I don’t understand. What’s a woman? I’m a liberal, not a biologist.
I don’t understand. What’s a woman? I’m a liberal, not a biologist.
I think Tuohy will do it with a few more years of good training.
I think it would have happened already if open races were record eligible. I think all women's records would be much faster if they could race with men.
xzcvzcvx wrote:
Yes. First, the 4:12 mile record is greatly inferior to the 3:50 1500m record, so you can already see that someone has run about 4:08.4 (1.08x conversion) and so it would require an 8.5 second drop to do it. That is doable. The women's 800m record is 1:53.28, and the future sub-4 woman would likely be more of a 1:54 athlete, so it would be very challenging, but we see Jakob run 3:46 (1:53 880y) off of a 1:46-47 800 pr, so a 6-7 second slowdown from 800 to 880(in a mile) is possible.
Second, the physiological advantages that men have can be gained to some degree by women in various ways, both natural and unnatural, without any new inventions or training techniques. You might have a woman on the high side of the T-limits required to do this, and of course doping was very likely not only in the women's 800m record but also the 1500m record.
Third, sub-3:50 could happen this year with Faith Kipyegon with her perfect form.
You’re ignoring that no woman has run 3:50 clean. This is about clean athletes
There was a thread on this here in 2003, when my daughter was born.
I was thinking the 1500m record was 3:50 (run in 1993) the equivalent of a 4:08 mile.
The men’s mile record was 407.6 in 1933 with the first sub 4:00 happening in 1954 - 21 years later.
Maybe my daughter could run sub 4:00 mile in her 20’s.
Result 20 years later:
My daughter tried track and didn’t stick with it.
The women's 1500 record has dropped a whole 0.4 seconds and still isn’t under 3:50, let alone 3:42.
And that 0.4 second drop actually spans 30 years.
Katelyn tuohy is the obvious answer. She is by far the most talented runner we’ve seen in a decade.
Manohman wrote:
Katelyn tuohy is the obvious answer. She is by far the most talented runner we’ve seen in a decade.
Can’t tell if you’re serious or not. If she was on her way to 4:00, she would already be under 3:50 in the 1500m.
Katelyn Tuohy is 21 and her top mile time is 4:24.
Sifan Hassan, the current womens mile record holder, ran 4:12 at age 26
I can see Tuohy shaving off 12 seconds in the next 5 years. but that last 12 seconds will be rough. she would have to train with men who run mid 4:00's to get her used to the pace. be fun to watch and good for the sport if she could at lest beat Hassan's time.
No, not without some help 💉💉💉
Swaglord369 wrote:
Jakobina Ingebridgsten
Jan Wightman
Elle Purrier coming off a 4:16 PR & childbirth.. think she America's shot at a 4:0x
As for sub 4, it sounds impossible.
However, a woman breaking 63 in the half marathon also sounded impossible... until Gidey did it
We just need to find the letesenbet gidey of middle distance, or maybe athing will move up once she gets the 800 WR
notsure wrote:
With super shoes technology anything is possible. We already have springs, why not wheels?
If you're talking about carbon plates, you don't understand super shoes.
MattHatter wrote:
Katelyn Tuohy is 21 and her top mile time is 4:24.
Sifan Hassan, the current womens mile record holder, ran 4:12 at age 26
I can see Tuohy shaving off 12 seconds in the next 5 years. but that last 12 seconds will be rough. she would have to train with men who run mid 4:00's to get her used to the pace. be fun to watch and good for the sport if she could at lest beat Hassan's time.
Running a fast pace is talent and fitness. If she tried to run with a 4:05 guy, she’ll get dropped every single time, followed by a huge positive split,
One mile world record went sub-4 when 800m w.r. was 1:46.6. Do women need to race 800m that fast? No. Are there guys on here who have never raced sub-1:49 800m who have raced sub-4 one mile, maybe.
As others pointed out, the record really should be 4:07/4:08 based on the 1500 equivalent. Now Dibaba was almost certainly doping, but it's at least plausible that Kipyegon is clean. I think that sub-4:05 could maybe be possible for an athlete of that caliber in a perfect setup with male pacers going the whole way, but it's hard to see where the last five seconds would come from. You'd need a mega-outlier in terms of talent identified at a very young age, plus a technological advance far beyond the current shoes.
As for sub 4, it sounds impossible.
However, a woman breaking 63 in the half marathon also sounded impossible... until Gidey did it
We just need to find the letesenbet gidey of middle distance, or maybe athing will move up once she gets the 800 WR
Gidey is very suspicious. I don't believe that her times are clean. Most at the very top are doping, sad but true.
In 2011, Mary Keitany ran a world record half marathon of 1:05:50 (Radcliffe’s GNR had been a few seconds faster). Keitany was one of the very best and most talented runners in the world at the time, and although women’s records we’re starting to involve male pacers, I don’t think there was any indication that the record was particularly weak.
10 years later, in 2021, Letesenbet Gidey ran 1:02:53, 4.69% faster than Keitany’s record.
4.69% faster than Faith Kipyegon’s near-world-record 1500m is 3:40.05, roughly converting to 3:57-high for the mile.
Do I think the 1500m is about to undergo the same precipitous drop as the half marathon just did? Of course not. But I wasn’t expecting that drop either, and especially if we zoom out to 50 years instead of 10, I think it’s very difficult to make predictions of where the event will end up.
The best women in the world run 1:55. No woman is coming close to 3:59.
MattHatter wrote:
right now the record is 4:12 set in 2019. the fact that it hasn't budged in 4 years is not very encouraging.
though with training starting at younger ages and better equipment, maybe someone emerges in the next decade or two and at the very least busts 4:10.
that alone would be newsworthy.
What's a woman?
Yes. Look at other running records. Men didn't run 2:14 marathon till 1963, but first sub 4 mile was 9 years earlier. Women have already run 2:14 3 times, so sub 4 is definitely within reach at some point.