Probably not but if you train properly and continue to improve I wouldn't say it's impossible, just highly unlikely. If by 25-27 your aren't running 400 meters from at least 49-51, 800 meters around 1:50 or less and 5000 meters in the low 14:00s, then you won't do so, super shoes or not.
Guess what? These guys who tell you that you can't do it, well, we know they're right if you don't try. Just set small goals and work on it. In the end, sub 4 or not, the journey will be where your memories are made.
I ran 57, 2:02, 4:37, and 9:57 in high school and broke 4 and 14 in college. People would have said no chance about me either.
I would like to read more about that coach. When did you begin running competitively, what training did you do, etc.? What do you think was important for your fine progression?
Better to work on 400 speed on 40 mpw than to accept 54 as your max and start marathon training is all I’m saying—even if the “ideal” and the way someone actually breaks 4 is typically somewhere in between.
Yeah, the last bit (do something in between) is the important part. The debate about whether he should train to run a 49-second 400 or a 2:09 marathon is kind of bizarre. He should do neither. He should train to run a mile, if that's what he's interested in. Doing so will involve improving both his speed and his endurance, in the style of Peter Coe's "five-speed" approach (i.e. train at paces between two events down and two events up from your main distance).
FWIW, I ran 3:42 (i.e. not quite sub-4) on 40 miles a week with 50.x relay speed. My speed wasn't great relative to my peers, and neither was my endurance, but I was a good miler.
(And yes, I did later try a year of speed-focused training, and only ran 3:45. And I also tried several years of 75 miles a week, which got me to sub-14 but only 3:43. The link between training and performance is complicated, but ultimately your mile performance is dictated by your mile fitness, not your speed or marathon endurance except at the extremes.)
Oh, and as for the OP's question... nobody knows. Your sophomore HS times are decent, and not inconsistent with a level of talent that might eventually lead to a sub-4. But the only way to know is to try it. The talent to respond to several years of hard training and keep improving is a talent you only discover by doing it.
I ran 57, 2:02, 4:37, and 9:57 in high school and broke 4 and 14 in college. People would have said no chance about me either.
I would like to read more about that coach. When did you begin running competitively, what training did you do, etc.? What do you think was important for your fine progression?
Began running at the age of 16. My first. cross country 5k was around 19, by the end of the season I had run about 16:45. I only improved to 16:20 in the next two years. Coaching in high school was not good. Mileage was only around 3-350 per week in cross country and much less in track, with brutally hard workouts every M, W, F. No aerobic development really of any kind.
Was able to walk onto a college team with a goal of running in the 15's for 5k. Mileage increased first year to around 50 per week, 65-70 the next year, 75-80- the year after, and eventually 90-100. Looking back, I ran more than I needed to in my opinion but I enjoyed it and would consider myself one with a marathoner's mentality vs a miler's.
Lot's of threshold work and 8-10 mile tempo runs in the fall, and more threshold work with some occasional 400-600m reps in the winter, and then threshold work and 10k specific work in the spring. One big thing was obviously the mileage increase which included long runs that were progressive in nature. But what really helped, I think, was speed development. Nothing crazy, but fast strides 2-3x per week, one of those being hill sprints of about 80-100m. Sometimes it would be 3x200m after a run in 32,30,28. Without basically ever touching mile pace outside of those short things and a few reps here or there at the end of workouts, I ran a 600m time trial in 1:24 at the end of a workout (i believe going through 400m in about 54). I don't believe I could have run under 52 seconds for a 400 but for me, it was fast enough to get under 4:00.
Also, I was clearly very talented and lucky to fall into a good situation with good teammates and a coach that believed in me.
TL/DR: Lots of talent and good consistent work over 4 years.
How many on here are at or have been at 140 miles per week? I want to become as strong as possible for the 10k in the spring. Just want some feedback from people who have been there and done that. Did it feel like it made...