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I'm more optimistic about the average person. Observing that most people do not achieve sub-3 is not the best indicator.
It's more about what is the true genetic potential of the population. If given infinite resources, what would the distribution of marathon times be for a random selection of 1000 males aged 20-40 that were trained into oblivion and it became their only goal in life? Access to every possible professional intervention going for training, recovery, diet etc. That's not the same thing as wondering why overweight people who train 30 km a week only run 6 hour marathons.
Yes I accept a % may have some fundamental musculoskeletal issue but I reckon that's not actually that big. I went to a boys school. The whole year of 150 kids jogged around the playing field for a couple of km. Even the slowest kids jogged / shuffled their way around. People aren't intrinsically that bad at walking / running. There's a lot of training potential there.
I'm more optimistic about the average person. Observing that most people do not achieve sub-3 is not the best indicator.
The whole year of 150 kids jogged around the playing field for a couple of km. Even the slowest kids jogged / shuffled their way around. People aren't intrinsically that bad at walking / running.
Yes. You are right about "jogging/shuffling." But remember, running is not jogging. 6:52 pace is not 8:30 or 10 minute miles. You say kids at your school could jog. I agree with that. I agree that almost any healthy person (age 20-40) could probably walk-jog 26.2 miles. That is fine. We are evolved to do that.
But we are talking 6:52 pace. A mile or more at that pace is like a flat-out sprint for non-runners.
I am getting old and despite the fact that I run almost every day, 6:52 pace is hard for me. I could not go under 3 hours (anymore) because I would not be able to handle the needed training. I think a lot of people are in the same boat.
No, I have known many very fit runners who have trained and run many marathons, but 3 has been out of their reach. Known others that seem to break 3 with little training. It's not random, there is a lot going on to run a 3 hr marathon.
I have a theory that any able-bodied man in their youth without any health complications could break Sub 3, Just depends on Coaching, your drive, how much time you are willing to put into it and as well how long you give yourself to prep. I disagree with a lot of comments here for the simple fact that Gene Dykes broke 3 in his 70s. I mean if a guy in his declining stages in life can do it, I see no reason a young healthy man or woman can't either.
I love it when fat american hobby joggers on here try to convince themselves that their 20 min 5k is quick because "most people couldn't even achieve that if they wanted to bro".
YES, any able bodied man could train to run sub-3.
I love it when fat american hobby joggers on here try to convince themselves that their 20 min 5k is quick because "most people couldn't even achieve that if they wanted to bro".
YES, any able bodied man could train to run sub-3.
Correct! Any able bodied man could train to sub-3. Many of them would get injured during training and never run a marathon at any pace, and of those that don't get injured during training, most would not be fast enough to run sub-3. That was your point, right?
If I ever win > $100M on the lottery I will carry out the experiment and make a Netflix documentary about it. Train at least 100 randomly selected guys for a few years and answer this question once and for all.
Yes, 5% of actual marathon runners. That is already are very small subset of all people.
Yeah but you're overestimating the training these people go through. A family friend of mine ran a marathon and she only did like 25 miles a week and is in her 40s. You're really telling me she was training the same as someone who does 100 mile weeks and does Speed work. She never did Speedwork. So yeah, Letsrun has an obsession with making certain time barriers inconceivable to the average joe or jane. Not everyone trains similarly or as intense, stop putting people down.
Are you saying that the non-runners might be better than the actual runners when it comes time to attempt a sub-3? Because as it is, only 5% of actual runners achieve sub-3. How does adding in people with less motivation bring the average up from 5% to "everybody could do it" in your mind.
Even with their lives on the line (like in Squid Game), a lot of people would just get injured trying to do the training... These injured people would all fail. So no, human men can't "all run a sub-3."
Are you saying that the non-runners might be better than the actual runners when it comes time to attempt a sub-3? Because as it is, only 5% of actual runners achieve sub-3. How does adding in people with less motivation bring the average up from 5% to "everybody could do it" in your mind.
Even with their lives on the line (like in Squid Game), a lot of people would just get injured trying to do the training... These injured people would all fail. So no, human men can't "all run a sub-3."
Well the hypothetical is any able bodied man from 18-45. I'm not saying those who break 3 are less of a runner than those who aren't. If anything I'm admitting exactly that, the ones who break 3 train a lot harder than those who don't. If you lined up 1,000,000 men ages of 18-45 and gave them the exact routine, knowledge, Trained them to a certain weight and speed training. I guarantee you way more than 50,000 runners would break 3. I'd wager at least 100,000-150,000 would. There would obvious be exceptions such as day-to-day lives of these people, possible heart problems, etc, etc - things beyond their physicality that would prevent them to. Nick Bare weighs almost 200 lbs and broke 3.
I'd argue less than 1% could go under 2:37 (6:00 mile pace for a Marathon - Which is my goal, but I already have a 4:58 mile as my base so who knows).
Point is, Sub-3 is challenging but not an impossibility.
Are you saying that the non-runners might be better than the actual runners when it comes time to attempt a sub-3? Because as it is, only 5% of actual runners achieve sub-3. How does adding in people with less motivation bring the average up from 5% to "everybody could do it" in your mind.
Even with their lives on the line (like in Squid Game), a lot of people would just get injured trying to do the training... These injured people would all fail. So no, human men can't "all run a sub-3."
Well the hypothetical is any able bodied man from 18-45. I'm not saying those who break 3 are less of a runner than those who aren't. If anything I'm admitting exactly that, the ones who break 3 train a lot harder than those who don't. If you lined up 1,000,000 men ages of 18-45 and gave them the exact routine, knowledge, Trained them to a certain weight and speed training. I guarantee you way more than 50,000 runners would break 3. I'd wager at least 100,000-150,000 would. There would obvious be exceptions such as day-to-day lives of these people, possible heart problems, etc, etc - things beyond their physicality that would prevent them to. Nick Bare weighs almost 200 lbs and broke 3.
I'd argue less than 1% could go under 2:37 (6:00 mile pace for a Marathon - Which is my goal, but I already have a 4:58 mile as my base so who knows).
Point is, Sub-3 is challenging but not an impossibility.
"Not an impossibility" is not close to the same as any able-bodied male being able to do it.
Been following Casey for a while. He consistently runs daily. I would say his training has finally paid off. I am happy he was able to break 3, he was so close at NY.
I wouldn’t go as far to say the average 45YO can do it, the whole video he made showed just how hard he had to work at it. I am not saying it can’t be done, the video illustrates how hard it is. For some it is easy yes, but mainly speaking, it’s not easy & his video shows his persistence and will. Good just Casey.