Muir often starts the season slowly, it wouldn't surprise me if she lost this race. Last year she didn't even get close to 4-flat until World's. She's managed to peak really well for the last two years. She's obviously favorite but I don't think she'll run away from the field like she did at 5th Avenue and the World Champs.
Wasn’t she injured early last year? I think last year’s slow start was more the exception than the rule. She has indoor PBs of 1:58.44, 2:31.93, 3:59.58, 4:18.75, 8:26.41, 14:49.12 (4 of which are national records). The last indoor race she ran she clocked 3:59.58, in February 2021. I don’t think she’ll show up at Millrose content to run 4:22 for 4th or something.
Yes, but even after injury, it took a long time for her to get up to speed. She didn't run sub-4 until the World final and only ran a sub-2 in a mixed gender race. She's started slowly every year since 2018 and tbh, it's benefited her as she is now in the middle of the most successful period of her career. All things equal, I think she turns up and runs around 4:20 but I can also see her going out at 4:15 pace and dying on the final lap as she did at Pre last year. It doesn't really matter as I think she'll be in shape when the real medals are on the line in Budapest
Muir obvious favourite. Her slow start last year was an anomaly. Usually she is very solid indoors.
Reekie is an enigma. She has had one stunning indoor mile in 2020 where she set the British record, but she hasn't broken 4:03 since 2020 despite 4/5 1500m's she has done since summer 2020 being won sub 4:04 or faster. Her results have been 4:05, 4:04, 4:07, 4:05 in those races. The inconsistency was present even before she got mono in 2022. In that stretch she lost to Josette Norris, Lucia Stafford, and obviously Muir. She beat Sinclaire Johnson at Sound Running 2021 (when Johnson had that shocking 4:12) but was still well down the field that day. She has not faced the rest of field since her breakout in 2020.
For that reason, while Reekie has the potential to come 2nd, it really is a bit of a roll of the dice I think. Interesting that this is just the 6th time in 6 years as training partners Muir and Reekie have races head to head over 1500 (Muir is 5-0 with an average winning margin of 3.5s).
Will we get 2021 Josette or 2022 Josette? Will we get mid summer Sinclaire Johnson in 3:58-4:02 shape) or indoor/late summer 2:02/4:10 shape? How good is Eisa over 1500 (which group in ETH does she train with - basically nothing about her online)? Hiltz ranged from 4:04 with a wicked kick to not breaking 4:10 last year. Schlachtenhaufen looked a possible future sub 4 candidate in 2021 with a handful of sub 4:03 clockings7 but looked burnt out all last year.
Basically a lot of the women in this field are very high talent athletes but have had some massively varied performances over the last 2 years. 2nd through 10th could be a total crapshoot.
Yes, but even after injury, it took a long time for her to get up to speed. She didn't run sub-4 until the World final and only ran a sub-2 in a mixed gender race. She's started slowly every year since 2018 and tbh, it's benefited her as she is now in the middle of the most successful period of her career. All things equal, I think she turns up and runs around 4:20 but I can also see her going out at 4:15 pace and dying on the final lap as she did at Pre last year. It doesn't really matter as I think she'll be in shape when the real medals are on the line in Budapest
Tell me you dont follow the 1500 without telling me you dont follow it. Muir a slow starter? She's traditionally an indoor season beast.
2021 Muir ran basically a solo (as gudaf and the rabbit went out in a 59 and she didn't try to go with) 3:59 indoors in February for #5 all time. She runs a solo 4:01 in wind and rain with no pacer in her outdoor opener in April. Runs two 1:58s back to back in May before ripping 3:55 in Florence in June in her first rabbited 1500m of the year.
2020 was covid but had a top 20 all time 800 to open her year and a solo 1000m WR attempt before the covid shut down.
2019 - indoors 14:52 solo 5000, 1:59, and then British Record top 10 all time 4:18 mile followed up by her doubling at Euro indoor champs where she won the heats of the 1500 and came back an hour later to beat Konstanze Klosterhalfen in the 3000 in 8:30. Her 2nd race of the outdoor season she runs 3:56.
2018 indoors - another sub 2 800, closes the last 400 of UK champs in 56s (!). Double medalist at world indoors beaten only by Dibaba in the 1500 and Hassan+Dibaba in the 3000. Sub 4 in outdoor season opener.
2017 - 14:49 solo 5000 followed by an 8:26 3k, then double gold at Europeans indoors in the 15 and 3k. 4:00.4 season opening 1500.
2016 she's still racing scottish university indoor champs... her outdoor season opener is a 2:00 800, followed 2 weeks later by a 4:19 mile in Stockholm where she couldn't quite run down some nobody called Faith Kipyegon in the last 100.
Muir is the epitome of "hit the ground running" for pretty much her while career.