39-41 range. Source: I ran 40:30 before a 3:12 marathon
39-41 range. Source: I ran 40:30 before a 3:12 marathon
41 minutes.
10 k times are almost completely irrelevant to "predicting" a marathon time, especially your first marathon. Go out and do a 20 mile training run in under 2:30 and you can be pretty sure you're ready for somewhere around 3:15, assuming a fairly flat course, good weather, etc. on race day.
Take a look at fivethirtyeight's calculator. Does a good job factoring in your training level for a more reasonable estimate than daniels/mcmillan/etc...
My former coach:
With very good endurance you need underdistance performance of 41:15 min for 3:15 h.
It is impossible to run 3:15 h if the 10 km is 43 min or slower.
Stefan_2_33 wrote:
feefeefoofoo wrote:
A lot of calculators say 42:15-42:30, but those usually overestimate people's abilities in the marathon. I'd say sub 41
I agree, the calculators often assume an optimal marathon performance, but this requires a very strong aerobic base. There is a simple rule from the 70s which IMO is still valid for the average runner:
10k 30:00 -> Marathon 2:20
10k 32:00 -> Marathon 2:30
10k 34:00 -> Marathon 2:40
10k 36:00 -> Marathon 2:50
10k 38:00 -> Marathon 3:00
10k 40:00 -> Marathon 3:10 and so on....
Good luck!
Hahaha
My one Marathon attempt came about 6 weeks after a 34 minute 10k. I was aiming for 2:40 but crashed and burned hard with a 3:01 and a trip to the medical tent.
Unless you have significant experience with the marathon, or have done lots of long runs and long tempo runs, the 10k is almost useless as a predictor
Have fun with the 10k and do t worry too much about it