It adds pressure to his next marathon. If he doesn't do well in that, it will be fairly significant. People around him will start to encourage him to retire - and he may feel the urge to do so himself.
He also risks not being selected for Paris, as we all know the Kenyan team vest for the marathon is probably the hardest to get. He'll need to prove he's still got it beforehand.
The best distance runner has to do more than just fast road marathons. They need to excel on the roads, trails up to 100m, and trails over 100m. Best road marathoners is not the same as best distance runner.
The best distance runner would not just run fast time trials, they be near the top at Western States and Marathon des Sables.
It adds pressure to his next marathon. If he doesn't do well in that, it will be fairly significant. People around him will start to encourage him to retire - and he may feel the urge to do so himself.
He also risks not being selected for Paris, as we all know the Kenyan team vest for the marathon is probably the hardest to get. He'll need to prove he's still got it beforehand.
this, but mainly I think the only thing that will truly change will be the mindset of his competitors, now maybe believing a bit more that he's not unbeatable and that they dont have to follow his lead every Marathon
We saw Adola test him at 2017 Berlin, we saw him in a group of 3x still at Mile 24 in London 2019, we saw him 8th at London 2020 and now 6th at Boston 2023.
Sure between these he's had highs, but all they need to know is he isn't unbeatable..
I think this experience will set him up nicely for Paris 2024. He had difficulty on the hills, and he knows it now. Better to lose now than on the hilly course of Paris. He blew up in London 2020 and used that experience to become absolutely dominant in 2021.
It's good to see he's stepping outside his comfort zone rather than the usual London/Tokyo. Hopefully he runs NYC later this year and Boston again next year. Keen to see the three-peat.
If E Kipchoge were 20-something, maybe. He is done.
This lose reminds me of:
George Foreman losing to Mohammed Ali;
Steve Cram losing to S Coe, 1984 Olympics, 1500m final (S Cram never won another Olympic or W.C. medal after that loss, S Cram was favored);
Roberto Duran losing to Ray Leonard;
Tommy "Hitman" Hearns losing to Marvin Hagler;
Mike Spinks losing to Mike Tyson;
Mike Tyson losing to "Buster" Douglas;
Steve Ovett losing to S Coe AND Jurgen Straub.
Forty year old men do not have come backs. When 40 year old men lose their crown, they are done.
I'm not so sure. At his age, he will likely have a higher percentage of bad races as he gets older. One last year, one this year .... maybe two bad races next year? He's not Tom Brady and unlike football players, runners can't do well if they are not 100 percent.
To me, I think it’s becoming pretty clear that kipchoge is a time trialer at this point in his career. When conditions are good and the course is flat, he wins and does so dominantly. When conditions are bad and the course is challenging, he either barely wins or loses.
I agree in part but he’s also won Gold in the last two Olympic marathons which are anything but time trials. The Tokyo Olympics had some of the hottest temperatures on record for the marathon - not ideal conditions and he dominated.
That’s a fair point, I moreso meant weather conditions like wind and rain that couldn’t be predicted ahead of time. You look at London and Boston, and both of them had rainy windy cold weather, which seems to effect him a lot. Other finishers seemed to place about where you’d predict them to finish, but he seems to fade a bit in those conditions.
To me, I think it’s becoming pretty clear that kipchoge is a time trialer at this point in his career. When conditions are good and the course is flat, he wins and does so dominantly. When conditions are bad and the course is challenging, he either barely wins or loses.
This shouldn't be getting downvotes. It's the right answer.
It means he lost. Everyone loses sometimes. Even Edwin Moses' 10-year streak of never losing was eventually broken. It's silly to expect Kipchoge to run at the highest level without error for 2 decades +. He's getting old but he definitely still has more in him. He's said that in the interviews. It's just a loss. Although it does make his goal of getting all 6 Majors and retaining his Olympic title a bit more difficult, as he'll have to do NY/Paris/Boston still for sure and i'd still love to see him go for another WR, maybe time trial Berlin again. But does he have the ability to win 3-4 marathons(technical ones and he'll be pretty much 40 when some of them come around again) left? That's the spot where it throws a wrench. But he's still an incredible man and marathoner and I'm excited to see where he goes next, i definitely don't think he's just 'done' like some people (trolls??) are saying.
To me, I think it’s becoming pretty clear that kipchoge is a time trialer at this point in his career. When conditions are good and the course is flat, he wins and does so dominantly. When conditions are bad and the course is challenging, he either barely wins or loses.
This shouldn't be getting downvotes. It's the right answer.
It’s a hot take for sure haha. I’d expect it to get the backlash it’s getting. I stand by it tho, no ill will to Kipchoge, he’s undoubtedly the best marathoner of all time in my book, but I’m seeing a trend form. You can’t be a 30 year old in your distance prime forever.
The best distance runner has to do more than just fast road marathons. They need to excel on the roads, trails up to 100m, and trails over 100m. Best road marathoners is not the same as best distance runner.
The best distance runner would not just run fast time trials, they be near the top at Western States and Marathon des Sables.
Running an ultra marathon is a great feat, but it’s still the least deep out of all of the distance disciplines by a long shot. The guys winning all of the major ultras have 2:15-2:20 marathon PBs. That’s “You’re only pro if you’re good at social media” caliber.
Im willing to wager that if kipchoge decided to train for the discipline, he’d win any 100 mile ultra in the world by over an hour.
Hey here's a theory (not saying it's true but brainstorming) perhaps he raced this event clean because he was bored of winning dirty and wanted to see how he could do. Or do they have adequate drug testing at Boston and he got spooked? He's probably protected like Bolt and HGH/EPO LeBron anyways.
You can't predict a trend from one data point. I agree that it could be good motivation for him to get "revenge" in Paris. But we don't know much really about what his life/training is like, so it could also mean he is losing some of his unique status as unbeatable. From one race, we just don't know.
Running an ultra marathon is a great feat, but it’s still the least deep out of all of the distance disciplines by a long shot. The guys winning all of the major ultras have 2:15-2:20 marathon PBs. That’s “You’re only pro if you’re good at social media” caliber.
Im willing to wager that if kipchoge decided to train for the discipline, he’d win any 100 mile ultra in the world by over an hour.
I don't agree because I think the skill set that you need for ultras is also durability in the feet, quads, and ankles. How you handle eating and running without sleep are also vital.
I do agree with you that he would dominate any 50km or 100km on the roads for sure. But when you say "ultra running" most people think of gnarly, 50M or 100M trail runs with river crossings and crap like that.
Being super lean might not help with those other scenarios as much as we assume.
The takeaway is that he can't just do whatever he likes and expect to win.
He ran a foolish race and Boston bit back hard. He needs to learn to sit in occasionally and not just push the pace. He's still probably the best but not by such a margin that he can lead the entire way in bad conditions...