Genuinely curious why you’d think not? She seems to have excelled for years now.
Why I think not? I've been in the sport over 25 years and have seen better talents not sniff Gold at the Olympics. Don't get me wrong, she's great and amazing and I'm a big fan. You also need to understand what it takes physiologically to win Olympic Gold. Basically, we need to take 12-second 100m speed and move them up to the 10,000m
Yeah I feel you here. With girls (in running at least, swimming different story) you simply can not predict future success when they are still just 15 unless they are already world-class.
With boys you may be able to on rare occasions. For instance looking at the age group records for 15 year olds or younger we see a few Olympic Gold medalists on the list.
Age 7-12 PV: Armand Duplantis (did he not compete from ages 13-15? surely he'd have them)
Age 12 200m: 22.54 -3.4w! Shaun Crawford
Age 14 400m: 46.96 Kirani James 400h: 55.63 Sydney McLaughlin 1500m: 3:48.37 Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Age 15 200m: 20.58 Usain Bolt 400h: 55.28 Sydney McLaughlin 1500m: 3:42.44 Jakob Ingebrigtsen
Pretty select list there. May have missed someone in the field events, but think I got them all. Raevyn Rogers was close with 800m age group records for 12 & 13 yr olds, but she "only" managed a bronze in the Olympics.
They really, really want that mile record. Ok fine. Have it. So the girl can start to run something else.
She’s run the 200 once, the 800 four times, the 3200 twice and the 4x400 three times while running the mile/1600 four times. Is there another event you’re hoping she runs?
They really, really want that mile record. Ok fine. Have it. So the girl can start to run something else.
She’s run the 200 once, the 800 four times, the 3200 twice and the 4x400 three times while running the mile/1600 four times. Is there another event you’re hoping she runs?
Sorry, missed the 400 twice. Maybe she could throw the disc or pop a vault?
A better comparison is Mary Decker who ran 2:02 and 4:40 at the same age. Mary ended up with a 1:56 PR and don't think Sadie quite has that speed but we will see.
Looked around a bit for Mary's 400 times in HS but couldn't find anything. Any ideas? Or even when she was a pro would be interested to know if she ever threw down any solid 4x4 splits.
I do not have Mary Decker's data, but for curiosity, I looked up Mary Cain's freshman data for high school:
4:17.84 - 1500 meters - NY State Outdoor Champ ... (converts to roughly a 4:38 mile time) 4:41.8 - 1600 meter DMR relay split - Green Dragon Relays 2:03.74 - 800 meter relay split - NB Outdoor Nationals 0:55.5h - 400 meters - Fulton Invite
With respect to 400 meters, that was Mary Cain's best ever 400 meter race ... she said was able to do workout 400 repeats near that time when training as a pro, but she never faster.
Wth are you talking about? When have I predicted doom for anyone? It is true that longevity in girls distance running is difficult, injuries are frequent. Hence I do not pretend to have any clue about how a runner will progress. Nor am I a fan of runners being overtrained at a young age. But I have never once bought into the burnout, magic talent clock argument regarding high school runners or that anything but a steady linear progression signals permanent regression. Its a crapshoot.
I believe this will be her 16th attempt at this distance, a function of this being a standard distance in the state. Could be wrong. She was definitely going for it last time, but went out too hard. I say she gets it here. Good luck.
My point is I hope people know what they are doing because virtually every top distance runner coming out of high school the past few years has been injured and this seems like over racing for a short term goal.
Amazing how frequently we have heard that over the years. A broken clock is right twice a day, so maybe it will happen. But the real challenge in this sport is longevity.
The silliest thing you can do is make any claim about a female high school distance runner's potential. In this case that potential will be contingent on her ability to tolerate greater mpw
The curse moves on to the next contender.
No. That every time you start hyping a runner it never ends well.
And? As I said, injuries are fequent and longevity is a challenge, but nothing is written in stone. Shocking. Who knew? LOL. Btw the last two were a joke regarding someone's prediction track record. I will not be bothering with anything you wrote in the past. I'm sure it is insightful.
Sadie Engelhardt ran a solo 2:05.66, winning by 6 seconds.
At Engelhardt's current age, Athing Mu's pr was 2:06.88, in a race she won by 16 seconds!
Obviously Mu has WAY more raw speed, so point here isn't that Sadie will eclipse Mu in the 800. That's not gonna happen. But with PRs in the 1600/3200/3mi-xc (most common distances in CA where she runs majority of races) of 4:34/10:00/15:59 and now a 2:05 800 it's safe to say she still has a lot of upside in the distance events.
Engelhardt doesn't have quite the graceful stride of Mu (who other than Rudisha does though?) but it's very clean.
Can't really bet on freshman girls' future success for reasons I think most of us understand and don't need to talk about, but if I had to...
I don’t get exited about freshman girls times anymore. When sophomore year comes and their bodies change will see if she continues to run great.
I hope she is one of the that doesn’t get devistated by her body changing.
Having seen Englehardt run in person at the AMOC, she is indeed a physical talent. My concern is that she will be a bit "used and abused" via overracing - she tripled in a dual meet the week of MOC. Hopefully she gets good coaching, stays healthy and continues to enjoy running.
Having seen Englehardt run in person at the AMOC, she is indeed a physical talent. My concern is that she will be a bit "used and abused" via overracing - she tripled in a dual meet the week of MOC. Hopefully she gets good coaching, stays healthy and continues to enjoy running.
interestingly she lives near NPHS... would she dare to transfer?
Sadie seems to be very physically mature and robust for such a superlative freshman girl runner. This is maybe somewhat of a double-edged sword where she may be more injury-resistant throughout high school (she already shows great durability in the face of a heavy race load), but may not have the high top performance end of a runner like Natalie Cook, who has to be super careful about injuries, but seems to have incredible potential as she matures further in the sport. In this regard, I am struck at the career contrasts of these particular two runners.
Mary ran a couple of 55s at age 16, but they were at small meets and usually after she ran the 800 or the mile. In a serious 400m, I am pretty sure she could have run 54x at that age.
Looked around a bit for Mary's 400 times in HS but couldn't find anything. Any ideas? Or even when she was a pro would be interested to know if she ever threw down any solid 4x4 splits.
I do not have Mary Decker's data, but for curiosity, I looked up Mary Cain's freshman data for high school:
4:17.84 - 1500 meters - NY State Outdoor Champ ... (converts to roughly a 4:38 mile time) 4:41.8 - 1600 meter DMR relay split - Green Dragon Relays 2:03.74 - 800 meter relay split - NB Outdoor Nationals 0:55.5h - 400 meters - Fulton Invite
With respect to 400 meters, that was Mary Cain's best ever 400 meter race ... she said was able to do workout 400 repeats near that time when training as a pro, but she never faster.
re: "she said was able to do workout 400 repeats near that time when training as a pro"
False! I really don't have much faith in anything Mary Cain says. World class 800m runners don't do their intervals anywhere near 55s.
I do not have Mary Decker's data, but for curiosity, I looked up Mary Cain's freshman data for high school:
4:17.84 - 1500 meters - NY State Outdoor Champ ... (converts to roughly a 4:38 mile time) 4:41.8 - 1600 meter DMR relay split - Green Dragon Relays 2:03.74 - 800 meter relay split - NB Outdoor Nationals 0:55.5h - 400 meters - Fulton Invite
With respect to 400 meters, that was Mary Cain's best ever 400 meter race ... she said was able to do workout 400 repeats near that time when training as a pro, but she never faster.
re: "she said was able to do workout 400 repeats near that time when training as a pro"
False! I really don't have much faith in anything Mary Cain says. World class 800m runners don't do their intervals anywhere near 55s.
I have no idea how fast Mary was running her intervals at that time, but what I remember from the interview summary when she was asked about her 400 meter best was that she had never run faster than her high school freshman time of 55 seconds (either in a race or in any interval during training).
For some reason, I find that an interesting stat for somebody who had run 1:59.51 (800m), 4:24.11 (mile), and 2:35.80 (1000m) ... I suspect she never tried.
Engelhardt's long term future is in the mile or equivalent. the fact that she can run 2:05 in the half just indicates what an exceptional athlete she is that she can gut out a lightening fast time in an event thats probably just short of center of her ideal distance (she can also run a 58 second quarter by the way).
To be a world class 1500 runner you only need to be able to run around 2 flat in the 800. (Purrier and Houlihan have PRs in the 800 of approximately 1:59.9.)
I think Engelhardt will be able to run a 2 flat 800 eventually. Maybe not in high school though. She'll never be a 800 specialist, mostly likely 1500, but possibly 5k.
just noticed Sadie is entered in the inv mile at arcadia. seems kinda strange to me considering Arcadia is all about the 3200.
Arcadia isn't about just the 3200, although it may seem like it this year because of all the hype around the Newbury Park boys. There are lots of runners who will be running fast times in other events.
Genuinely curious why you’d think not? She seems to have excelled for years now.
You also need to understand what it takes physiologically to win Olympic Gold. Basically, we need to take 12-second 100m speed and move them up to the 10,000m
That's an interesting way of putting it. Yes, people who win the Olympics are real freaks of nature. Like Sifan Hassan, who is a 1:56 / 29:06 runner which almost seems impossible.