If Hocker could close like that in a 3:27 race then I think Hocker wins this race regardless of tactics unless he got boxed in somewhere in a crowded finish. Remember, Hocker didn't just outkick everyone in a fast race, he started his kick, got cut off and had to back off and then had to re-start his kick and still blew the doors off of Kerr and Ingebritsen...
I don't think Cole Hocker was beatable in that race. I don't know if Jacob paid attention to him in the rounds, but if he did, he should have been worried. I think if Jacob runs a less Kamikaze style race, he takes Bronze. Not sure that matters much to him.
didnt the kenyans say they were going to run team tactics? They looked like they were ready to pull and jingy should have let them and then when they dropped off pulled an el guerroj and wound it up from 750 to go
Yes, he should have run the Tokyo splits.
First 400m in 56 low which is just moderate enough that someone else would take over as their best shot at a medal. 800m in 1:51 high instead of 1:51 low with a positive split (which allowed the field to reposition behind him) and taking on the burden of leading himself. From there he can crank up the pace over the final 700m without having killed himself on the first two laps and make it much harder in the home straight. I don't see three going past him in these circumstances.
Obviously it would have been a gamble but so was front running, but it would have been a gamble on fitness plus tactics instead of purely fitness.
56-55-54. He would have dropped everyone.
Yes, it seems clear to me that Komen positioned himself at the front of the race to give Cheruiyot a ride but Ingebrigtsen pushed the pace too hard, too early to make this necessary/work.
the name of the thread is "is there anyway he could win" not what did he do wrong lol. its a hypothetical scenario that looked plausible, just let Tim pace - hocker and kerr were never going to...
Soy wrote:
He should have built his entire strategy around the same approach - and literally same person - that got him his only other 1500 medal. It's been increasingly clear that Cheriyot was fit and going to be a banker to take it out 'hard enough'. Sit on him for 600 and then take over and drive it home from there.
Taking out the opening 400 alone - including a surge - was utterly suicidal.
He had one path to victory, and he didn't take it.
Cheruiyot was never gonna repeat his role from Tokyo.
It seems unlikely he’ll ever win by front running the majority of the race, he’s 0-4 now in global 1500m finals with that tactic. I don’t see how he has any choice but to try a more tactical race and take his chances. Everyone says he has no kick but we’ve seen him close a world 5k in 52 and world/Euro 1500s in 53 so his raw speed isn’t that different from his competitors.
I’m not saying he should jog around and then attempt a 200m sprint, but he should absolutely be more patient and see if someone like Yared or Komen keeps the pace honest (which isn’t unrealistic- Yared was prepared to lead). Then Jakob can take the lead with 600m or 400m El G-style and ratchet up the pace from there.
Certainly no guarantee he wins like this but it’s better odds than his current strategy of taking the lead early and running uneven splits with mid race surges.
If he runs a better tactical race like this and still loses the next 2 WC, then he should probably refocus solely on 1500m time trials and then attempt a historic 10k/steeple/5k triple in 2028.
Honestly, I don't think so. The only way it seemed possible to beat Cole was to make the race lightning-quick, and that's exactly what Jakob did. Cole is just better. I do think his best strategy was still to make a long drive for home in the last 800-1000m, rather than pushing it from the gun, and I think he would've likely gotten a medal in a race like that. But I don't know if I see any world in which Cole loses this race (in hindsight).
And one of them is still not an olympic champion, and likely never will be.
KM509 wrote:
It seems unlikely he’ll ever win by front running the majority of the race, he’s 0-4 now in global 1500m finals with that tactic. I don’t see how he has any choice but to try a more tactical race and take his chances. Everyone says he has no kick but we’ve seen him close a world 5k in 52 and world/Euro 1500s in 53 so his raw speed isn’t that different from his competitors.
I’m not saying he should jog around and then attempt a 200m sprint, but he should absolutely be more patient and see if someone like Yared or Komen keeps the pace honest (which isn’t unrealistic- Yared was prepared to lead). Then Jakob can take the lead with 600m or 400m El G-style and ratchet up the pace from there.
Certainly no guarantee he wins like this but it’s better odds than his current strategy of taking the lead early and running uneven splits with mid race surges.
If he runs a better tactical race like this and still loses the next 2 WC, then he should probably refocus solely on 1500m time trials and then attempt a historic 10k/steeple/5k triple in 2028.
Yes, I think he should have one more year chasing the 1500 WR and a global final with different tactics, and if that doesn't work, then move up to the 5000 and 1000 and totally dominate the Africans.
He, and of course his brothers, along with Nick Willis and Jake Wightman, demolished the idea that Kenyans and Moroccans have any advantage at 1500m. Now do the same (I know he already has to a large extent at 5000) for the distance events, including eventually the marathon. Jakob could still end up having the WR AND an Olympic gold medal at every event from the 1500m to the Marathon, including the steeplechase.
Say he ran perfect splits and runs 3:27 low.. cole likely doesn't get tripped up and is right there with him, maybe beats him. So yeah, the El g strategy seems like a higher % of winning but what he did wasn't truly terrible. He got a little overzealous, but it is challenging to run perfect splits when you're setting the pace. it seems like his actual plan was more or less what most people on this thread are recommending.
Drifting out was dumb though. Tactical.error. that lost him bronze prob
I'm also betting his kick is quite solid in a 3:27-28 race if he can close a 5k in 52. Probably a bit underrated. But I guess when you're up against 3 studs, every tenth matters
What's the best close ever in a 15? Does he ever try that strategy?
Possibly a slower first 400 and then a push from 800 would have worked but I think it was Hocker's day no matter the tactics (unless it was bad tactics by Hocker which it wasn't). I disagree with a couple posters who have said Hocker will never run faster. Given his first surge in the home stretch being cutoff and having to surge again I think he could go even faster if he hits his current fitness level again in the future. With the young talent of today (Hocker, Nuguse, Kessler, Laros, Nordas) there are going to be some really fast times in the next few years.
Very little chance. The world has caught up to him. Run sub-3:29 on even splits in every Olympics until 2024, you win without challenge. But now multiple runners match that pace, then kick furiously.
If he wants to win from the front, he's gotta go sub 3:27. And apparently, he cannot do that, not without pacing lights.
Hocker, line and sinkerr wrote:
He tried what some had been advocating for, to push the pace even harder and earlier than 2021-2022. In hindsight, that left too little left in his tank, and the other three were able to hang on even for 3:27.
Some have called this strategy brainless. But would it have gone much differently if he didn't try to lead so much of the race? With the strength Hocker and Kerr showed, they would be hard to outkick in a slower race.
He could, and should, have gone out more controlled, of course, a second slower in the opening lap. But would it have made any difference? Would driving from 700-800 out help much in this race?
I am not so sure. Championship 1500s will always put him in a double bind, given his strengths.
yes.
(1) he shouldn't have gone out so fast. He should have let other people do the work and then have made a big kick with 800m to go.
(2) After going out as fast as he did, he should have run the next lap in about 58. I think that would have been fast enough where no one would gone around him. Then with 600-700 to go, he should have made a move
Either of these options might not have gotten Jakob gold, but they definitely get him a medal
hindsighttt wrote:
I don't think Cole Hocker was beatable in that race. I don't know if Jacob paid attention to him in the rounds, but if he did, he should have been worried. I think if Jacob runs a less Kamikaze style race, he takes Bronze. Not sure that matters much to him.
Hocker is beatable if you don't leave it to a kick. Hocker can beat anyone in a kick. But if Jakob wound it up from 800m out no one but Kerr would have been able to hang with him
The only way he can win a 1500 is if someone else sets a fast pace like Tim C did in Tokyo.
He’s now won only 1 out of his 6 global championship 1500 races. It’s now clear that Tokyo was an aberration. He needs to stop banging his head against the wall. He is no El G and never will be. Time for him to move up to 5k and 10k.
Hocker, line and sinkerr wrote:
He tried what some had been advocating for, to push the pace even harder and earlier than 2021-2022. In hindsight, that left too little left in his tank, and the other three were able to hang on even for 3:27.
Some have called this strategy brainless. But would it have gone much differently if he didn't try to lead so much of the race? With the strength Hocker and Kerr showed, they would be hard to outkick in a slower race.
He could, and should, have gone out more controlled, of course, a second slower in the opening lap. But would it have made any difference? Would driving from 700-800 out help much in this race?
I am not so sure. Championship 1500s will always put him in a double bind, given his strengths.
So that's where we are in hindsight? We all knew the fastest guy with best time had zero chance. Man we are smart. He was the best athlete in the field. And he lost. It happens.
potatoteampacer wrote:
didnt the kenyans say they were going to run team tactics? They looked like they were ready to pull and jingy should have let them and then when they dropped off pulled an el guerroj and wound it up from 750 to go
Kenyans and Ethiopians have been idiots when it comes to individual tactics, so not going to place much trust in team tactics.