John Wesley Harding wrote:
1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:46.4
2. Josh Kerr 3:46.5
3. Cole Hocker 3:47.3
4. Yared Nuguse 3:47.7
5. Lamecha Girma 3:48.1
6. Hobbs Kessler 3:48.5
7. Reynold Cheruiyot 3:48.6
8. Geordie Beamish 3:48.7
9. Oliver Hoare 3:49.3
10. Jake Wightman 3:49.6If Jakob is at 90-percent of where he was last season, he’s not gonna be easy to beat in a paced mile. I trust Kerr to make a monster effort though, and I think he’ll be faster than he was at this point last year.
I like what I’ve seen from Hocker this year and predict he’ll kick through for the best of the rest and #3 all time U.S.
Nuguse might be missing a bit of last year’s magic—a slight “sophomore slump”—but he’ll put himself in a reasonably high position mid-race and rally in the last 100m for a solid result.
I expect Girma to correct his tactical error from Marrakesh and be closer to the front at 400, allowing him to race more to his fitness.
Kessler will drift a little between 800 and 1400 but rally late. Cheruiyot hasn’t been super impressive but he’s in decent form and he’s consistent. Beamish will do what he always does but clock the fastest 1500/mile time of his career, gapping Hoare and Wightman in the last 100m. Hoare and Wightman will run o.k., but show they may not be back to 100% top form.
Centro, Garcia Romo, Gourley, Kipsang and Myers (alphabetically) will comprise the bottom-5.
They'll come through paced to 800 in 1:53 and then run a 56 before coming home in 55. for the final 409m. Jakob will squeeze Kerr and the field on the 3rd and 4th laps
1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:44.9
2. Josh Kerr 3:45.2
3. Hobbs Kessler 3:45.6
4. Cole Hocker 3:45.65
5. Yared Nuguse 3:45.8
6. Reynolds Cheruiyot 3:46.2
7. Oliver Hoare 3:46.8
8. Geordie Beamish 3:47.1
9. Jake Wightman 3:47.4
10. Lamecha Girma 3:47.8
11. Matthew Centrowitz 3:49.2
12. Cameron Myers 3:49.3
Obviously predicting a big breakthrough race for Hobbs and Hocker. This is my hot take prediction, and not actually what I think is the most likely thing to happen. Wishing the best for Nuguse, and while I still view him as the favorite for fastest American in the race, I think that it has gotten much closer now that Hobbs and Hocker are coming out of indoors with medals and had good results in a off-events last week. I think that Nuguse is just earlier in his season right now, and didn't look as dominant over Eric Holt and Hoare as I would have expected. Yes, I remember that Nuguse held with Jakob in a 3:43 race just last fall, but I wanted my prediction to be spicier.