I keep seeing form as an argument….why does that matter at all?
Good form doesn’t always mean you have great execution. Hobbs had great form coming into the last 100m and folded at USA prelims. Hocker can drop 12.1 with his arms all over the place in a 3:35 race. I’ll take that any day over someone who has great form but not a great close.
When you scout NBA talent, you don’t look for who has the best form, you look for who shoots the best based off percentage. I’d rather take the guy with the ugliest form who can shoot 35% from three than the guy who has silky smooth form who only shoots 30%.
Cole has a biomechanical limit. Hobbs is smooth as silk.
(Fairly) long term, Hobbs will be in the discussion, Hocker will be asking if you want fries with that.
I like Hocker, I think he will be good enough, but as far as longer range upside, and everyone knows I am biased, but in all my years of watching guys,, from my HS days thru Penn Relays, thru HS Nats first at Raleigh and then at Greensboro, and many many web casts, Kessler may the the most efficient bio mechanically sound guy I have see by 19 years old as an American. Kessler ran 8:39 two mile in his only real serious attempt at the distance with a 25.x first 220 of the last 440. He also relayed 1:47.9 , he was way ahead of what Hocker did in HS, which matters not at this point, but even his starting points were better. I actually think 3K which , I know is not a real Championship event, might be his best distance, if that's possible. I believe he will run under 7:35 before he turns 20.I think he breaks 13:00 for sure as well , sometime in the future, past 4 years out. His form, stride pattern and arm carriage are amazing, for such a young guy and his underside speed is more than ample enough, such that when he gets stronger he will be able to really punch down at the end of races where he fades a bit today.
I keep seeing form as an argument….why does that matter at all?
Good form doesn’t always mean you have great execution. Hobbs had great form coming into the last 100m and folded at USA prelims. Hocker can drop 12.1 with his arms all over the place in a 3:35 race. I’ll take that any day over someone who has great form but not a great close.
When you scout NBA talent, you don’t look for who has the best form, you look for who shoots the best based off percentage. I’d rather take the guy with the ugliest form who can shoot 35% from three than the guy who has silky smooth form who only shoots 30%.
Cole has a biomechanical limit. Hobbs is smooth as silk.
(Fairly) long term, Hobbs will be in the discussion, Hocker will be asking if you want fries with that.
The day that Hobbs can string together enough healthy weeks to run at USA's (much less make the team), I'll listen.. Until then, I'll go with the Olympian.
Strong agree with your first paragraph, strong disagree on the second. Hocker was everyone's favorite for the trials after winning 2 national titles indoors and running 3:50 for 5th in the Bowerman Mile, well ahead of eventual national champ Teare. He wasn't running injured the whole season, he was running injured for one race at nationals after not running a single step for the 2 weeks before. The simplest answer is just that the 21 year old in his first year as a pro got a bit cocky after having a perfect 18 months and got injured. That's a learning experience every pro has to go through, it just normally happens before they're reigning national champions and 6th at the Olympics.
I keep seeing form as an argument….why does that matter at all?
Good form doesn’t always mean you have great execution. Hobbs had great form coming into the last 100m and folded at USA prelims. Hocker can drop 12.1 with his arms all over the place in a 3:35 race. I’ll take that any day over someone who has great form but not a great close.
When you scout NBA talent, you don’t look for who has the best form, you look for who shoots the best based off percentage. I’d rather take the guy with the ugliest form who can shoot 35% from three than the guy who has silky smooth form who only shoots 30%.
Hockers biomechanics are fine tbh. He gets a little wild with the arms on the final lap, but his stride is good and he can turnover his legs at an incredible rate. Its nothing like Drew Hunter where he looks clunky and has no fluidity to his stride.
Its a nonissue in the long run for Hocker, he can even probably fix his arm carriage with some practice too.
Strong agree with your first paragraph, strong disagree on the second. Hocker was everyone's favorite for the trials after winning 2 national titles indoors and running 3:50 for 5th in the Bowerman Mile, well ahead of eventual national champ Teare. He wasn't running injured the whole season, he was running injured for one race at nationals after not running a single step for the 2 weeks before. The simplest answer is just that the 21 year old in his first year as a pro got a bit cocky after having a perfect 18 months and got injured. That's a learning experience every pro has to go through, it just normally happens before they're reigning national champions and 6th at the Olympics.
Totally fair POV.
And I get what you're saying but at least for me and what I was seeing, despite the 3.50 at the Bowerman mile, he just didn't look like the explosive, powerful runner of 2021. Yeah sure he had the indoor titles but this was Feb and just a contributing to factor to him being flat in the outdoor season. He looked average in his one outdoor 1500m prior to trials (Walnut) where he got beaten by Gourley and Tanner in a race perfectly suited to him, and even recently the result in Luzern he was easily handled by Nuguse and 4 others. When we look at the injury prior to worlds, what is the primary reason distance runners in particular get hurt? Overtraining and fatigue - especially the cumulative type
So I'll retract - he wasn't running injured the whole season, he was running himself into the ground as a culmination of the previous 18 months and finally hurt himself at the worst possible time. Does that sound more reasonable?
The one fact that Hobbs supporters don’t want to bring up is Ben Flanagan is 2-0 against Hobbs in his speciality event!
Didn't know that Ben raced in events that weren't low-comp road races.
wow, you are a douche..lol, is this your thing? Coming on and ripping anything associated with Kessler or Flanagan. Low comp road races? Falmouth has been a Premier event for decades, get a history book
The big advantage Kessler has is being around and having Willis mentoring him. Willis knew how to build a career - I mean the guy had the greatest longevity in the history of middle distance running bar nobody. So I think Willis will help Kessler manage his workload and progression and sure, we haven't seen 3.30 yet or Olympic finals but the dude is only 19 years old for christs sake. Pretty good to have 1.46, 2.16 and 3.34 as a start point and a guy that understands maybe taking a little extra time to get to 3.30 is better long term than rushing to it, having that bright light and never being seen again (Andrew Wheating anyone?).
I'm a HUGE advocate of Hocker and he's incredible but this season is really worrisome. Wrote here before I wondered when his final collegiate season of running everything (including pointless 5000m races etc) would catch up with him and it was this season. Dude looked tired and running on fumes and the question will be do him and his coach a) recognise this and b) know how to remedy it. That seems like it's straight forwards but it's not that simple (especially for young, keen and motivated athletes) that basically need to tell themselves to back off for 6 months to get right. You can convince yourself that 6 months of backing off will be too many steps back to ever recover from when in reality it's not that difficult at all. What's difficult is trying to compete on an empty tank which is why the Olympic 6th placer couldn't make it out of round 1 at the trials and was running injured the whole season.
Both are great, both are incredibly talented. If you ask me today it's Kessler because I trust the team around him and need to see evidence of the same from Hockers camp which didn't appear to be there this last season.
You spent a lot of time bagging on Hocker’s 2022 season. How did Kessler do this year compared to last?
Wait, are you contending the 2022 season is a good one? Last season they guy won NCAA's and trials with performances as good historically as many global championship winning races of the past and this year he hasn't run within 5 seconds of his PR and didn't make it out of the first round of nationals. That's not bagging the guy it's stating fact and if anything I'm advocating for him and am very empathic of the situation he's in.
Kessler's last year is irrelevant - the kid was 18 for starters and this thread isn't about the past it's about the future and literally has that word in the title of the thread. It's about hypothetically whose career you want moving forward and it's just my opinion that Kessler has a great and experienced crew around him that know how to grow into a career patiently. Why don't you actually just read stuff before coming up with an lazy rebuttal like that?
Both had great years last year. Both have had not great years this year. Cole is 21, not sure why you think that is so different than 19. At this point Cole is much more impressive.
Both had great years last year. Both have had not great years this year. Cole is 21, not sure why you think that is so different than 19. At this point Cole is much more impressive.
This isn’t a thread about “at this point” and “who is more impressive”. Congrats for stating the obvious that a multiple NCAA champ/national champ/Olympic 6th placer is more impressive as of today than someone without that resume. Once again, it’s not the question asked. You couldn’t even offer an opinion as to who you like career wise moving forwards with some kind of basis. Sometimes I think I’m in the Stranger Things upside down world with some of these posts.
Both had great years last year. Both have had not great years this year. Cole is 21, not sure why you think that is so different than 19. At this point Cole is much more impressive.
This isn’t a thread about “at this point” and “who is more impressive”. Congrats for stating the obvious that a multiple NCAA champ/national champ/Olympic 6th placer is more impressive as of today than someone without that resume. Once again, it’s not the question asked. You couldn’t even offer an opinion as to who you like career wise moving forwards with some kind of basis. Sometimes I think I’m in the Stranger Things upside down world with some of these posts.
Both of you make valid points. Yes, Kessler has a great team who can take the gradual long-term developmental approach with him, and Hocker’s 2022 outdoor season was a concerning disappointment.
At the same time, what they’ve achieved thus far matters because it shows what they’re capable of. We know Hocker is capable of being a U.S. champion, Olympic finalist, and 3:31/13:08 guy because he’s done it. We don’t know yet if Kessler can reach that higher level.
All we can do is try to project, but that’s difficult to do with teenagers because so many teenage phenoms have failed to reach that higher level. Look at German Fernandez. At age 18, he ran a 3:55 indoor mile, 13:25 American junior record 5K, and won the NCAA championship in the 1500. The future looked bright for him, but now he’s retired at age 31 and he never ran a 5K faster than that 13:25 despite training with BTC. We just never know how teenagers will pan out. For that reason, I believe Hocker is the safer bet for future success because he has already proven he can compete at the highest level.
That said, I’m excited for both of them, and I hope they both make many national teams, run under 3:30, and win medals.
All we can do is try to project, but that’s difficult to do with teenagers because so many teenage phenoms have failed to reach that higher level. Look at German Fernandez. At age 18, he ran a 3:55 indoor mile, 13:25 American junior record 5K, and won the NCAA championship in the 1500. The future looked bright for him, but now he’s retired at age 31 and he never ran a 5K faster than that 13:25 despite training with BTC. We just never know how teenagers will pan out. For that reason, I believe Hocker is the safer bet for future success because he has already proven he can compete at the highest level.
The list of high school phenoms who fail to make the jump to world class is endless. Of 18 boys who have broken he 4 minute mile, only three made it to legit world class (ok some are too young to know as of now). Matthew Maton, remember that guy? I was there for his 3:59 at Hayward. He vanished. Mary Cain, anyone? That said, Hobbs has a lot of wisdom around him. Hopefully Cole gets over his injuries and gets back in contention next year.
This isn’t a thread about “at this point” and “who is more impressive”. Congrats for stating the obvious that a multiple NCAA champ/national champ/Olympic 6th placer is more impressive as of today than someone without that resume. Once again, it’s not the question asked. You couldn’t even offer an opinion as to who you like career wise moving forwards with some kind of basis. Sometimes I think I’m in the Stranger Things upside down world with some of these posts.
Both of you make valid points. Yes, Kessler has a great team who can take the gradual long-term developmental approach with him, and Hocker’s 2022 outdoor season was a concerning disappointment.
At the same time, what they’ve achieved thus far matters because it shows what they’re capable of. We know Hocker is capable of being a U.S. champion, Olympic finalist, and 3:31/13:08 guy because he’s done it. We don’t know yet if Kessler can reach that higher level.
All we can do is try to project, but that’s difficult to do with teenagers because so many teenage phenoms have failed to reach that higher level. Look at German Fernandez. At age 18, he ran a 3:55 indoor mile, 13:25 American junior record 5K, and won the NCAA championship in the 1500. The future looked bright for him, but now he’s retired at age 31 and he never ran a 5K faster than that 13:25 despite training with BTC. We just never know how teenagers will pan out. For that reason, I believe Hocker is the safer bet for future success because he has already proven he can compete at the highest level.
That said, I’m excited for both of them, and I hope they both make many national teams, run under 3:30, and win medals.
Hey at least you made some rational points here, but I'm still confused about how "what they have achieved thus far matters" and here's why.
First of all is the obvious, Hocker is nearly 27 months older than Kessler and his best season and achievements all happened at an age that Kessler hasn't even got to yet. So really we could do the same comparison with the Newbury Park kids and come to the conclusion that Hocker is better and thus has has a better future.
Secondly if we are going off the past and the recent past in particular we could look and simplistically say "well Hocker had an amazing season in 2021 but a terrible one in 2022 so he's trending down and conversely Kessler had an average season in 21 but a good season in 22 so he's trending up" and use that to come a conclusion.
But again, this thread isn't titled "If each runners career ended today whose was better - Hocker or Kessler" because that answer is obvious. This is a question of potential of which yes a facet is "what they've done so far" but also age, how they are trending season to season, who are their coaching and support team, environment and expectation - all of these combined.
You wrote a great post and I would actually love to hear your take on their potential with basis not just taking into account past results which is really a small element of this question.