What does Mr. Jakob need to do to become the greatest 5k runner ever?

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Just Another Run of the Mill ex-D1 er wrote:

If I'm Jingy I'm going all in on breaking the 1500/mile WR's now - like in these last couple meets this year and/or next season. Once (if) mission accomplished, switch gears and hone in on the 5000 WR - 12:30 seems within reach.

Caveat: I'm not Jingy. 🤷

100%

This notion that because he's "only" 23 he will have seemingly infinite time at his absolute peak over the distance I just don't understand. El G (the GOAT) didn't, neither did Morceli, Coe, Walker, Ryun.

Hicham ran under 3.27 5 times and he only did it in 3 seasons. Twice in 98, once in 01 and twice in 02. And this was a guy who was really a 1500 specialist who ran only 5 non 1500m/mile races on the European circuit in 10 years (and when he ran them at the WCs and OGs it was 03/04 the last 2 seasons of his career). So the point is it was even tough for El G to bring this level to the table year after year and he had less "extra curricular" racing at other distances that Jakob.

If Jakob breaks 3.27 again this season it would be sensational. If he does it 3 times it would be historic. But this is why I agree with you that if he wants to challenge these records he has to go for it within the next 12 months. The mile in particular is so much weaker (comparatively) to the 1500 - he can smash this and really make it tough (put it into the 3.42.6/7 range). I really wonder why he didn't ask for a mile either here or in Zurich - it seems like a long time since they ran a mile in Zurich in particular and that is a super historic venue for miling.

The 1500m will be very tough for him. It does need 2.45.5 at 1200m which needs an opening lap closer to 55.0 and we know this is getting right to his limit because 54.8 compromised him in Paris. Lausanne will be super interesting to see what he asks for pace wise. Because of WL and his ability to sustain pace we can basically guess exactly what his intentions are based on the requested pace.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

Just Another Run of the Mill ex-D1 er wrote:

If I'm Jingy I'm going all in on breaking the 1500/mile WR's now - like in these last couple meets this year and/or next season. Once (if) mission accomplished, switch gears and hone in on the 5000 WR - 12:30 seems within reach.

Caveat: I'm not Jingy. 🤷

100%

This notion that because he's "only" 23 he will have seemingly infinite time at his absolute peak over the distance I just don't understand. El G (the GOAT) didn't, neither did Morceli, Coe, Walker, Ryun.

Hicham ran under 3.27 5 times and he only did it in 3 seasons. Twice in 98, once in 01 and twice in 02. And this was a guy who was really a 1500 specialist who ran only 5 non 1500m/mile races on the European circuit in 10 years (and when he ran them at the WCs and OGs it was 03/04 the last 2 seasons of his career). So the point is it was even tough for El G to bring this level to the table year after year and he had less "extra curricular" racing at other distances that Jakob.

If Jakob breaks 3.27 again this season it would be sensational. If he does it 3 times it would be historic. But this is why I agree with you that if he wants to challenge these records he has to go for it within the next 12 months. The mile in particular is so much weaker (comparatively) to the 1500 - he can smash this and really make it tough (put it into the 3.42.6/7 range). I really wonder why he didn't ask for a mile either here or in Zurich - it seems like a long time since they ran a mile in Zurich in particular and that is a super historic venue for miling.

The 1500m will be very tough for him. It does need 2.45.5 at 1200m which needs an opening lap closer to 55.0 and we know this is getting right to his limit because 54.8 compromised him in Paris. Lausanne will be super interesting to see what he asks for pace wise. Because of WL and his ability to sustain pace we can basically guess exactly what his intentions are based on the requested pace.

automorphic wrote:

OK, I'm going to say something controverisal, but it's possible that Ingebrigtsen is hugely overrated in the 5k. He rarely contests it outside of global championships, and while those races have gone REALLY well for him, that doesn't automatically mean that he would be equally good at all aspects of the distance.

Here are a couple of possible ways Jakob could be overrated:

1) Maybe he's not as good in fast races as slow ones. The counterargument is his incredible two-mile time, but perhaps he's at the very top of his range and would fall off significantly at 5k. For comparison, El Guerrouj ran 3:26 and 7:23, but "only" ran 12:50. Daniel Komen ran 7:20 and 12:39, but "only" 3:29 in the 1500m pointing to a 5k time for Jakob above 12:40. Extremely good, but not the mid-12:30s that others can do these days.

Carrying on, one can point to his 12:48 (outkicking Kiplimo), and his own statements that his best distance is the half marathon. On the latter point, I don't put a lot of stock in comments unless they're at least somewhat backed up in races--and it's very unlikely that Jakob is correct in that comment. Abiout the 12:48, that was from 2021, when he ran 3:28 to win the Olympic final. Extrapolating his ~1.5 second improvement in the 1500 since then gives roughly at 12:42 5000m.

All of this is to say that while Jakob MIGHT be capable of a mid-12:30s 5k, there is certainly no guarantee that he is.

2) Perhaps he's not consistent or only excels in certain types of races. Bekele not only won Worlds in 2009, but he also won the Golden League jackpot by winning all six races (five 5k's and a 3k). Could Jakob have done the same? He's won the past three global championships, plus that circuit race against Kiplimo, so the answer very well may be 'yes'. But that's quite a bit different from beating all challengers week after week.

About race styles, it's interesting that all three of Jakob's global 5000m titles were won in similar times (13:09, 13:11, 13:13). All of them had a roughly similar ramp-up and fast last lap. Could he have won these races if the finish time had been 12:45? What about 13:45? It's certainly possible, but we just don't know.

I post all of this only to mention the possibility that Jakob is overrated in these ways. He's certainly the best championship 5000m runner in the world right now, and could prove to be just as good or better in paced races. He could pivot to the 5000 and become the consensus GOAT of the event. But unless and until that happens, there's still a lot of uncertainty as to his ability in the event, even with the success he's had so far.

All he needs wrote:

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

100%

This notion that because he's "only" 23 he will have seemingly infinite time at his absolute peak over the distance I just don't understand. El G (the GOAT) didn't, neither did Morceli, Coe, Walker, Ryun.

Hicham ran under 3.27 5 times and he only did it in 3 seasons. Twice in 98, once in 01 and twice in 02. And this was a guy who was really a 1500 specialist who ran only 5 non 1500m/mile races on the European circuit in 10 years (and when he ran them at the WCs and OGs it was 03/04 the last 2 seasons of his career). So the point is it was even tough for El G to bring this level to the table year after year and he had less "extra curricular" racing at other distances that Jakob.

If Jakob breaks 3.27 again this season it would be sensational. If he does it 3 times it would be historic. But this is why I agree with you that if he wants to challenge these records he has to go for it within the next 12 months. The mile in particular is so much weaker (comparatively) to the 1500 - he can smash this and really make it tough (put it into the 3.42.6/7 range). I really wonder why he didn't ask for a mile either here or in Zurich - it seems like a long time since they ran a mile in Zurich in particular and that is a super historic venue for miling.

The 1500m will be very tough for him. It does need 2.45.5 at 1200m which needs an opening lap closer to 55.0 and we know this is getting right to his limit because 54.8 compromised him in Paris. Lausanne will be super interesting to see what he asks for pace wise. Because of WL and his ability to sustain pace we can basically guess exactly what his intentions are based on the requested pace.

My guess, and I can be completely wrong, is that his final shot at the 1500m WR is this season, and he is going all in on this and the 3k WR. Next season he will attempt the 5k WR early on, similar to his 2 mile. Then, attempt the mile later on in the season a month out from worlds. If all goes perfectly, and I mean perfectly, he’ll hold every record from 1500-5000m. But more likely only the mile-5000. After 25, his chance at records are only going to go down and down so he better attempt the 10k as well somewhere in there. Or maybe he does none of this and somehow he gets better and better every year.

Salvitore Stitchmo wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

To be the GOAT 5k runner he “merely” needs to break the WR and win gold in LA ‘28. I expect he’ll add more WC golds/medals but ultimately those are window dressing.

I was going to answer exactly that. It's the 2028 Gold and the WR. And all your reasonings are right on.

It's a really interesting one because a completely plausible scenario is him winning two more world titles and one more Olympic title but not getting the WR. That gives him 4&2 which is something nobody would have done. I'm also assuming that by 2028 at the very least he will have a historically elite performance around 12.40.0 so that eliminates the "Farah factor" of having the medals but physically being so far back on the track in terms of ceiling performance. But is that enough to surpass KB? I just think we are at the point in all events - certainly on the mens side, where to be the greatest ever you need to have been at some point the fastest human to ever run the distance.

I do believe the WR matters more than even 2 more (3?) world titles and one more OG. Bekeles old 5000m WR is still one of the most impressive straight up performances ever run across any distance - he only had pacing for 2000m and no lights to support him (you can see how much that impacted him by his splits which were far from efficient). 4 world titles, 2 Olympic titles probably points to him being the best 5000m runner, but when you have to go across eras it would leave him just short of the GOAT moniker.

So yeah, the WR and LA and we have the greatest ever, agree.

Yaaaaas wrote:

Run it wrote:

It would help if he ran the 5k more than just at championships.

I think we all would, but he recognizes that he is the best in the world at it, so why bother run it more than he has to at his current age? He understands his peak time is limited in the shorter distances, 1500/mile. Yes, we all know those are not his best events, but he still is an all-time great at the distances (you can argue on a million other threads where he ranks with respect to others, but I’m not doing that here). An Olympic gold, 2 WC silvers, and #4 and #3 all-time while only being 23 years old is a resume anyone else would love to swap with. He still has time left to improve this legacy. His 4th place finish at the Olympics was extremely dumb tactically, but it still was the fastest solo 1500 ever. There are zero reasons for him to give up the event just because he only front ran a 3:28.

Him being obsessed with the 1500 makes him unbeatable in these slower championship style 5000 races. Nobody is going to beat him in the final 1600 when they come thru north of 9 minutes. A day will come when he decides to focus more on the 5k, but I think his best bet is to continue racing 1500s for as long as he can because that will continue to make him unbeatable in the 5k.

edit: He is also in a very nice cycle of winning 5k global championships and maintaining a very high world ranking and getting the previous world champion wild card slot as a result of him winning. He has it so easy to go from one global championship to another without ever having to jump into a fast DL 5000.

automorphic wrote:

OK, I'm going to say something controverisal, but it's possible that Ingebrigtsen is hugely overrated in the 5k. He rarely contests it outside of global championships, and while those races have gone REALLY well for him, that doesn't automatically mean that he would be equally good at all aspects of the distance.

Here are a couple of possible ways Jakob could be overrated:

1) Maybe he's not as good in fast races as slow ones. The counterargument is his incredible two-mile time, but perhaps he's at the very top of his range and would fall off significantly at 5k. For comparison, El Guerrouj ran 3:26 and 7:23, but "only" ran 12:50. Daniel Komen ran 7:20 and 12:39, but "only" 3:29 in the 1500m pointing to a 5k time for Jakob above 12:40. Extremely good, but not the mid-12:30s that others can do these days.

Carrying on, one can point to his 12:48 (outkicking Kiplimo), and his own statements that his best distance is the half marathon. On the latter point, I don't put a lot of stock in comments unless they're at least somewhat backed up in races--and it's very unlikely that Jakob is correct in that comment. Abiout the 12:48, that was from 2021, when he ran 3:28 to win the Olympic final. Extrapolating his ~1.5 second improvement in the 1500 since then gives roughly at 12:42 5000m.

All of this is to say that while Jakob MIGHT be capable of a mid-12:30s 5k, there is certainly no guarantee that he is.

2) Perhaps he's not consistent or only excels in certain types of races. Bekele not only won Worlds in 2009, but he also won the Golden League jackpot by winning all six races (five 5k's and a 3k). Could Jakob have done the same? He's won the past three global championships, plus that circuit race against Kiplimo, so the answer very well may be 'yes'. But that's quite a bit different from beating all challengers week after week.

About race styles, it's interesting that all three of Jakob's global 5000m titles were won in similar times (13:09, 13:11, 13:13). All of them had a roughly similar ramp-up and fast last lap. Could he have won these races if the finish time had been 12:45? What about 13:45? It's certainly possible, but we just don't know.

I post all of this only to mention the possibility that Jakob is overrated in these ways. He's certainly the best championship 5000m runner in the world right now, and could prove to be just as good or better in paced races. He could pivot to the 5000 and become the consensus GOAT of the event. But unless and until that happens, there's still a lot of uncertainty as to his ability in the event, even with the success he's had so far.