I have no idea how that runner/MIS prof is creating his equivalence tables, so I can't comment on whether any part of the method is sound.
But if you look at the percentages in those tables, they're just a percent of speed, not percentiles or any indication of the distribution of runners at ages/times (and it seems that he uses "dist" in the URL as shortened "distance" as opposed to "distribution"). So, to look at another example from his tables, calling those percentiles would suggest that 10% of 68-year-old men are actually able to run a marathon in 3:05:50 or faster. That's another hard NO.
OP asked about top 1%. This is ONE method of determining percentile. Just threw it out there as part of the discussion.
No its not, stop saying this. Percentile is the % of distributions that fall below a given range. 90th percentile meaning 90% of times etc. will be below (slower) that number, with 50% being the median.
You are showing what % of the record a certain time is, its a completely different concept and not what the OP is talking about.
The following tables show the Percentiles For Age (PFA) for Female and Male 5K finishers between the ages of 10 and 89. Based on the individual finish times and participation rates in 1283 5K races…
"The following tables show the Percentiles For Age (PFA) for Female and Male 5K finishers between the ages of 10 and 89. Based on the individual finish times and participation rates in 1283 5K races conducted across the United States, the records of more than one million finishers were used to construct these tables. Details of the methodology can be found in the book Racing Among the Ages."
Based on this data, a 40 yr old who runs sub-20 would be >95th percentile
1% of what? Anyone who entered a race last year? A large portion of those are non runners who get dragged to a turkey trot or charity event and walk or shuffle through a 5k. Sub 20min is probably close to top 1%. Change that to everyone who averages at least 30 miles a week and does some type of structured training and it’s probably around 17 min. obviously in certain races being in the top 1% of the field would take much faster times.
This hits the nail on the head. Top 1% of all 40yo Americans (runners + non-runners)? Or top 1% of all 40yo American runners? What defines a "runner"? (Oh god here we go). Whether a guy walks the Turkey Trot with his kid or stays home and watches football should have zero bearing on the evaluation of how good a runner you are.
Also, there's a bit of a performance spike at 40yo because a lot of folks feel energized to win a new division. 40-44 is often faster than 35-39. Times regress to the expected trend as you get into the mid-40s.
5K is also a weird distance to figure out percentiles for because of where it fits into road racing events. There are a lot of big-name HMs/marathons that also include a 5K division that might attract a lot of runners, but most of the serious runners are in the main event. (This is how I managed to win my first 5K.) So the HM might have a dozen guys under 1:10, but the 5K only has five under 20:00. Top 1% at the hobby 5K the day before the big marathon won't be the same as top 1% at Carlsbad, even if there are more overall runners in the hobby 5K.
Seems like just about all the 5k's in my area have winning masters times in the 18's or 19's. Would a sub 20 5k for a 40 year old put you in the top 1 percent of masters runners?
If you include parkruns then sub 20 definitely puts you in the top 1% of 40+ year old runners. Now if you mean competitive road races, where you pay to enter, then probably no. So it depends on what you mean.
At age 44, I was in16:30 shape before the 2019 club nationals 10k XC, ran as expected in very muddy conditions and finished in the top 50....With 444 finishers that is not even 10%.
Seems like just about all the 5k's in my area have winning masters times in the 18's or 19's. Would a sub 20 5k for a 40 year old put you in the top 1 percent of masters runners?
No way, top guys in their 50s are running low 16’s.
At age 44, I was in16:30 shape before the 2019 club nationals 10k XC, ran as expected in very muddy conditions and finished in the top 50....With 444 finishers that is not even 10%.
Top 10% of club nationals is probably way inside top 1% nationwide
There are more people participating in 5k events than ever before. So a sub 20:00 5k is more "impressive" only because the pool of possible "competitors" has increased.
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Yes location matters. Now at 43 don’t race anymore, last time I trained seriously I was 34, I finally started running again consistently in the beginning of this year a s so far my best times solo efforts are: 400m: 62”, 800m:2:20; 1 mi: 4:59; 5k: 17:31. I can definitely run a bit faster with racing conditions and also I can definitely run faster with more serous training. Currently running 4 days a week and around 22 mi per week.
I'm in my late 40's I ran pretty close to 20 flat last summer I my races, that put me in the top 3 or 4 in my age group in all my races, I didn't win any and there were never more than 25-30 runners in my age group, so nowhere near top 1%.
I've also noticed that M40 is usually the deepest division, at most of the races I go to, a 20 minute 5k would place higher in every division other than M40.
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