idk Nick Willis has trained for the mile specifically for the past 20 years and this year it took him a few tries to just barely dip under. And that was with him running 3:35 just 5 months prior. Kipchoge's endurance is undoubtedly otherworldly, but when was the last time he even touched something close to 4:00 pace? He's been in full on marathon training for a decade now, and I'd be surprised if he's done anything more than strides at 4:00 pace in that time.
How many people have run sub-4 past the age of 35 after completing a marathon? Any? Kipchoge is certainly a different beast, but if Nick Willis (rightful 2008 Olympic Champ peace be upon him) is struggling to do it a few months after a 3:35, it makes me a bit skeptical that Kipchoge could just drop down and after 10 weeks of training knock it out.
This is the correct answer. No way Kipchoge can still run a mile in under 4 minutes. I’d say 4:02 plus a pulled hammy.
idk Nick Willis has trained for the mile specifically for the past 20 years and this year it took him a few tries to just barely dip under. And that was with him running 3:35 just 5 months prior. Kipchoge's endurance is undoubtedly otherworldly, but when was the last time he even touched something close to 4:00 pace? He's been in full on marathon training for a decade now, and I'd be surprised if he's done anything more than strides at 4:00 pace in that time.
How many people have run sub-4 past the age of 35 after completing a marathon? Any? Kipchoge is certainly a different beast, but if Nick Willis (rightful 2008 Olympic Champ peace be upon him) is struggling to do it a few months after a 3:35, it makes me a bit skeptical that Kipchoge could just drop down and after 10 weeks of training knock it out.
This is the correct answer. No way Kipchoge can still run a mile in under 4 minutes. I’d say 4:02 plus a pulled hammy.
yeah but could nick willis string together random 4:11 pace surges en route to a mother fing 2:01 marathon time?
nick willis isnt even on the same planet as kipchoge. i dont care if he struggled to break 4 recently.
its like comparing cole hocker or centro to daniel komen/el G
Let's take 2:01:09. That's 4:37.4 per mile. Let's say the question is if he could run 3:59.0 for a single mile. That would require his MarathonPace to be 16.1% slower than MilePace (In the sense that 4:37/3:59 = 1.16). What would this look like for some other times?
3:59 ---> 4:37 (~2:01)
4:10 ---> 4:50 (~2:06:30)
4:20 ---> 5:02 (~2:11:30)
4:30 ---> 5:13.5 (~2:17)
4:40 ---> 5:25 (~2:22)
4:50 ---> 5:37 (~2:27)
5:00 ---> 5:48 (~2:32)
So, asking if Eliud can run 3:59 right away in his marathon buildup / peak is (at least on raw mathematical analogy) equates to asking runners in the parenthetical marathon shape if they can run the corresponding mile time.
To believe that Eliud could *not* run 3:59.0 suggests the existence of 2:32 runners who can't break 5, 2:22 runners who top out at 4:4x in their marathon buildup, 2:17 runners who can't get under 4:30, 2:11:30 above 4:20, and so on.
I have no idea what Chepngetich, Kosgei, etc are capable of in the mile. Ruth opened in 15:11 (4:53.8/mile), so I'm not convinced she couldn't crack 4:30... Connor Mantz just ran 2:08, could he run 4:15 or so? That's 13:10 5k pace, so seems like even in his marathon buildup he wouldn't be out of shot of it.
Could you run 2:07 and fail to be able to break 4:10 on that day? Perhaps.
Now of course Eliud's endurance is likely to be prodigious compared to any mortal, so it's possible these comparisons break down at top end. Still, perhaps people with experience in the 2:10-2:25 range can report some anecdotal data: e.g. Did anyone ever run 2:17 on a day they couldn't crack 4:30?
This is the correct answer. No way Kipchoge can still run a mile in under 4 minutes. I’d say 4:02 plus a pulled hammy.
yeah but could nick willis string together random 4:11 pace surges en route to a mother fing 2:01 marathon time?
nick willis isnt even on the same planet as kipchoge. i dont care if he struggled to break 4 recently.
its like comparing cole hocker or centro to daniel komen/el G
two completely different species of runner.
Are we talking about what Nick Willis could do in a marathon? No. We’re talking about what Kipchoge could do in a mile. Do you think Kipchoge is a better miler than Willis? I’ll answer for you. He’s not!
Kipchoge’s 1500 PR is 3:33. Willis’s PR is 3:29. That’s 4 seconds faster! If Willis struggled to break 4 in his old age while continuing to focus on that distance, there’s no way old marathon man Kipchoge could do it. 4:02 with a pulled hammy.
When the heck was the last time he ran anything but a marathon.? I have a feeling the big difference is that he just isn't slowing down much between the HM and marathon. Something like a 59min hm guy which would just be nuts.
How stupid can you be? Nick Willis just clearly isn’t in the same form as he used to be whereas kipchoge just dropped a world record and is in top form. Of course a guy who can run a marathon at 4:37/mile can run sub 4. Blithering idiots who think otherwise. Of course he hasn’t touched that pace kuch but doesn’t matter. It’s not like where talking about sub 3:50 here. He runs ~3:54 and no pulled hammy.
I’m a hobby jogger, so l am legitimately asking a question. If he is in 2:09:01 (4:37 per mile pace) marathon shape, and his coach assigns mile repeats, wouldn’t he go to some kind running calculator or probably knows that he should be able to mile repeats at 4:00 per mile? We’re talking about a single 4:00 minute mile, so I, just a hobby jogger thinking, believe Kipchoge can run a 4 minute mile. I think that he should be able to run 5K pace and not even break into his hurting smile mode.
He’s not going to a running calculator. Him and his coach know what he can do for long repeats and will base it off where he is relative to his training history. And I don’t believe he does many mile/1600 repeats I often see things like 16x1000 and fast long runs from his camp.
How stupid can you be? Nick Willis just clearly isn’t in the same form as he used to be whereas kipchoge just dropped a world record and is in top form. Of course a guy who can run a marathon at 4:37/mile can run sub 4. Blithering idiots who think otherwise. Of course he hasn’t touched that pace kuch but doesn’t matter. It’s not like where talking about sub 3:50 here. He runs ~3:54 and no pulled hammy.
I think Kipchoge if given a few months warning could probably qualify for the us mens olympic team in the following distance events
Obviously he can. Most 13:40-13:55 5k guys can break 4 or get very close. Considering a mile is on a track, lets use his 1:59:40 pace (4:34/mile). He is running sub 14:20 5k over 8x in a row. Many 28:40 guys can run in that mile/5k range mentioned above, again kipchoge is maintaining that 10k pace over 4x in a row.. and on the road. Sub 4 is very impressive, but dozens of college kids are doing it every year and even high schoolers, its foolish to think kipchoge couldnt do it. He doesnt even need more that a week of specific training.
Obviously he can. Most 13:40-13:55 5k guys can break 4 or get very close. Considering a mile is on a track, lets use his 1:59:40 pace (4:34/mile). He is running sub 14:20 5k over 8x in a row. Many 28:40 guys can run in that mile/5k range mentioned above, again kipchoge is maintaining that 10k pace over 4x in a row.. and on the road. Sub 4 is very impressive, but dozens of college kids are doing it every year and even high schoolers, its foolish to think kipchoge couldnt do it. He doesnt even need more that a week of specific training.
I’m sure there’s a scientific way to properly assess this question, but the simple mental image of Kipchoge losing to Gary Martin right now in a mile race is mind boggling to me. No, can’t happen. Kipchoge can break 4. Do we also have the man who just broke the marathon wr losing to the Lex or Leo in the 5000?
I have to believe his 3:50/7:27 days are well behind him and he couldn’t regain that speed if he tried, but he has the best aerobic development and marathon-pace efficiency of any potential sub-4 guy in the world.
This is a good point. In Berlin, he ran 28:23-28:22 for the first two 10k's. Middle 10k was 28:19. Could he not have run 27:20 at a minimum on the road that day? At a minimum, on the track he has to be in the 27:00-27:30 range. I suppose this is scarcely believable since his 10000m pb is just 26:49, but of course he's a different athlete now than then. How many 27:30 runners would fail to run under 4:00 on the same day?
I have to believe his 3:50/7:27 days are well behind him and he couldn’t regain that speed if he tried, but he has the best aerobic development and marathon-pace efficiency of any potential sub-4 guy in the world.
As always with you, very reasonable and well informed. Is there a method/formula to your estimated change in pace 3k to 10k and does it differ for him than what you would assign to Fisher or even Jakob? I’m not talking the absolute pace and time, but the drop off as the distance increases. With his epic motor, I feel like if he can sustain a pace for 3k he might be able to hold very close to it for 5k. Maybe 2:35x per k and still under 13 min.
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