Wow, the Wood Report just put Natalie Cook as predicted to place 3rd, ahead of Tuohy in 4th. While I agree that Cook’s win at Stillwater at the Cowboy Jamboree was quite impressive, I don’t agree that it means she’ll defeat Tuohy.
This doesnt surprise me. I think NC State will prioritize winning overall.
Plus, Tuohy has not placed in top 10 in college XC NCAA champs yet. Yes she is super strong, but Cook just beat Roe who has run faster than Tuohy in both NCAA XC championships and placed top 5. Plus, I think Roe and Cook will both have big home course advantage. I think many are underestimating home course advantage and how strong Cook / Roe are. The coach said they are Cook and Roe are equally good, basically. Plus, Valby will push it as an individual runner.
I am a Tuohy fan in general (and others too!), but really not sure this is a shoo-in.
Certainly not a sure thing. If KT is healthy then I would say that she and Chelangat are the favorites. With KT you have to factor in that she was making her way back from injury/surgery in March, 2021 and had a fall and still some nagging injury in the November, 2021 race. From that point on she has been on fire. I know her college coach tries to hold her back training-wise and is thinking longterm, but from what it appears she seems fitter now than ever before, which is saying something.
I do agree about home course advantage, which Roe has had twice in three years. I guess we will have a better sense on Friday.
Certainly not a sure thing. If KT is healthy then I would say that she and Chelangat are the favorites. With KT you have to factor in that she was making her way back from injury/surgery in March, 2021 and had a fall and still some nagging injury in the November, 2021 race. From that point on she has been on fire. I know her college coach tries to hold her back training-wise and is thinking longterm, but from what it appears she seems fitter now than ever before, which is saying something.
I do agree about home course advantage, which Roe has had twice in three years. I guess we will have a better sense on Friday.
Since Roe does know the course so well, maybe the smart thing for Tuohy would be to get on her shoulder and stay there for 5K.
KT was keying off of Roe in the outdoor 5000, waiting for an attack that never came. I guess the lesson from November is get to the front and out of the tripping zone.
My impression is that she would prioritize winning the team title above all else, and would trade an individual title for a defending team title. But they are not inconsistent goals.
IMHO, Tuohy has a better chance of winning the individual title than Young does. Because of that I find it interesting that the Wood Report has Tuohy as 4th and Young as 3rd. Young has a great chance but he has some really tough competition. Dylan Jacobs hasn't even run yet. I believe that he opens his season this upcoming weekend in Louisville at the Live in Lou XC Classic. As a team, Tennessee is going to be a darkhorse. Carlson is going to do a great job there.
Tuohy has some very hard competition as it is probably as tough as what Nico Young faces but I just have more confidence in her to win the women's overall than I do Nico to win the men's overall. I do believe that Sam Bush, at 9th, is still ranked too highly in the new Wood Report. I just don't see her finishing that high.
IMHO, Tuohy has a better chance of winning the individual title than Young does. Because of that I find it interesting that the Wood Report has Tuohy as 4th and Young as 3rd. Young has a great chance but he has some really tough competition. Dylan Jacobs hasn't even run yet. I believe that he opens his season this upcoming weekend in Louisville at the Live in Lou XC Classic. As a team, Tennessee is going to be a darkhorse. Carlson is going to do a great job there.
Tuohy has some very hard competition as it is probably as tough as what Nico Young faces but I just have more confidence in her to win the women's overall than I do Nico to win the men's overall. I do believe that Sam Bush, at 9th, is still ranked too highly in the new Wood Report. I just don't see her finishing that high.
Jacobs and his Tennessee teammates will be at the Joe Piane Invitational on Friday.
Nico has not shown he has enough of a kick to win close races. If he wins it will need to be the way Mantz did by taking control of the race and pulling away earlier. At this point I don't think Nico is strong enough to do that vs. the field.
Tuohy has a much better chance of winning IMO.
except for when he closed a championship race faster than anyone who’s not the same age as grant fisher
Jacobs and his Tennessee teammates will be at the Joe Piane Invitational on Friday.
Yep, I see that now. They have Live in Lou listed on the schedule but my guess is that is the women's team or the "B" runners. It wouldn't make sense for them not to be at Piane since Carlson is now the UT coach.
IMHO, Tuohy has a better chance of winning the individual title than Young does. Because of that I find it interesting that the Wood Report has Tuohy as 4th and Young as 3rd. Young has a great chance but he has some really tough competition. Dylan Jacobs hasn't even run yet. I believe that he opens his season this upcoming weekend in Louisville at the Live in Lou XC Classic. As a team, Tennessee is going to be a darkhorse. Carlson is going to do a great job there.
Tuohy has some very hard competition as it is probably as tough as what Nico Young faces but I just have more confidence in her to win the women's overall than I do Nico to win the men's overall. I do believe that Sam Bush, at 9th, is still ranked too highly in the new Wood Report. I just don't see her finishing that high.
Prior to the start of the season, I would have predicted Bush around 20-25 at Nationals. But after seeing Bush run a 16:14 (5k) in the first race of the season at the Adidas Challenge, I can see Bush potentially somewhere in the range of 10-15 at Nationals. And Bush did finish 10th in the 5000m outdoor NCAAs a few months ago. She is on an upward trajectory.
I'm really excited to see what Tuohy runs in her first race. If she runs this Friday, I bet she goes under 16:00.
Prior to the start of the season, I would have predicted Bush around 20-25 at Nationals. But after seeing Bush run a 16:14 (5k) in the first race of the season at the Adidas Challenge, I can see Bush potentially somewhere in the range of 10-15 at Nationals. And Bush did finish 10th in the 5000m outdoor NCAAs a few months ago. She is on an upward trajectory.
I'm really excited to see what Tuohy runs in her first race. If she runs this Friday, I bet she goes under 16:00.
I agree that Bush seems to be on an upward trajectory but she seem to have a history of being a bit inconsistent and my comments are based on that. If that gets sorted out she has potential for a high placement.