London elite field - Bekele, Tola, Kamworor, Assefa, Jepchirchir

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

rojo wrote:

Here is our article on the field.

Link:www.letsrun.com/news/2024/03/super-fas...

Below you will find the full fields. I've looked up to see what the top 10 men/women have done in 2023 in terms of marathons and what they've done so far in 2024 in terms of significant results.

Elite women
Tigst ASSEFA (ETH, 2:11:53 WR) - 2:11:53 WR in Berlin in her only race of year.
Brigid KOSGEI (KEN, 2:14:04) - DNF London, 4th NYC (2:27:45), 1st Abu Dhabi (2:19:15).
Ruth CHEPNGETICH (KEN, 2:14:18) - 1st Nagoya (2:18:08), 2nd Chicago (2:15:37)
Tigist KETEMA (ETH, 2:16:07) - Did very little on track/roads - 4:08 1500, 15:17 5000. Won Dubai in 2:16:07 in January in debut record.
Almaz AYANA (ETH, 2:16:22) - 7th London (2:20:44), 2nd Valencia (2:16:22)
Megertu ALEMU (ETH, 2:17:09) - 2nd London (2:18:37), 3rd Chicago (2:17:09). 69:23 at 2024 RAK Half.
Peres JEPCHIRCHIR (KEN, 2:17:16) - 3rd London (2:18:38), 1st World Half, withdrew from NYC. 67:19 at RAK Half this year.
Joyciline JEPKOSGEI (KEN, 2:17:23) - 12th Boston (2:24:44), 4th Chicago (2:17:23). 64:29 for 1st in Barcelona this yr.
Yalemzerf YEHUALAW (ETH, 2:17:23) - 5th London (2:18:53), 5th Worlds (2:26:13)
Sheila CHEPKIRUI (KEN, 2:17:29) - 4th London (2:18:51), 2nd Berlin (2:17:49). 66:47 in half this year.
Tsige HAILESLASE (ETH, 2:22:10)
Susanna SULLIVAN (USA, 2:24:27)
Manon TRAPP (FRA, 2:25:48)
Becky BRIGGS (GBR, 2:29:04)
Alice WRIGHT (GBR, 2:29:08)
Anya CULLING (GBR, 2:34:45)
Rachel HODGKINSON (GBR, 2:34:46)
Helen GAUNT (GBR, 2:35:38)
Mhairi MACLENNAN (GBR, Debut)
Lucy REID (GBR, Debut)

Elite men
Kenenisa BEKELE (ETH, 2:01:41) - DNF London. 4th Valencia (2:04:19).
Mosinet GEREMEW (ETH, 2:02:55) - 2:04:41 for 3rd in London. Pulled out of NYC before start.
Alexander Mutiso MUNYAO (KEN, 2:03:11) - Won Prague in 2:05:09 and 2nd in Valencia in 2:03:11. Ran 59:17 on Feb 4 this year.
Tamirat TOLA (ETH, 2:03:39) - 3rd London (2:04:59), DNF Worlds, 1st in NYC (2:04:58) as late a). Ran 59:47 on Feb. 24th at RAK Half
Dawit WOLDE (ETH, 2:03:48) - 4th Rotterdam (2:05:46), 17th Chicago (2:11:33), 3rd Valencia (2:03:48)
Kinde ATANAW (ETH, 2:03:51) - DNF London. 2:08:27 in Shanghai,
Leul GEBRESILASE (ETH, 2:04:02) - 4th London (2:05:45), 3rd Worlds (2:09:19). Only 61:24 at RAK Half.
Geoffrey KAMWOROR (KEN, 2:04:23) - 4th World XC, 2nd London (2:04:23). Pulled out of NYC
Seifu TURA (ETH, 2:04:29) - 6th London (2:06;38), 5th Chicaco (2:05:29). 60:39 at RAK Half this year.
Daniel DO NASCIMENTO (BRA, 2:04:51) - 4th Hamburg (2:07:06), 33rd Valencia (2:08:40)
Addisu GOBENA (ETH, 2:05:01)
Milkesa MENGESHA (ETH, 2:05:29)
Henok TESFAY (ERI, 2:07:12)
Emile CAIRESS (GBR, 2:08:07)
Callum HAWKINS (GBR, 2:08:14)
Hassan CHAHDI (FRA, 2:08:19)
Mahamed MAHAMED (GBR, 2:08:40)
Brian SHRADER (USA, 2:09:46)
Weynay GHEBRESILASIE (GBR, 2:09:50)
Andrew HEYES (GBR, 2:13:52)
Alexander LEPRETRE (GBR, 2:15:01)
Hiko Tonosa HASO (IRL, 2:15:01)
Norman SHREEVE (GBR, 2:16:17)
Alex MILNE (GBR, 2:16:30)
William MYCROFT (GBR, 2:17:02)
David BISHOP (GBR, 2:17:06)
Adam BOWDEN (GBR, 2:17:18)
Kieran WALKER (GBR, 2:17:30)
Alexander LAWRENCE (GBR, 2:17:41)
Daniel HAMILTON (GBR, 2:17:59)
Dominic JONES (GBR, 2:18:15)
Fraser STEWART (GBR, 2:18:34)
Tom FRITH (GBR, 2:18:35)
James HOAD (GBR, 2:18:38)
Ryan THOMSON (GBR, 2:18:46)
Martin HOARE (IRL, 2:18:57)
Charlie SANDISON (GBR, 2:19:22)
Paulos SURAFEL (GBR, No Time)
Daniel MATEIKO (KEN, No Time)
Jacob ALLEN (GBR, Debut)
Kieran CLEMENTS (GBR, Debut)
Marc SCOTT (GBR, Debut)
Sean TOBIN (IRL, Debut)

Early read on the form chart:

Women:
Favorite: Assefa
Top Contenders: Chepngetich, Ketema, Ayana, Kosgei, Jepkosgei
Dark Horses: Jepchirchir , Yehualaw, Chepkirui, Alemu

Men:
Co-Favorites: Mutiso, Mateiko , Tola
Top Contenders with ? Marks: Kamworor, Wolde, Gebresilase
Long Shots: Geremew, Bekele, Atanaw, Tura

toughtask wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Personally I don’t see how you can call Jepchirchir (reigning Olympic champ, 2023 World Half champ) or Yehualaw (2022 London champ, 29:14/63:51 PRs) “dark horses”. Both are very much contenders I think, even if that doesn’t fit a preferred quota for tiers.

Assefa does deserve the distinction as the sole favorite, for sure. If she’s the same runner we saw last September it’s virtually game over.

I think it's fair to put Jepchirchir and Yehualaw in the third group. Neither has really shown their 2022 form much in the past year and a half relative to most of those in the tier above, though I wouldn't put Ayana quite so high. Honestly my biggest contention is that Alemu is rated far too low. She's been maybe the most consistent of the top marathoners this cycle, podiuming in each of her 4 marathons from 2022-present and run 2:18 or better in each. She might not win, but I think she certainly has maybe the best chance to podium given her talent and consistency.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

HaileGfan wrote:

Calling it now - Bekele for the win, as he needs his Olympic spot [if not now, when?].

Mateiko to finish at least top 3 - lots of strong half marathons, and stuck with Kiptum much of the way in Chicago (this race will be at least a bit slower than Chicago)

Cairess to be the top Brit

Mateiko was right with Kiptum at 30k in Chicago @ 2:01:41 pace, and hit 35k still on 2:01:59 pace before dropping out. Give him 2:03:00 pace and there’s a fair chance he survives.

I would call Tola the favorite over Mutiso with Mateiko #3, from an odds perspective. Geremew is a bit of a question mark after being MIA all last year. Dawit Wolde has a fascinating WA profile, having run 3:41/1500 in 2007 and spending most of his career as a 3:33/3:34 guy before running some killer marathons in recent years, including 2:03:48 in Valencia in December.

As amazing as it would be, I can’t honestly imagine Bekele winning this. He’s turning 42 in June - I mean come on, 4th in Valencia in 2:04 was more phenomenal than we have any right to expect. If he places top 5 I would consider it a resounding success. Tough to guess what Kamworor will do but I see him as more likely to sneak onto the podium with another 2:04 than win in a big PR.