Here's what $400,000 buys you in different cities

Lame attempt at satirizing my threads.

My thesis on house prices is:

* The phenomenon of house prices in certain locales shooting up beyond what 98% of the local population can afford is a relatively recent phenomenon, less than a decade old, really. As such, it's not clear whether it's a lasting trend.

* The effects of remote work are not yet priced in to housing. Remote work completely destroys the concept of a city offering good job opportunities. Cities now have to offer something different in order to attract residents.

* It's folly to think that the same cities considered hot today will be hot a few years from now. Some cities which are already hot may get hotter while some considered hot today may totally crater. Listen to the recent interview with the Redfin CEO and what he says about his predictions for Seattle, Washington versus Vancouver, Canada.

When is Jamin going to be working remotely from Patpong along with all the other dirty expats?

Also, a "hot" location is largely the product of groupthink. Paradoxically, when prices go up enough for a location to gain a reputation as pricey, it attracts more people to live there, because it makes people feel more successful.

They will never allow him a visa for that long.

Santa Cruz. Mobile home (for 55+?), but pretty sweet location.

Image:photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/19fea4829a7...

When talented people congregate in a city, more companies decide to locate there. There’s a reason the most-valued American companies have headquarters and major offices that are concentrated in just a few cities. Do you think the next Google or Amazon will sprout up in Tulsa?

Young talented, geographically-mobile people will naturally go to where jobs and others like them already are. Why do you think college grads go from Princeton or Duke to NYC to work in finance or Stanford grads go to SF/South Bay to work in tech when they could move to Wyoming and rent a house for $1000 a month? Even if Morgan Stanley or Google went fully remote, people would want to live where other people like them are. “Remote work” (which will not be the standard in many high-paying industries outside of engineering rules) will not change this.

Call it “groupthink” if you like, but I’m happy to be surrounded by thousands of other Ivy League grads and other diverse, talented people and have a higher cost of living than being stuck in some third tier city.

And you assert that no one who lives in all these cities can actually afford the housing. Well, it’s funny that these places keep being purchased despite no one being able to afford them. Apparently someone has the money, it’s just not you, but I’m guessing you know that already. Look, I’m kicking myself for only buying one investment property last year in a market that has appreciated a ton, I would prefer that prices went down to what they were because I’d love to load up on a couple more in hindsight and seeing my zestimate up 110k since I bought it doesn’t mean anything.

The only semi-desirable city you picked was Austin, and that town is out of control crowded. Here’s where people actually want to live (not the Midwest, not where it’s too hot):

zillow.com

2193 Arapahoe St APT 16, Denver, CO 80205 | Zillow

Zillow, Inc.

Zestimate® Home Value: $403,500. 2193 Arapahoe St APT 16, Denver, CO is a condo home that contains 687 sq ft and was built in 1891. It contains 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom. The Zestimate for this house is $410,600, which has inc...

Link:www.zillow.com/homedetails/2193-Arapah...

Sure, companies may not "move" to Tulsa. What they already have done is set up offices in Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, for example, and will gradually shift more job openings to be "located" exclusively in any of those 3 locations. The truth is that there's a remote work option and they don't care whether their Charlotte office sits empty. All they care is that they can offer compensation packages "in" Charlotte which compensate half what they used to offer in the Bay Area or NYC. Eventually they'll shift the job openings to Ireland and pay a fourth the compensation.

Aside from this, there is the fact that today's Ivy League grad is way too lazy to walk and subway into Morgan Stanley's NYC skyscraper.

I'm like you, very against remote work as the norm, and in fact I'm typing this while on the bus into office. But realize our views are shared by less than 10% of white collar workers. We're losing this battle; remote work is winning out.

INCORRECT!

1) Marysville is a very nice community with a good school system. Good place to raise a family. Honda plant there.

2) Surprise, AZ is popular with 55 and older crowd due to several 55 and over communities and lots of health care facilities...also a climate that many prefer.

3) I don't want to live in Florida, but tons of people LOVE Florida...beach, fishing, warm weather, etc. Tamp is obviously close to all of that.

4) Murfreesboro, TN is another good place to raise a family. Close to Nashville, safe, inexpensive, mild/short winters.

Not sure you know what satire means. Was giving an alternative to your doom thread.

Tulsa actually has some very nice areas (you probably want to stay out of North Tulsa). Lots of trees and water.

zillow.com

6726 S 67th Ave E, Tulsa, OK 74133 | Zillow

Zillow, Inc.

Zestimate® Home Value: $413,000. 6726 S 67th Ave E, Tulsa, OK is a single family home that contains 2,489 sq ft and was built in 1966. It contains 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms.

Link:www.zillow.com/homedetails/6726-S-67th...

Garth Brooks had a nice place just outside of Tulsa:

tasteofcountry.com

PICS: See Inside the $3.2 Million Estate Used for 'Trisha's Southern Kitchen'

sterlingwit

Pictures of a home used to film 'Trisha's Southern Kitchen' show that only the best would do for the Food Network and Trisha Yearwood.

Link:tasteofcountry.com/garth-brooks-trisha...

It's a nice town. Not much in the way of nightlife, but it's clean and close to a bunch of reservoirs with good fishing. Decent running trails and mountain biking down at Turkey Mountain. Nice woodchip trails at Mohawk Park.

Jamin’s problem is that he tries to time markets instead of just finding a place at a reasonable price (to him). Instead, I think he wants to find the places that are desirable to him but ridiculously overpriced (to him), and point at them each week on these forums, and use hope as a strategy that they crash hard, so he can then feel he’s able to get something at his own assessment of the value.

You are discounting the entire concept of agglomeration economies. And yes, they still exist despite the pandemic. Also, some land is inherently more valuable because of location advantages, natural resources, etc.

When I first moved to the Bay Area in the early 1990s the cost to rent a house was a lot less than the monthly mortgage. That was certainly not the case in the Midwestern city in which I had previously lived. I can remember back in the 1970s people talking about how inflated CA real estate was. And if you compare the prices of different markets over time, the relationships between markets remains fairly stable over time, even thought there are short-term fluctuations in prices that reflect macro-level trends.

For example, compare state housing prices over time going back 70 years. There are a few like Alaska that jump around but for the most part expensive markets stay expensive and low cost housing markets stay cheap.

1950 most expensive states: Dist. of Columbia, Hawaii, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, California.
1950 least expensive states: Alaska, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Maine

1980 most expensive states: Hawaii, California, Alaska, Dist. of Columbia, Nevada, Connecticut.
1980 least expensive states: Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, South Carolina, Oklahoma.

2000 most expensive states: Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Washington, Connecticut.
2000 least expensive states: Oklahoma, Mississippi, Arkansas, West Virginia, N and S Dakota.

The most/least expensive markets in 2000 are pretty much the same as today. If you looked at historical prices by city/market I'm guessing the pattern would be even stronger.

Affordable for 1%ers like you, maybe.

It's actually crazy that the Tampa house you found is now $400K -- that's a horrible location. $400K in the city would get you about halfway to buying a house.

But agree with your general point that there are still places to buy out there...

tampabay.com

Tampa Bay leads in rising home prices, index finds

For years, Phoenix was leading the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. Not anymore.

Link:www.tampabay.com/news/real-estate/2022...

Parts of North Dakota around Williston had some of the most expensive real estate in the country back in 2009 (during the housing crash and the fracking boom when the rest of the country was unemployed).

1.) ok, I will concede that I don’t know anything about Marysville so you may have a point there, though, generally people don’t want to live in OH if they don’t have to. Including me.

2.) Again, fair enough, but you are talking about a retirement community, and, there again, most people need another option in the summer. Snowbirds as it were. It’s going to be 115 there this weekend. No thanks.

3.) I don’t want to live in FL either. Plus, as another poster pointed out, to live in a good area of Tampa will require twice as much.

4.) Nashville sucks. A mix of honky tonk red necks and a downtown that smells like sewage and weed, like most liberal run cities.

Austin is the only one you nailed. The point is, it’s really hard to find affordable housing in a really desirable area. Not just the beach, etc. Where I live, the median home price has doubled from about $400,000 to $800,000 in the last five years. That $800,000 will merely get you a postage stamp lawn and neighbors right on top of you.

Must be infuriating a run down house in a big city is worth that much. I’ve seen houses like this in flyover country. Usually they can be had for under 10-15K depending on the size of the property.