-- UNPOPULAR OPINION : Jakob won't improve his 1500 PB this year --

Undefeated in 1500m finals?

You make a Captain Obvious post. I told you it was such a no brainer post but my post was removed (I assume because I wasn’t nice enough) and here you are trying to say your obvious no brainer post was somehow in the minority? Please….

If there were a poll before Lausanne DL, and before Zurich DL, with the question being : " Will Jakob break his PR in one of those DL race " . I would bet the result would be, at the very least, 60% yes.

I am not sure about that. Maybe so but Jakob doubled at World Championships and European Championships so it would have been a bit of a surprise to many of us if he had run a personal best after that. It is a bit difficult for me to speak for the ill informed segment though.

Now that's going out on a limb with what, one race left in his season?

Well to be fair…they have an inexperienced but high-level pacer( Ramsden) in Zurich. But then no wavelight and he runs suboptimal pacing and doesn’t make it to 1000. I think Tim being there helped for the first 200 of the last lap. In Lausanne the pacing is better but still a bit less distance paced than optimal and Jakob is more or less unchallenged the last 500. So neither of these races were ideal setups to me.

Not too big a surprise.

He missed tying his PR yesterday by 0.70 seconds

Okay, I did forget that one little World Championship race.

I didn´t see this thread before today but I agree with others that it is not surprising that Jakob hasn´t PRed in a year with 2 international championships.

The 5000m: Are you aware that Jakob only ran championship races this year.

I know you are one of these negativists who take every opportunity to denigrate Jakob BUT I WILL GIVE YOU A CHALLENGE: WHAT DO YOU THINK JAKOB´S PBs WILL BE AT THE END OF HIS CARER.

I will give you opinion in my next post (a post I have been working on the last week; I publish it here instead of starting a new thread).

What will Jakob
Ingebrigtsen´s – rewised – PBs from the 1500m to the 5000m be at the end of his
career?

I write REWISED because he already has exceeded what many posters during the years have predicted. More about that below.

I have for years – at least from late 2018 – predicted that he will break all the WRs on the said
distances.
I would say his career PBs will be:
Sub 3:25 in the 1500m
Sub 3:42 in the mile
Sub 4:43 in the 2000m
Sub 7:20 in the 3000m and
Sub 12:32 in the 5000m.

Why am I so optimistic in a year where he for the first time in his career didn´t improve any of his PBs significantly? (he “only” improved his indoor 1500m with 1.2 second (= WR) and his mile with 0.78second)?
Because he in my opinion has potential to make big improvements on most distances but didn´t do so due to lack of possibilities the last years to join fast races on the respective distances.

The 1500m:
He ran 3:31 low in DL
Monaco already in 2018. But after that the pacemaking in Monaco wasn´t optimum for fast races in 2019 and 2020. And in 2021 where the pacemaking was much better Jakob was coming back from a throatinfection so he “only” ran 3:29 mid.
His performance in the Olympic final in Tokyo, however, suggests that he already in 2021 was sub 3:27. I will be surprised if he doesn´t break 3:28 NEXT YEAR provided he stays healthy and
continues his efficient mostly aerobic training. AND I WON´T BE SURPRISED IF HE BREAKS 3:27 next year. (I see now that zxcvzxcv has the same opinion!)

The mile:
Provided he joins a fast race (the Bislett dream mile?) I think he can go below 3:45.5 next year.

The 2000m:
Provided he runs it again soon under good conditions I predict he can go sub 4:46. The IMPOSSIBLE GAMES 2000m in early 2020 where he ran 4:50 was run by the Ingebrigtsen brothers as a team effort where the older brothers reportedly prohibited Jakob from running away before the last lap. If the brothers had acted as pacemakers for Jakob he would possibly have run at least 4:48 in 2020.

The 3000m:
Jakob ran 7:27 in the late season of 2020 at a time where he was possibly not at his very best. Next year where he is 3 years older I estimate he can run at least 7:22-23. I am not the only one who are “bullish” on his potential here: Some of the serious and neutral posters have made similar predictions, including THOUGHTSLEADER and I think also John Wesley Harding and zxvcvxcz.

The 5000m:
Jakob didn´t run a time trial 5000m this year but he was possibly able to run at least 12:45 in 2021 where he convincingly beat some of the top runners, imcluding Gebrhiwet, Mo Ahmed and Cheptegei in the DL Florens 5000m. He ran 12:48 for the win but would possibly have been able to hang on if Cheptegei had continued to run 61 laps.
Also Jacob Krop, Nicolas Kipkorir Kimeli and Grant Fisher have run 12:45 and 12:46 this year and Jakob beat all of them easily in the WC 5000m final.
I predict Jakob can run close to 12:40 in a perfect paced 5000m time trial next year. And hopefully in a race joined by many of the current top runners.

And again: I am not alone.
I think THOUGHTSLEADER, John Wesley Harding and zxvcvxcz have made similar predictions.
Older brother Henrik - who is supporting Jakob after the brothers fired father Gjert as their trainer -estimated after the WC 5000m gold that Jakob would able to run 12:40 already now. And there is good reason to listen to Henrik since he knows first hand all Jakob´s training times which trainings times most likely shows that Jakob is still improving.

Jakob himself has also been very optimistic regarding improving his times next year and I suppose that it is based on the same: He knows that his training times – fore example the 1000m reps run at lactate number 3.1-3.2- are still lowering. These times started at just below 3:10 for Henrik as a teenager. Then going down to 2:55 when Jakob was a teenager. One or two years ago the times were around 2:45 and I suppose Jakob is close to 2:40 now (for a 1000m run aerobically).

I predict Jakob will improve further the next years at least until he is in his mid twenties
provided he stays motivated and healthy and continues his efficient mainly aerobic training. And that he therefore can realize the above predicted career PBs.

Correction: Jakob´s time in the Olympic 1500m final suggests that he was already SUB 3.28 last year.

Before people get too upset about my above optimistic prediction for Jakob career PBs I will quote some earlier predictions on these boards:

From January 2018 (Jakob 17):

"Ex-runner:
4 years ago 01/17/2018 7:46am EST
re: Middledist
Reply

It's amazing that he is running such great times so young.
However the fact is he will get stuck at around 3:31 like his brothers. This kid isn't going to run 3:26.
The Kenyans couldn't care less about Jakob running 3:39 at 16 or whatever.
If he wants to win any medals like Fillip then he better work on his speed. Forget this half marathon ability nonsense.
Steeplechase would be a better aim for him I agree.
Jakob appears to have less of a kick than Fillip, even in junior races he has a less pronounced turn of speed and prefers to make it a long run for home. Fillip has a much better kick than Henrik also despite both being quality athletes. It is what won Fillip a
bronze medal in London and the only way to medal these days.
Nobody is running 3:28 from the front for 3.75 laps like Hicham anymore...

--------------------
Coevett:
On the bright side, with improved testing and Kenya, Morocco's expulsion if they don't bring in much stricter testing, it's likely 3:31 will become the new 3:26.
And 5000 seems to be his best event. He improved by over a minute last year to 13:35. It's not inconcievable is it that he could cut another 35 seconds off that in the next 3 years is it (when he'll still only be 20)?

Top 5 5000m runners 2017.
1 12:55.23 Muktar EDRIS 14
JAN 1994 ETH ETH 1 Lausanne (Pontaise) 06 JUL 2017
2 12:55.58 Selemon BAREGA
20 JAN 2000 ETH ETH 2 Lausanne (Pontaise) 06 JUL 2017
3 12:59.83 Joshua Kiprui CHEPTEGEI 12 SEP 1996 UGA UGA 3 Lausanne (Pontaise)
06 JUL 2017
4 13:00.70 Mohamed FARAH 23
MAR 1983 GBR GBR 1 Eugene (Hayward Field), OR 27 MAY 2017
13:01.04 Muktar EDRIS 14
JAN 1994 ETH ETH 1 Somerville (Dilboy Stadium), MA 02 JUN 2017
5 13:01.21 Yomif KEJELCHA
01 AUG 1997 ETH ETH 2 Eugene (Hayward Field), OR 27 MAY 2017

--------------------
Ex-runner:
I don't want to do
that ridiculous calculo speculating thing but if you think Edris was only a 12:55 runner last year then you're sorely mistaken.
You need to be able to run 12:50 to be up there and have a strong kick. I don't see Jakob as being that athlete. Sorry.
Can we remember that Yomif Kejelcha ran 7:36 at 17 and he hasn't won anything outdoors at the senior level."

Note:

Even Coevett was too pessimistic: Jakob improved his 5000m time with 47 seconds from age 16 to age 20!

Some more quotations from January 2018:

4 years ago 01/16/2018 6:46pm EST

Subway Surfers
Addiction wrote:
... he will peak at about 19,
like Ryun etc.
GBohannoon:
Bold move to put an “etc”
after citing only 1 example.
What others did you have in
mind? Fernandez, Verzbicas, ??? Any European examples? (Please note that I am
not being disagreeable; I am genuinely curious)

Suwway surfers addiction:
Do I really need to give
more examples? Over some thirty plus years in the sport I have seen half a
dozen examples annually in my area alone, virtually all fizzled out. And that
isn't including historical examples.
1500m PERFORMANCE PLACE
DATE
2017 3:39.92 Stockholm
(Olympiastadion) 18 JUN
2016 3:42.44 Oslo (Bislett)
09 JUN
2015 3:48.37 Stockholm
(Olympiastadion) 30 JUL
2014 4:05.49 Sandnes 20 SEP
So from 2014 to 2015 he
improved by 17s, then 5.93s the next year, then 2.52s, what is the trend? He is
slowing is annual gains, the law of diminishing returns. He is essentially
professionally trained already, going for long stints at altitude, which brings
you to a new level of fitness earlier. Basically at 18 he will be at the same
stage as a standard elite western miler @ 24/25. I can see him improving just
enough to say 3:37 in the next year or two, which would get him into big races
that are won in 3:31 and so doing he could be dragged through to 3:33/34, after
that it is all incremental.

Kartelite:
His mile PR is more like
3:38.low, so his actual improvement last year was more like 4 seconds. Wouldn't
surprise me to see him in the 3:35 range this year, and even small improvements
after the age of 17 (how could you not expect that?) will put him in the mix
for major titles. His brothers are already some of the best in the world (if
not among the super-elite, although with Filip's medal that's arguable) and
assuming he's the most talented of the 3 it's not hard to see him reaching well
into the 3:20s. Besides didn't he front run an 8:26 steeple and 13:35 5k? For a
16-year-old those times are at least as impressive. He qualified for the WCs at
the age of a high school sophomore (possibly junior) - when was the last time
if ever an American distance runner did that?

Some quotations from august 2018 where Jakob had improved his 1500m to 3:31.18 and his 5000m to 13:17.??:

4 years ago 08/12/2018 8:06am EDT

toomanyspikes:

All of you people saying
he's gonna run 3:24-3:25 are nuts. Like some others have already stated,
Jakob's family has been quoted saying that he's been training like a
pro for the last 7-8 years; the odds of him having the longevity to
develop into a WR holder are INCREDIBLY slim, let alone the fact that it would
take some CRAZY drugs for him to progress 5-7 seconds in the 1500m at this high
of a level (that's not to say I think he's doping, I think he's clean but just
a Ryun-type).
I'm with whoever said he
could end up like Jim Ryun, peaking super early. I think Jakob will still be
really good, maybe even a world championship medalist or world champion in his
future, but I think there's a very low chance he makes it past 3:29 and 13:00.
He just doesn't have the years left in his legs to run as fast as some of you
guys think, and it's not as if he hasn't hit puberty so we're basically
watching a young adult run. Past puberty, those massive improvements are few
and far between. They happen, just probably not to a 3:31 guy.
---------------
osm wrote:
Post your predictions here.
3:29.0
12:56

------------------
Bokaj:
3:28 / 12:51
The 5k will be the drug
free world record. No one clean has run under 12:54 to this date.
He needs to show us
improvement in the 800 to hit that 3:28. Without EPO cheats like Lagat who
couldn't crack 1:46 even when chasing the best in the world. Of course the
apologists make up all kinds of excuses and provide bizarre explanations. Mo
Farah is an even more hilarious example of this.
However Jakob may not ever
medal at the Olympics or WCs if officials continue the recent let up in the
minimal testing E. Africans go through - all due to trying to play off the
Kiprop mess. The only way he'll win major titles is for drugs to be eliminated
for the most part or to be in the right type of tactical race - like the Rio
1500 - in which the dopers' advantages are negated.
---------------

zxcvzxcv:
3:27/12:54
The kid's been trained with
pros for years already, but he's still due for about 4 or 5 years of
improvement simply because of physical maturity. He just got his growth this
year. He must have grown 4-5 inches in the past year. He's about to turn 18
(next month), so he's not likely to grow much more.
Give him three or four
years to full strength and coordination after he stops growing. 3:27 is pretty
ambitious for the kid but it seems possible to me. He'll run 3:29 next year.
The way he's closed 5000s here and world junior's this year make me think he is
very good at the distance and can run a lot faster. Sub 13s have become rare,
though, and so opportunities to draft off of sub 13 pace are hard to find. That
limits the pr's of the whole current generation of runners.
----------------

Vdickkcda wrote:
3:30.2
13:04

---------
Ehsil:
Bunch of morons, trolls,
and white supremacists here. This guy from page one is the most likely to be
correct. Up to 1.5 seconds faster at 1500m and 6 seconds faster at 5000m could
also be called “reasonable”. Anything faster than that is moronic.
------------------

Blarch:
Did ya'll just completely
forget about Mary Cain?....and every other phenom out of America the past 10
years?
I say 3:29 next year and
Silver at World Champs. Maybe 12:59 but likely closer to 13:01. Fast 5k's just
dont happen anymore. Even Chelimo hasn't broken 13, it doesn't really matter to
people. Unfortunately it's more than likely that he burns out at 20/21. I don't
wish that upon him, but he's had a huge work rate at such a young age. I hope
he can stay healthy through this next Olympics because he looks like a quality
championship racer at this point.

And next year his focus will also be the WC.

And year after that his focus will be the Olympics.

1500 : 3:27:1X

5000 : 12:39:8X

My last quotation about earlier prediction of Jakob´s final PBs:

Salvatore Stichmo wrote
(recently):
“Totally agree and he is
definitely a generational talent - mentally even more than physically (like
almost all the truly dominant athletes across all sports are).”

Objectiveobserver wrote:
“+1 But as you say yourself his mental " talent", including his diligence/ work ethics,
is possibly the most important part of it.
Jakob himself will possibly deny that it is talent stressing that it is right (aerobic) training over many, many years which is the reason to his success.

Very similar to Peter Snell who said : "I didn´t have a WONDERFUL talent but I trained right".

Snell also said that if he should choose a young athlete he would rather look for the
desire to achieve than for pure physical abilty.
----------
By the way:
It is interesting to see how people have changed their view on Jakob over the last years.
Even you, Salvatore, who I consider one of the more serious posters here was much more dismissive some few years ago as this quotation shows:

"Salvatore Stitchmo (from early 2020 after the IMPOSSIBLE GAMES 2000m):
“Everything you said here is right on.
My question is that this rate of progression simply has to slow down at some point - obviously Jakob is super accelerated with respect to age and ability - could it be that he simply starts tapping out before he even hits 22? This is quite possible.

What do I think he's going to run if he stays healthy?
1500: 3.29.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
Mile: 3.48.0 +/- 0.2 seconds
2000m 4.49.5 +/- 0.5 seconds (if he ever runs one again which he may not)
3000m: 7.30.0 +/- 0.5 seconds
50000m: 12.55 +/- 1 second
I believe it's easy to just think he's going to blast his PR's every single time he's on the track. But his bank of cumulative hard efforts is well and truly underway. If he hit the best case for each of my predictions he is basically Mo Farah without the drugs which gives an
idea of how good I am assuming he is.
As for WR's though? - to quote James - "not even remotely"
"

--------
Objectiveobserver:
“I suppose you now agree
that Jakob also will surpass your prediction regarding the 2000m if he ever
runs that distance again under good conditions?
----------------------
Salvatore Stitchmo´s recent answer:
“Nice find! Yeah I wouldn't say that was dismissive in any way, it was at the time the level I
thought he would get to (based on a hypothesis his rapid improvement was possibly not sustainable) and come on, not like any of those performances are bad! I mean if Jakob was an Olympic/World champ and had that lifetime resume of PR's it still makes him one of the greatest MD runners of all time.

And yet I was totally wrong which I am happy to admit because he's even better!
This would now be my revision for him based on the last 12 months

1500m 3.27.2 +/- 0.2
seconds
Mile 3.44.8 +/- 0.2 seconds
2000m 4.47.2 +/- 0.5
seconds
3000m 7.25.5 +/- 0.5 seconds
5000m 12.44.5 +/- 0.5
seconds

I still stand by the WR's
POV.

Obviously his best chance is at his best event - the 1500m/Mile but I don't know if he has the pure leg speed to run into the 26's. You could point to Lagat who had a recorded 800m PR of 1.46 and also El G at 1.47 but there is zero doubt when both of them were in low 3.26 shape they were 1.44 high runners at worst (and I think El Guerrouj more like 1.43's). The optics and strengths of Jakob and my gut feeling is that he can run in the 1.45 mid range but I don't know if that's enough. The 2000m and 3000m records are just ridiculous -
especially the 3000m, but the 2000 is sneakily incredible - 3.49.6 for 4 laps then 55.19 to close? I could see JI going 3.51.x through 1200 then grinding out a 55.x

Again, just my opinion - would be happy to wrong on this again too!”

---------------

Objectiveobserver´s comments today:

Salvatore was quite underestimating Jakob in the early season of 2020 we know now.

I will say that Jakob at that time already could run faster than 3:28.8 in the 1500m since Jakob some month later ran 3:28.68 in Monaco where a certain Timothy Sein as the first pacer ran insane 52.59 on the first lap so Jakob had to run alone most of the race (until just after 1100m).

3:28 in the 1500m equals 3:45 in the mile so Salvatores mile prediction of 3:47.8 were possibly also at the time a clear underestimate.

We don´t know for certain about Salvatores 4:47.8 the 2000m but I have argued in my former post that Jakob would have run at least 4:48 in the IMPOSSIBLE GAMES in 2020 if the older brothers had served as pacemakers for Jakob.

3000m: Jakob ran 7:27 in the end of the season 2020 so he could most likely have run faster than Salvatores estimate of 7:29.5 already when estimated.

5000M: Jakob didn´t run the 5000m in 2020 where Salvatore estimated he would never run faster than 12:54. But he could possibly already have run under that in 2020 since he ran 12:48 in the early season 2021 in DL Florence and possibly in the same race could have run around 12:45 if the pace hasn´t slowed after 4000m.

------------------

Regarding Salvatore´s new predictions:

I think Jakob once again at this very moment has potential to run faster than Salvatore has predicted for his whole career. SEE MY PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT YEAR ABOVE.

I have to say this is an impressive amount of thread-searching and quoting. I don't even know how you did this! :D

Hey as I freely admitted I was wrong on my first gut feelings regarding his potential. I do feel very good about my new set of PR's - even more so with these last 2 races of the season in Lausanne/Zurich.

I think one mistake people can make is looking at someone and saying "well if they have this pace, on this day, on this track, with this circumstance and that circumstance - they will run xxx" and it's all about best case scenario stuff. Except life and running isn't like this. At one point in a humans life they will approach a window where their ultimate athletic potential can be realized. Now when you talk of ultimate peak it's hard to know exactly how many times in a career this even happens and especially exactly when. So now think of how hard it is, over a range of events (like 1500m-5000m which is the 15, mile, 3 and 5) to have that window open and everything else aligning. And I'm talking about stuff like the weather, your emotional state, race script (ie. does a pacemaker or competitor f--k it up for you) - stuff like this. I would guess that a very very low percentage of athletes - pro or recreational ever get everything absolutely right while that window is open and run extremely close to their absolute ceiling potential.

So sure, I can sit here and fantasize about what Jakob could do with the absolute perfect combination of everything. But then I need to take that into account with my gut feeling on what his absolute ceiling is and then assume he does that for every distance he takes shots at? I don't want to be pessimistic but that's not realistically happening. So my revised opinion comes as I (we) have seen Jakob evolve and we get to see a larger sample size of races. I mentioned Lausanne/Zurich earlier. You know for me when I see these races, as incredibly impressive as they are (front running 3.29.0's is something only 2-3 athletes ever have been able to do) I don't see really where 3 seconds comes from to break the WR. Now that's just my opinion from watching a lot of races in my life and even being lucky enough to see the greats up close and personal (sometimes even warming up or running with them). Without sub 1.44.5 speed Jakob does not have a chance to break 3.26.00 - he doesn't. Hicham was a 1.43 800, 7.23 3000 guy. Jakob right now is a 1.46, 7.27 guy. I don't see where 2 seconds comes from in the 800m - and that's okay because it's not his event and it doesn't suit his running style or physiology.

Anyway, appreciate your effort and opinion - it's what the message board needs. Will be an interesting next 2-3 years (probably his career peak performance window) which will give him 5-6 years of that peak potential window which would be a pretty large window tbh. I'm sure the analysis will continue.

I think he is very close to his peak in 1500m already but can still improve quite a lot in longer distances.

800 : 1:45.8

1500 : 3.26.9

3000 : 7.24

5000 : 12.34-12.40

10 000 and above who knows, will he run those as prime distance one day? I think so.

I can see him having the WR in the half marathon.