I’d imagine most elite milers even at the collegiate/club level can run 49-50, I’d guess 47-49 for most guys attempting to get into a final.
I also think Jakob is actually one of the slower worlds best with probabaly about 48.5-49 speed. He clearly has better endurance than every miler except maybe (and a big maybe) nuguse, the only thing that holds him back in tactical races is the speed going into the final 150m.
I usually like your posts, but thinking Nuguse has better endurance than the world 5k champion who has been doing double threshold since he was 15 is crazy.
Not end of story. It’s not the speed that separates the guys these days. It’s their strength. The top guys these days might be the same speed, or maybe even slower, over 400. They are sacrificing some speed to work on their strength.
i am serious, and don't call me shirley. since we are dealing with speculation (i assume neither of us has had conversations with the current crop of elites mentioned), i am open to the possibility that i'm wrong; however, i'm curious as to your strange generalization that today's athletes are different because of "their strength." what gives you that idea? outside of jakob, the mileage of the others seems pretty much in line with mileage/volume of generations of world record milers going back to the 60s, and even before. some of them considerably less. maybe you think double thresholds are the secret to everything, but even with that, jakob still doesn't have an olympic distance event world record yet (barely cracking the top 20 overall in his "strength" event, the 5k).
but, yeah, i guess it's not the end of the story; still, i know which side of the argument i'd bet large sums of money...
that's still my story, and i'm still sticking to it,
cush
Your argument is assuming that Jakob hasn’t improved since he was 20 in a race where he was just running to win (and did).
My guess is based on an open 400 meter race, rather than a relay split or any sort of rolling start.
Kessler ran what, 50 flat? Webb was well under that, for sure. But would I take Nordas over a field of the top US high school milers in a 400 meter race? I'm not convinced that I would. Pro guys have much more developed endurance, so they get considerably faster in the 1500 even when their 400 meter speed is only marginally faster than the top high school middle distance guys
In my much slower version:
When I was in high school, I ran 52.2 from a standing start. I was a 4:24 miler.
By fourth year of university, I had improved my 400 by a whopping 0.4 seconds to 51.8 (standing start). My mile had improved to 4:02.
i agree with the claim of your handle. but if he felt he could have gotten the record, i assume he would have chased it. i found it a little curious that he chased the records that he did--and i'm not necessarily saying they're inferior records--instead of going for the more serious records.
on another note, i'll admit that "you cannot be serious" has given me food for thought. perhaps i could argue (not confidently, though) that the evolution of the 3k/5k events may not be the same as the evolution of the athletes. thinking of mo farah, it has occurred to me that not all sub-3:30 dudes are built the same, though i still have to believe they're all capable of sub 50 easily, and sub 49 mostly. too lazy to look up 800 times for the current crop, though i remember mo's time of 1:48-ish; my guess is that 1:48 was "NOT representative of mo's level"...
Nordas (idc if he says he can’t run a fast one, he closed a 3:29 in 52)
Nuguse
Hocker
Laros
I think on Coffee Club they said Nuguse ran a 49 in practice prior to running 1:46 this past spring. Am I crazy to think that the only guys breaking 49 are Laros and Wightman? Maybe Hocker. I have heard he has serious wheels. Maybe Tim C.
I train with a guy who has run 3,36 for the 1500m and 1,46 for the 800m. During summer he CONSISTENLY throws a 49" 400m or 1,02 500m to finish many workouts (from a rolling start, but you get the point), he has also splitted 48 low more than once in a 4x4. There is no chance any those guys isnt able to break 49" in an all out effort.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Misleading wording
I miss the days of legit 1:41.xx & 1:42.xx 800m men racing 1500m.
Those guys wouldnt be able to run 3 rounds at the pace it has been run the last 4 years. Good luck having a good kick when you cant make it to the final
John Walker, who couldn’t kick with the British guys, ran 48.9.
Walker could possibly have been able to run a little faster than that; he could run 22.7 for the 200, which I understand was faster than Cram - but would have been slower than both Coe and Ovett, who were definitely sub-22 guys. Coe was likely capable of 21.5 or better. None of today's 1500 guys gets near that.
I don't think any currently would be capable of 46. They would need to have the same sprint speed as Coe, who was a sub-22 runner over 200. They don't. 48-flat out of the blocks for the fastest.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
I don't think any currently would be capable of 46. They would need to have the same sprint speed as Coe, who was a sub-22 runner over 200. They don't. 48-flat out of the blocks for the fastest.
I don't think any currently would be capable of 46. They would need to have the same sprint speed as Coe, who was a sub-22 runner over 200. They don't. 48-flat out of the blocks for the fastest.
Absolutely wrong.
But no argument that demonstrates it. Your calling card.
Seb Coe ran a 46. FAT 400m. He had the WR at 800m and 1500m, and was still significantly faster at 800m than the current elite milers. None of them can likely break 47.
Nick Symmonds couldn’t even break 47 and he broke 1:43.
All the top 1500m/miles can run 48-49. A couple might run in the 47s. Some might only run 50.
I miss the days of legit 1:41.xx & 1:42.xx 800m men racing 1500m.
Those guys wouldnt be able to run 3 rounds at the pace it has been run the last 4 years. Good luck having a good kick when you cant make it to the final
Seb Coe ran a 46. FAT 400m. He had the WR at 800m and 1500m, and was still significantly faster at 800m than the current elite milers. None of them can likely break 47.
Nick Symmonds couldn’t even break 47 and he broke 1:43.
All the top 1500m/miles can run 48-49. A couple might run in the 47s. Some might only run 50.
None can run 46 and none can run 45, no chance.
Nick Symmonds was a strength 800 guy.
But he was still an 800 guy. That was his event. You think strength based 1500m runners are running a faster 400?
I was a senior at UCI when Steve Scott entered as a freshman. It did not take too many workouts to realize he was a unique blend of speed and untapped strength as a runner. Several times our coach, Len Miller, would have workouts where leg speed was tested and Steve left the rest of us in his wake. If memory serves me right, he once without starting blocks ran a 100yd dash in a little over 10 flat. As documented by several other sources, his 400 meter time was a tick under 48 flat.
One of the most overlooked aspects of the Norwegian training system is Mondays. On Mondays, they do speed development. Flying 50m or 60m sprints with long recovery. Drills. Plyos. I don’t know a lot of other programs that are doing that on a weekly basis like that. Wightman does. Laros probably. The Norwegians are also ripping 20 x 200m hills every week. Again, not something that elites are doing on a weekly basis throughout the year. Everybody focuses on the double threshold but I feel like this type of speed training does way more than people realize.
You're overestimating the monday sprint part, and the 200m hills are not "ripping". Its relatively steep and not something that actually makes you faster, but it do make you "stronger".
But no argument that demonstrates it. Your calling card.
I don't have to demonstrate anything. It is you who should educate yourself. But you never do. Your calling card.
So, as you admit, you have no argument. Shooting yourself in the foot once again. I would suggest a higher target but that would be uncharitable - and probably make little difference.
I’d imagine most elite milers even at the collegiate/club level can run 49-50, I’d guess 47-49 for most guys attempting to get into a final.
I also think Jakob is actually one of the slower worlds best with probabaly about 48.5-49 speed. He clearly has better endurance than every miler except maybe (and a big maybe) nuguse, the only thing that holds him back in tactical races is the speed going into the final 150m.
In an actual race I think all of the top men would be under 49 and most would be under 48.
I could see some of them under 47 and a couple going 45.xx.
....
I don't think there is a single 1500m runner today who could go sub 46 in in open 400m. Hell there has only been a merger handful of 1500m men who could run 46 anything in the 400m in the entire history of athletics
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