwiw, Ritz ran it a year after finishing 9th in 2:11:59 at the Olympics (Mantz was 8th in 2:08:12), and 2 months after his 12:56, Ritz ran 60:00 (Mantz just ran 59:17). He's a frontrunner, so he'd probably be the perfect pacer for this, but with his fitness, he might be ready to throw down a nasty time.
Oh my god 12:42 pace???? From the gun????? Idek how to react to that it sounds so unbelievable.
I really hope he gets in some DL 5ks this year. Sounds like he's gonna be ready to actually compete with the half dozen 12:40 guys out there. This is 100% a must watch race I can't wait
Thank GOD he's full sending it and not doing the annoying "go out at 12:55-13:00 pace and try to run 12:40 in the last 2k. If his pacing entourage can get him to ~2.8-3k then this could be pretty crazy
Thought Grant would go out in 62s thru 3000 then negative split down to a 12:50 or under. Which is what he did last year, running 12:51.84, just missing Woody's 12:51.61 AR.
Pretty clear now Grant believes he is in the best time trial shape of his life and has reconsidered his original AR goal following Millrose.
Consider the following:
Grant's 7:22.91 indoor 3000 WR is approx 5.5 seconds slower than JI's 7:17.55 outdoor 3000 WR. Thus, seems reasonable to assume the indoor 5000 WR should be 9-10 seconds slower than Cheptegei's 12:35.36. Meaning, around 12:44 - 12:45.
However, Bekele's 12:49.60 is the current indoor 5000 WR. Comparatively soft, likely due to the fact the indoor 5000 is rarely, if every, raced outside the US. Given how close Grant and Woody have come to Bekele's time in recent years, pretty clear his WR is living on borrowed time.
But 12:42??!! And publicly state it's your goal two days out? That must be the biggest flex ever.
Given all this new info, believe a prior poster is correct in believing Gressier is the likely primary pacer, already having achieved his 13:01 Tokyo Q. He is probably the only one in the field who could tow Grant through 3000 in around 7:37.
Also, note that every t&f outdoor record is faster than its equivalent indoor record. Indicating indoor tracks are, almost certainly, not faster than outdoor 400 ovals for the world's best athletes. These select athletes simply have better fitness several months later in summertime.
So, if Grant does achieve his low-12:40s goal, an outdoor WR attempt at some point -- probably in 2026 -- will likely be in the cards.
Anticipating late Friday afternoon more than ever.