Not specific to Cranny but I'd say anyone's chances of medalling are better in the 10,000
The 5000 will be a shootout between some beasts, I think the 10 is more likely to resemble previous ones where 2x run off the front chasing a big time and leave the rest of the pack muddling for bronze.
I think a 10,000m Bronze is the most likely of any medals tbh
To elaborate on my first post, if WORLD MEDALS is the primary concern then again it's all a wash.
But for her career I suppose double 5000/10000 US champ is a better look and more profitable than getting the snot beat out of her in the 1500.. ESP, Hiltz, and then a wildcard Sinclair/McGee/Wiley have that team locked up. Although Cranny ultimately is in a better spot than those others as someone like McGee has never shown interest in anything longer
ESP is a lock, but Cranny was not far off Hiltz last year in both the AR mile race where both she and Hiltz broke the AR and Hiltz came by her in the final bit and in overall performance with Cranny’s 3:58. That was focusing on 5/10k. If she sharpens she is absolutely in the Hiltz tier although I agree I would favor Hiltz, Johnson, and Wiley over her. Not McGee, I think her time has come and gone.
To elaborate on my first post, if WORLD MEDALS is the primary concern then again it's all a wash.
But for her career I suppose double 5000/10000 US champ is a better look and more profitable than getting the snot beat out of her in the 1500.. ESP, Hiltz, and then a wildcard Sinclair/McGee/Wiley have that team locked up. Although Cranny ultimately is in a better spot than those others as someone like McGee has never shown interest in anything longer
ESP is a lock, but Cranny was not far off Hiltz last year in both the AR mile race where both she and Hiltz broke the AR and Hiltz came by her in the final bit and in overall performance with Cranny’s 3:58. That was focusing on 5/10k. If she sharpens she is absolutely in the Hiltz tier although I agree I would favor Hiltz, Johnson, and Wiley over her. Not McGee, I think her time has come and gone.
That was before injury and coaching changes, nothing we've seen shows she's on that tier this year.
She's going to run the 5000 for sure and is a likely favorite to make the team. I don't think we want to read too much into these early races as we don't know how heavy her workload has been. Elise has shown she doesn't necessarily need to race fast early to perform at the trials. I think her track record over the last several years is more important than her performance last week.
She'll double back in the 1500 at trials as long as she feels good after the 5000m. I expect she'll do better than most are giving her credit for. Rounds are different than a one off 1500m, and her endurance will help with that. Lastly, with all the talk of so and so is a sub4 runner now, Elise still has the second fastest 1500 time in the qualifying window to ESP. Elise's time was enroute to the second fastest mile in American history. Hiltz, Wiley, Johnson, McKay, McGee, etc. have not run faster than she ran while still having 100m to go in a race in the last year. The goal in the 1500 should be to run well, get some work in fast paced tactical racing and kicking off a faster pace. This could benefit her in the 5000 at the Olympics where she'll just be trying to get to the bell in a position to medal and then make something happen.
I agree with those who say she shouldn't run the 10,000m. No point, she doesn't like it, she'd need to run a fast 10,000 at the trials to make it worth it and even then, she's hoping to get in on ranking and others withdrawing. I think Valby should focus on the 10,000m though, and see how she handles trying to stay with the top women since she doesn't have the kick to close an elite 5000m race.
This winter, Elise should shake up her routine though and do Cross Country. Just go to Europe for a month or so and get on the cross country race circuit and have fun racing then do US Team Trials and Worlds.
To clarify, while she would probably be more likely to make the team in the 10,000 I think she should run her best event (5000) and then her favorite event (1500). No use sinking energy into a 10,000 when it won’t be her focus and on the world level it is her least competitive event.
I tend to agree with this because of the Trials schedule and she likes the 1500m.
Is the schedule the same at the Olympics though? The Olympics are also having repechage rounds in the 1500m this year. Which could make doubling harder (assuming she or ESP make both teams).
Fwiw it does sound like ESP is focused on the 1500m only.
I agree with those who say she shouldn't run the 10,000m. No point, she doesn't like it, she'd need to run a fast 10,000 at the trials to make it worth it and even then, she's hoping to get in on ranking and others withdrawing. I think Valby should focus on the 10,000m though, and see how she handles trying to stay with the top women since she doesn't have the kick to close an elite 5000m race.
This winter, Elise should shake up her routine though and do Cross Country. Just go to Europe for a month or so and get on the cross country race circuit and have fun racing then do US Team Trials and Worlds.
Valby seems to be born for the 10k. She is so much faster than any other college runners at 10k but the gap is a lot close at 5k and lower.
I disagree though regarding closing speed - at least for US competitions. She closed her 14:52 run pretty well and has a very strong chance to make the 5k team given the lack of healthy competition this year, plus the heat. She should double 5k/ 10k at the trials.
ESP is a lock, but Cranny was not far off Hiltz last year in both the AR mile race where both she and Hiltz broke the AR and Hiltz came by her in the final bit and in overall performance with Cranny’s 3:58. That was focusing on 5/10k. If she sharpens she is absolutely in the Hiltz tier although I agree I would favor Hiltz, Johnson, and Wiley over her. Not McGee, I think her time has come and gone.
That was before injury and coaching changes, nothing we've seen shows she's on that tier this year.
Different times of year. last year she opened at 2:00/4:07 and didn’t run 3:58 until July. This year coming off injury and coaching change she opened at 2:02/4:09 and by May ran 4:02. Any real doubt she can run sub 4 in 2 months?
There are only 27 entrants in the 10,000m. So if she can qualify in the 10,000m that's probably her best bet at finishing relatively high assuming she doesn't have a bad race and some other people do have a bad race.
Not specific to Cranny but I'd say anyone's chances of medalling are better in the 10,000
The 5000 will be a shootout between some beasts, I think the 10 is more likely to resemble previous ones where 2x run off the front chasing a big time and leave the rest of the pack muddling for bronze.
I think a 10,000m Bronze is the most likely of any medals tbh
No American women, this year, has the slightest chance to medal in the 5 or 10k, in any circumstance, against the Africans.
Not specific to Cranny but I'd say anyone's chances of medalling are better in the 10,000
The 5000 will be a shootout between some beasts, I think the 10 is more likely to resemble previous ones where 2x run off the front chasing a big time and leave the rest of the pack muddling for bronze.
I think a 10,000m Bronze is the most likely of any medals tbh
No American women, this year, has the slightest chance to medal in the 5 or 10k, in any circumstance, against the Africans.
Agreed. Even Cranny and Schweizer at their best wouldn't be medal threats in the 5k or 10k right now. The Ethiopians are taking these championship races out hard, and the US runners just aren't good enough right now. Finishing 6th or so is very much in play, and is actually still really good! Medaling just isn't possible with 3 Ethiopians and 3 Kenyans in the race a number of other excellent runners from Uganda or Kenyan/Ethiopian transplants at an oil state.
Not specific to Cranny but I'd say anyone's chances of medalling are better in the 10,000
The 5000 will be a shootout between some beasts, I think the 10 is more likely to resemble previous ones where 2x run off the front chasing a big time and leave the rest of the pack muddling for bronze.
I think a 10,000m Bronze is the most likely of any medals tbh
No American women, this year, has the slightest chance to medal in the 5 or 10k, in any circumstance, against the Africans.
ESP beat Tsegay a few months ago, and Tsegay is a medal favorite in any event she runs. Having done that, I would give ESP a chance of medaling in a tactical 5000. You can't say that she has no chance to medal in a 5000 given how good she was at 3000 this winter.
No American women, this year, has the slightest chance to medal in the 5 or 10k, in any circumstance, against the Africans.
ESP beat Tsegay a few months ago, and Tsegay is a medal favorite in any event she runs. Having done that, I would give ESP a chance of medaling in a tactical 5000. You can't say that she has no chance to medal in a 5000 given how good she was at 3000 this winter.
...but what does Cranny have to do with Lebron's legacy?
5000 and 10000 if she gets the qualifying time for the 10000. It’s probably too late to switch to the steeplechase but the US could use more representation in the steeplechase.