Tesla's market performance is based on the magical thinking of those who idolize tech bros. They're struggling of late and their erratic pricing, both of cars and supercharging, only point toward the increasing unpredictability of Mush. I would not bet on Tesla at this point. The legacy makers, especially VW and Ford, not to mention the Chinese, have bet the farm on EV tech and I believe they'll smush Mush in coming years.
Tesla's market performance is based on the magical thinking of those who idolize tech bros. They're struggling of late and their erratic pricing, both of cars and supercharging, only point toward the increasing unpredictability of Mush. I would not bet on Tesla at this point. The legacy makers, especially VW and Ford, not to mention the Chinese, have bet the farm on EV tech and I believe they'll smush Mush in coming years.
This is true. Tesla has not done anything in last 2 years except raising prices. If they dont step up their game its only a matter of time when Korean or European brands start making better EVs.
Model Y is a golf cart with an iPad. I really don't get the hype. Have any of you Tesla bulls sat in the backseat? It's terrible. It almost hurts to sit back there. I have no idea why anyone would pay 67k+ for this crappy car.
We have an ID4 on order. After tax incentives it's nearly half the price and 10x more comfortable. I don't care about the software. It's a car, not a laptop.
Your lack of understanding (and that of the OP) is truly profound.
No. This is actually correct. While Tesla currently has about a 20-25% market share for EVs, SAIC-GM (joint venture between GM and Chinese EV maker) is catching up very quickly. It is selling lots of mini EVs that are hugely popular in China and are very cheap (starting at around $4,500 for a bare bones EV). These EVs could take over the market in Europe where people are already used to driving tiny diesels in cities due to extremely high gas prices and limited parking. These vehicles should be popular in the US, but we are dummies and will keep driving F250 diesels from our 4,000 sq ft McMansion in the sprawl suburbs 35 miles to a cubicle job in the city. Maybe a few more years of $5+ a gallon and things will change in the US.
On the other hand, I don't see the other majors moving very quickly on EVs. Most of the EVs that are in the pipeline are SUVs that cost $50k+. And the current US charging infrastructure is not ready for a huge increase in EVs, which puts a cap on near term market growth. And as much as people like to bash on Tesla, they do have very strong owner loyalty and will get return buyers.
Tesla is actually betting the farm on self driving vehicles and really only exists as a manufacturer in order to have vehicles on the road collecting data for future self driving vehicle platforms. If that bet pays off, then Tesla will rule the world. If it does not, then Tesla will end up the Yugo of EVs and either get sold off to a major or collapse and disappear.
Even if Tesla solves self driving, it won’t matter much. Google & Cruze (owned by Chevy) both have many more miles tested and better performing systems.
Google being agnostic is the kicker. If Google solves self driving vehicles, they can license the technology to every automaker.
It's easy to build an expensive car. It's a lot more challenging to build cheap cars with a low margin. Toyota, Volkswagen Group and Ford know how to do just that.
Ford doesn't even make cars besides the Mustang and hasn't since the beginning of 2021.
I don't care about Tesla or EVs either way, but if someone buys an electric VW they have huge brass balls. For decades VWs have been notorious for their electrical gremlins. And now the whole car will be run by electricity and computers? No thanks.
Your lack of understanding (and that of the OP) is truly profound.
Unless, of course, your true intentions here are to simply bait Fat Hurts into wasting his time on this thread. In that case, who know? You may or may not succeed (up to the Fat dude).
It's Friday before a holiday weekend, so why not?
Tesla has a huge technological lead over the OEMs. Tesla is the only company who has been able to scale EV production enough to make a profit. And the profit per vehicle is higher than the others make from their gas cars.
Tesla and BYD are the only auto companies who make their own batteries. Plus, Tesla is buying up future battery supply, including raw materials.
The driving experience is far superior in a Tesla.
Tesla gives the most range for the price, because their EVs are more efficient.
Tesla has a huge software lead.
Tesla's supercharger network is by far the best.
Despite raising prices, Tesla's demand continues to grow and grow.
For those who say Tesla hasn't done anything new lately, see if you can drive the new Tesla Model S Plaid. I have, and its acceleration is unlike anything you can imagine. 0 to 60 in 2 seconds is just insane.
I could go on and on. But the theme that legacy auto will catch Tesla has been going on for years now. And Tesla's lead just keeps getting bigger.
Why would I waste my time? You will see reality unfold over the next few years, whether I explain it to you or not. And you will completely forget that you ever made such a ridiculous statement as you did here. I am happy to let you be happy in your ignorance.
I have always thought it would be the case that the toyotas, fords, gms, etc would take over and TESLA would shrink to a niche brand. I don't really understand how it's not the case, but a lot of smart people don't see it that way. I have something like a dozen shares of TSLA. It's my one real roll of the dice gamble in the stock market.
my gut says it's not a good play, but it's a low risk roll.
You should buy more stock while you can. Q2 results will be lousy, but as we get into Q3, I don't think you will see TSLA this low ever again.
Model Y is a golf cart with an iPad. I really don't get the hype. Have any of you Tesla bulls sat in the backseat? It's terrible. It almost hurts to sit back there. I have no idea why anyone would pay 67k+ for this crappy car.
We have an ID4 on order. After tax incentives it's nearly half the price and 10x more comfortable. I don't care about the software. It's a car, not a laptop.
The back seat in the Model 3 isn't so great, but in the Model Y it's really nice.
No. This is actually correct. While Tesla currently has about a 20-25% market share for EVs, SAIC-GM (joint venture between GM and Chinese EV maker) is catching up very quickly. It is selling lots of mini EVs that are hugely popular in China and are very cheap (starting at around $4,500 for a bare bones EV). These EVs could take over the market in Europe where people are already used to driving tiny diesels in cities due to extremely high gas prices and limited parking. These vehicles should be popular in the US, but we are dummies and will keep driving F250 diesels from our 4,000 sq ft McMansion in the sprawl suburbs 35 miles to a cubicle job in the city. Maybe a few more years of $5+ a gallon and things will change in the US.
On the other hand, I don't see the other majors moving very quickly on EVs. Most of the EVs that are in the pipeline are SUVs that cost $50k+. And the current US charging infrastructure is not ready for a huge increase in EVs, which puts a cap on near term market growth. And as much as people like to bash on Tesla, they do have very strong owner loyalty and will get return buyers.
Tesla is actually betting the farm on self driving vehicles and really only exists as a manufacturer in order to have vehicles on the road collecting data for future self driving vehicle platforms. If that bet pays off, then Tesla will rule the world. If it does not, then Tesla will end up the Yugo of EVs and either get sold off to a major or collapse and disappear.
Even if Tesla solves self driving, it won’t matter much. Google & Cruze (owned by Chevy) both have many more miles tested and better performing systems.
Google being agnostic is the kicker. If Google solves self driving vehicles, they can license the technology to every automaker.
As long as the development of self-driving vehicles is proprietary and not a collective open source effort, the company that has the most data is more than likely going to be the winner. Every Tesla on the road is collecting real time data on road conditions, weather, vehicle performance, etc. that will be at the core of self driving vehicle capabilities. There are plenty of self driving systems out there and you can make arguments about whose is the best and most promising. But none of them are anywhere close to being ready for full 100% automated driving where you can just sit in the back seat and play video games. That kind of system will either need to have all the vehicles on the road linked together and talking to each other or will have to have tons of road data. Nuro has been testing self driving vehicle in my neighborhood for over two years. They have people driving around in Toyota Priuses going through every street over and over and over so they can collect all the driving data that will be used for the self driving system.
No. This is actually correct. While Tesla currently has about a 20-25% market share for EVs, SAIC-GM (joint venture between GM and Chinese EV maker) is catching up very quickly. It is selling lots of mini EVs that are hugely popular in China and are very cheap (starting at around $4,500 for a bare bones EV). These EVs could take over the market in Europe where people are already used to driving tiny diesels in cities due to extremely high gas prices and limited parking. These vehicles should be popular in the US, but we are dummies and will keep driving F250 diesels from our 4,000 sq ft McMansion in the sprawl suburbs 35 miles to a cubicle job in the city. Maybe a few more years of $5+ a gallon and things will change in the US.
On the other hand, I don't see the other majors moving very quickly on EVs. Most of the EVs that are in the pipeline are SUVs that cost $50k+. And the current US charging infrastructure is not ready for a huge increase in EVs, which puts a cap on near term market growth. And as much as people like to bash on Tesla, they do have very strong owner loyalty and will get return buyers.
Tesla is actually betting the farm on self driving vehicles and really only exists as a manufacturer in order to have vehicles on the road collecting data for future self driving vehicle platforms. If that bet pays off, then Tesla will rule the world. If it does not, then Tesla will end up the Yugo of EVs and either get sold off to a major or collapse and disappear.
Even if Tesla solves self driving, it won’t matter much. Google & Cruze (owned by Chevy) both have many more miles tested and better performing systems.
Google being agnostic is the kicker. If Google solves self driving vehicles, they can license the technology to every automaker.
Google (Waymo) and Cruze are different kinds of systems from Tesla. They can only operate in a pre-mapped area. And they aren't for sale to the public. Also, these cars cost upwards of 200K to build.
You can buy a self-driving Tesla and let it drive you almost anywhere in North America. It still has a ways to go but I'm in the beta program and I can see it getting better and better over time.
I think both systems will eventually work pretty well.
Your lack of understanding (and that of the OP) is truly profound.
No. This is actually correct. While Tesla currently has about a 20-25% market share for EVs, SAIC-GM (joint venture between GM and Chinese EV maker) is catching up very quickly. It is selling lots of mini EVs that are hugely popular in China and are very cheap (starting at around $4,500 for a bare bones EV). These EVs could take over the market in Europe where people are already used to driving tiny diesels in cities due to extremely high gas prices and limited parking. These vehicles should be popular in the US, but we are dummies and will keep driving F250 diesels from our 4,000 sq ft McMansion in the sprawl suburbs 35 miles to a cubicle job in the city. Maybe a few more years of $5+ a gallon and things will change in the US.
On the other hand, I don't see the other majors moving very quickly on EVs. Most of the EVs that are in the pipeline are SUVs that cost $50k+. And the current US charging infrastructure is not ready for a huge increase in EVs, which puts a cap on near term market growth. And as much as people like to bash on Tesla, they do have very strong owner loyalty and will get return buyers.
Tesla is actually betting the farm on self driving vehicles and really only exists as a manufacturer in order to have vehicles on the road collecting data for future self driving vehicle platforms. If that bet pays off, then Tesla will rule the world. If it does not, then Tesla will end up the Yugo of EVs and either get sold off to a major or collapse and disappear.
The mini EV you are talking about is not street legal in most industrialized nations. That's why you will never see them in the US and Europe. It lacks all the basic safety features.
But tiny cars will go electric in all nations just like every other auto market segment.
I have always thought it would be the case that the toyotas, fords, gms, etc would take over and TESLA would shrink to a niche brand. I don't really understand how it's not the case, but a lot of smart people don't see it that way. I have something like a dozen shares of TSLA. It's my one real roll of the dice gamble in the stock market.
my gut says it's not a good play, but it's a low risk roll.
That’s what I see happening — tesla becoming a market. That’s what they are now. I think once the big manufacturers start getting involved, they will quickly overtake Tesla. I’ve a few articles recently where others see the same thing happening.
The problem is that the big manufacturers don't know how to mass produce EVs at a profit. That will take several years if they ever get there at all. It will be very hard to fund EV development with shrinking ICE car sales.
Meanwhile, Tesla is ramping up faster and faster. They have two new factories and their two existing factories keep adding more capacity.
But none of them are anywhere close to being ready for full 100% automated driving where you can just sit in the back seat and play video games. That kind of system will either need to have all the vehicles on the road linked together and talking to each other or will have to have tons of road data.
Actually, Tesla's system does not rely on knowing the road at all. It uses GPS to know what route to take, but that's the extent of its knowledge of the road itself.
Every time it drives on a road or crosses an intersection, it's like it is the first time it has ever seen that road. It uses its cameras and neural network to figure out what to do.
That's the difference between Tesla's system and the others mentioned here. Those others use high def maps and lidar to know exactly where the driveable space is. They have to pre-map every road that they system will work on. And if the road changes due to construction or something else, the system won't work.
Tesla figures everything out on its own. That's why it can theoretically work on any road anywhere.
No. This is actually correct. While Tesla currently has about a 20-25% market share for EVs, SAIC-GM (joint venture between GM and Chinese EV maker) is catching up very quickly. It is selling lots of mini EVs that are hugely popular in China and are very cheap (starting at around $4,500 for a bare bones EV). These EVs could take over the market in Europe where people are already used to driving tiny diesels in cities due to extremely high gas prices and limited parking. These vehicles should be popular in the US, but we are dummies and will keep driving F250 diesels from our 4,000 sq ft McMansion in the sprawl suburbs 35 miles to a cubicle job in the city. Maybe a few more years of $5+ a gallon and things will change in the US.
On the other hand, I don't see the other majors moving very quickly on EVs. Most of the EVs that are in the pipeline are SUVs that cost $50k+. And the current US charging infrastructure is not ready for a huge increase in EVs, which puts a cap on near term market growth. And as much as people like to bash on Tesla, they do have very strong owner loyalty and will get return buyers.
Tesla is actually betting the farm on self driving vehicles and really only exists as a manufacturer in order to have vehicles on the road collecting data for future self driving vehicle platforms. If that bet pays off, then Tesla will rule the world. If it does not, then Tesla will end up the Yugo of EVs and either get sold off to a major or collapse and disappear.
Even if Tesla solves self driving, it won’t matter much. Google & Cruze (owned by Chevy) both have many more miles tested and better performing systems.
Google being agnostic is the kicker. If Google solves self driving vehicles, they can license the technology to every automaker.
A friend of mine has a Tesla with the self driving feature. At this point it doesn’t do much. He still has to have a hand on the wheel, has to look up, etc. If he gets something like three strikes he loses access to the software he actually paid extra for. I thought that was strange.
That’s what I see happening — tesla becoming a market. That’s what they are now. I think once the big manufacturers start getting involved, they will quickly overtake Tesla. I’ve a few articles recently where others see the same thing happening.
The problem is that the big manufacturers don't know how to mass produce EVs at a profit. That will take several years if they ever get there at all. It will be very hard to fund EV development with shrinking ICE car sales.
Meanwhile, Tesla is ramping up faster and faster. They have two new factories and their two existing factories keep adding more capacity.
I think most Experts now say manufacturers like GM, Ford and even VW will surpass Tesla’s EV sales in just a few years. Those companies don’t have to develop tech, they can buy it.
You can buy a self-driving Tesla and let it drive you almost anywhere in North America. It still has a ways to go but I'm in the beta program and I can see it getting better and better over time.
I think both systems will eventually work pretty well.
Sure, the SD mode will operate the car for you, but every now and then it'll also ram into an emergency vehicle on the side of the freeway at full speed too. Oops. Just a small glitch to be worked out while Tesla has American drivers behind the wheel in beta mode. IMO, it's a serious problem that they:
1) refer to it as self driving mode, which tacitly encourages the driver to pay little attention to the road, and
2) seem to beta test such potentially lethal technology on roads with limited controls.
The aviation community has a huge head start on automated operational technology with incredibly sophisticated auto pilots and navigational systems that are capable of both completely automated take-offs, flight phase management and landings, given the right equipment, training and supporting technologies. Still, aviation has not yet tackled the occasional yet deadly intersectional moments of technology failure and need for proper human intervention. Pilots become bored, inattentive, can lose their skills without constant refreshing, and/or can struggle to take over in those critical moments when a sensor and/or autopilot fails or takes actions the pilots don't expect or don't understand. Now, somebody tell me how all of those potential problems, but multiplied by 100, will be avoided with distracted, bored, terrible drivers on crowded roads.
Until every car on the road is automated and interacting together with no human intervention, there is no way it'll be safe with 'some' automation on the roads.
But none of them are anywhere close to being ready for full 100% automated driving where you can just sit in the back seat and play video games. That kind of system will either need to have all the vehicles on the road linked together and talking to each other or will have to have tons of road data.
Actually, Tesla's system does not rely on knowing the road at all. It uses GPS to know what route to take, but that's the extent of its knowledge of the road itself.
Every time it drives on a road or crosses an intersection, it's like it is the first time it has ever seen that road. It uses its cameras and neural network to figure out what to do.
That's the difference between Tesla's system and the others mentioned here. Those others use high def maps and lidar to know exactly where the driveable space is. They have to pre-map every road that they system will work on. And if the road changes due to construction or something else, the system won't work.
Tesla figures everything out on its own. That's why it can theoretically work on any road anywhere.
Tesla also uses a camera-only sensor suite and struggles mightily, and always will, in inclement weather and in some situations with unusual light effects. Huge mistake to take other technologies out of the mix IMO. No way in HELL would I deeply trust Tesla self driving at this point in time, and there is no reason to believe that they won't be eclipsed by other competitors in that technology space.
The problem is that the big manufacturers don't know how to mass produce EVs at a profit. That will take several years if they ever get there at all. It will be very hard to fund EV development with shrinking ICE car sales.
Meanwhile, Tesla is ramping up faster and faster. They have two new factories and their two existing factories keep adding more capacity.
I think most Experts now say manufacturers like GM, Ford and even VW will surpass Tesla’s EV sales in just a few years. Those companies don’t have to develop tech, they can buy it.
And they don’t have the high expense of creating a market or growing the infrastructure.