I fail to see how this race demonstrates fatigue beginning to happen from an early peak. What actually happened is that the race was too slow for Nico's style of racing. He's an aerobic beast with a world-class anaerobic engine, but today his anaerobic engine was tested far more and Parker Wolfe won.
His confident surge at 300 bodes well for the trials if he learns from this experience.
But what Mike Smith has been saying all year is that Nico's kick is at another level. This type of race was EXACTLY what Nico wanted and it's exactly the type of race he'll get at the Olympic Trials.
Nico had run 1:47 and 3:34 and his 3:48 mile conversion. This type of race is what they were preparing for but they peaked too early.
It is not a coaching fail. It is that even very good college runners get fatigued, get tired legs, peak, have down races, etc. Run enough hard races and it can catch up.
more likely he is training through this meet on his way to the 10,000 at the trials
If I was him, that’s what I would have done. After indoors and the 26:52 I would have thought I could train through and still win. Probably could have with different tactics. Wolfe is a force, though.
The 10k is in 13 days. This is his peak right here.
If he actually trained through this then he's even more screwed at the Olympic Trials than I previously thought.
How short do people think a peak is ? 1 week? 3 days? Anyone can lose when there is that many runners going into the bell. I admit his 12:58 is more about super shoes, but he is still very good, but Wolfe ran great at conference, Nico did not, so this isn’t an upset by any means
I fail to see how this race demonstrates fatigue beginning to happen from an early peak. What actually happened is that the race was too slow for Nico's style of racing. He's an aerobic beast with a world-class anaerobic engine, but today his anaerobic engine was tested far more and Parker Wolfe won.
His confident surge at 300 bodes well for the trials if he learns from this experience.
But what Mike Smith has been saying all year is that Nico's kick is at another level. This type of race was EXACTLY what Nico wanted and it's exactly the type of race he'll get at the Olympic Trials.
Nico had run 1:47 and 3:34 and his 3:48 mile conversion. This type of race is what they were preparing for but they peaked too early.
Parker ran 3:54.17 indoors (in beating Gary Martin & Ethan Strand) and 3:36.25 outdoors (finishing 0.65 seconds behind Strand), and he said in his interview with John Anderson that they had been working on his speed over the last 400 given what happened at Indoor Nats. Losing a close race when Robinson, Young, and Wolfe all closed in 1:52 doesn't mean he has peaked too early.
Regarding Nico I was impressed with how he clawed back second place. He looked done at the top of the homestretch and when he fell to third he could have mailed it in. He was fighting all the way to the tape and re-passed Robinson, and wasn't losing any more ground to Wolfe at that point.
Wolfe was awesome, looks like a player for the future. 5000m is getting to be a tough event in the USA. It's taking longer than I thought, but eventually some of these 1500m/5000m talents are gonna spill into the steeple and we'll have a group of sub 8:10 guys.
Parker Wolfe was actually running exceptional times in college at an age younger than Colin Sahlman's high school exploits. After running 8:43.91 2 Mile at 17 years old, he went to UNC and ran 7:52 3k/3:41.03 1500m at 18 as a freshman (born July 27, 2003). At just 20, he has run 3:54/7:37/13:13, and you can expect the 5000m pr to go down a lot more now. Of course, this was not the race Young should have run. He needed a faster pace to dust the field and Blanks upset the plan by going hard at 800m, though he wasn't ready to sustain it. But Wolfe is a great distance prospect.
Parker Wolfe was actually running exceptional times in college at an age younger than Colin Sahlman's high school exploits. After running 8:43.91 2 Mile at 17 years old, he went to UNC and ran 7:52 3k/3:41.03 1500m at 18 as a freshman (born July 27, 2003). At just 20, he has run 3:54/7:37/13:13, and you can expect the 5000m pr to go down a lot more now. Of course, this was not the race Young should have run. He needed a faster pace to dust the field and Blanks upset the plan by going hard at 800m, though he wasn't ready to sustain it. But Wolfe is a great distance prospect.
I think Wolfe flew under the radar because his senior year of HS was 2020/21, which was all wonky with Covid. But he won Garmin Running Lane in 2020 handily, ran the fastest ever time on the Colorado XC state course, broke a 40 year old HS state 1600 record, etc. Everything he did was indicative of a top-tier talent. He just didn’t quite get the attention of a typical NXN champion or the Newbury Park guys.
Yeah Nico has been working on his kick and probably believed he could outkick the field from 800m. He almost did. But, Wolfe was just faster this time.
Good post. I’m not liking how most people are characterizing this more like a Nico failure than a Wolfe triumph.
Last 800 splits:
Wolfe - 1:52.10
Young - 1:52.42
Robinson - 1:52.85
No one else in the race was under 1:55.
Perhaps Young should have tried a different tactic in hindsight, but the blazing last 800 worked for him twice indoors so it wasn’t illogical. Closing in 1:52.4 really doesn’t mean he’s past his peak or that he can’t kick at an elite level, it just wasn’t his day to win. Give all the credit to Wolfe, who proved himself as a major player at just 20 years old.
I largely agree, especially since indoors Nico ran 1:54 twice and won twice. The 5k was like 30s faster though. It's not so much that a blazing last 800 isn't a good strategy, just that leaving it a 13:55 race means leaving more people in it at the last 800. Plenty of people saying that Blanks kept Nico from making his move for a lap, but Blanks may not have been able to make a move like that if the pace had been more like it was indoors.
And for what it's worth, I don't think anyone else in the field has run 3:34. Not too surprising that he'd be confident in his kick. Wolfe's 1:52 was just better.
Also, in another thread you said you said "What we saw was two collegians who are ready to seriously challenge for top 3 at the Trials". Why do you say that? I think Nico is a favorite for the 10k, but that's more because he has the standard than anything. Wolfe would have to go in the 5k, and as good as a 1:52 close is, I think Kincaid and Teare are still on a different level. Fisher is on a different level from them, and although he's a bit more vulnerable in a kick, I think he learned not to leave it till the last 800 when he lost to Klecker. Plus Nur can throw down a nasty last k. I think the top 3 will be well clear of Wolfe, but maybe I'm still underestimating him.
I personally don’t think any of the college distance athletes are gonna’ make any of the U.S. teams. Waskom and Young have the best shots, but I think the skill set is too high for the pros.
I don't think Nico Young choked. Parker Wolfe has been dropping PRs all over the place and could very well be in sub-13 shape. Wolfe could easily be on his way to Paris himself.
I don't think Nico Young choked. Parker Wolfe has been dropping PRs all over the place and could very well be in sub-13 shape. Wolfe could easily be on his way to Paris himself.
He looks great but as another poster pointed out, he doesn’t have the Olympic standard.