Personally, dropping my goal by ~5 minutes based on this weather. Not ideal but this is still much cooler than what Chicago was during the summer.
spinozza wrote:
Which corral are you starting in? I have the same plan as you except I wasn’t going to try and up the pace until 13.1 and/or at 16-17 mi.
Same plan as you. I'll be starting in Corral B though and will stick with the 3 hour pacers for the first half I think.
Lift Run Play Chess wrote:
Personally, dropping my goal by ~5 minutes based on this weather. Not ideal but this is still much cooler than what Chicago was during the summer.
spinozza wrote:
Which corral are you starting in? I have the same plan as you except I wasn’t going to try and up the pace until 13.1 and/or at 16-17 mi.
Same plan as you. I'll be starting in Corral B though and will stick with the 3 hour pacers for the first half I think.
nice excuse. For a race that is routinely on a day that climbs into the 70's, even climbing into the 80's enough years to warrant caution, and rarely great weather, you're adjusting your goal? It's probably gonna be wet and rainy. You'll be fine. You just didn't train hard enough and you're already making excuses. Gotta toughen up. If you were really worried about race day weather, you wouldn't run Chicago. It's always a crapshoot.
Well, I mean someone always has to be THIS guy 🤷🏻♂️
I'd think the front people in the ball park of 2:10 would want to slow down about a minute on the first half marathon. People running around 3 hours maybe a few minutes slower on the first half marathon. Then the slowest people 4-6 hours will be out there the longest and in the warmest weather, RIP to them.
I'm adjusting my goal from 2:32-2:35 to 2:34-2:36.
I trained all summer in this shiit. Time to pay dividends.
Humidity looks to be low in the morning hours compared to the steady 100% days most of us have been dealing with all Summer. If it stays in the low 60s until 10ish, I suspect there will not be a need for major time adjustments for most people.
Last time I ran Chicago it was 75 degrees and full sun. I cramped up badly and had a horrible race, then vowed to never run it again. 3 months later I ran Baton Rouge and was 16 minutes faster, and the weather was a beautiful 45 degrees.
The moral is -- Chicago is known as a hot race (except for 2009), so adjust your expectations accordingly and pick a back-up race. This is why everyone runs Indy now.
MRMRMRMR wrote:
Last time I ran Chicago it was 75 degrees and full sun. I cramped up badly and had a horrible race, then vowed to never run it again. 3 months later I ran Baton Rouge and was 16 minutes faster, and the weather was a beautiful 45 degrees.
The moral is -- Chicago is known as a hot race (except for 2009), so adjust your expectations accordingly and pick a back-up race. This is why everyone runs Indy now.
2018 was rainy, windy and rather fresh (if not outright cold). But with rain and wind I felt pretty frozen when I crossed that finish line.
Still don't get this "toughen up" attitude. You can't just will yourself to an amazing marathon time in bad conditions. As of right now, Sunday's weather is approaching all-time temperature highs. Looks like it might be upper 60s at the start. Isn't cooling down much Saturday into Sunday. Good news is that there isn't extreme humidity. A lot of people prolly did long runs in the same temps but with more humidity all summer. Dew point should be in the low-60s for the race. That's not horrible. Maybe a 2-3% time adjustment. It should actually be better than in 2018 when it was low 60s but full humidity. My advice would be to back off 10s/mile from your goal pace on a perfect day through halfway. If that feels amazing then slowly squeeze out some more time in the back half. One sure fire way to ruin your marathon is to try to be tough and go out at goal pace. Most will be able to handle it for 13.1 in these conditions, but then come back 10 minutes slower. A 2:40 should be a 2:43-45. Pace it the same way you would on a good day and you probably run 2:50+. Good day to think about place instead of time. A smart race could land you pretty high up.
No chance Hall breaks that record without perfect conditions.
runningchick wrote:
MRMRMRMR wrote:
Last time I ran Chicago it was 75 degrees and full sun. I cramped up badly and had a horrible race, then vowed to never run it again. 3 months later I ran Baton Rouge and was 16 minutes faster, and the weather was a beautiful 45 degrees.
The moral is -- Chicago is known as a hot race (except for 2009), so adjust your expectations accordingly and pick a back-up race. This is why everyone runs Indy now.
2018 was rainy, windy and rather fresh (if not outright cold). But with rain and wind I felt pretty frozen when I crossed that finish line.
And 2019 was 32 at the start and settled into a perfect ~40 for most of the race...so...yeah.
This is why I’m running Indy for my first marathon in 5 years. Chances of okay to bad weather is much lower.
Listen to what your heart rate monitor is telling you early in the race. You’ll feel great despite the heat in the first 10k and if you’re not careful this will come back to haunt you at halfway onwards.
My projections based on my training data in optimal conditions:
2:20:58 at 50F with 50% Humidity (coming from 5400ft to 600ft)
with Weather at 71F with 78% Humidity:
2:24:17
This is factoring in all recent training temperature, humidity, and elevation.
The slower your projection the more you should dial it back, but the impact of the heat and humidity (plus now forecasted wind) is very very real.
not a big deal wrote:
Chicago weather is looking tough. High dew point. Nearly 70 at the start. How much time adjustment do you think will be needed?
3-4 minutes.
I hate sounding left-wing but they are right on one thing: Climate change is real, and we are losing our springs and falls.
erik wrote:
My goal is sub 3:00 and my workouts seem to indicate I could do that in good conditions, maybe faster.
Since I think I have some room to spare, my plan is to just religiously keep to like 2:59:40 pace and try not to bank any extra time even if I feel good. I wouldn't be that aggressive if I didn't think I had some margin of error.
I will then try to give an honest self-assessment 5 miles and 10 miles in as to whether I should back off and readjust my goals. Worst thing that happens is a painful last hour. At this point I just want a marathon in the books after the last two years of Covid.
I'm personally somewhat reassured by the fact that I did all my long runs in hotter weather. This is the first season where I caved and carried a water bottle on the long runs (on a little backpack type thing which judge fits a single water bottle). I always hated carrying anything running, but I soon realized how much proper hydration made those hot long runs more bearable, especially as I get older. Stopping at a water fountain every so often was inadequate to that task. I have no plans to carry a water bottle, but just to try to consume as much water as I can to mimic the long runs.
Good luck everyone.
Good plan that I'll use in Columbus in a few weeks! Like you, I'm just happy to have a Marathon. My goal is a lot more modest than yours lol (3:14:59).
MRMRMRMR wrote:
Last time I ran Chicago it was 75 degrees and full sun. I cramped up badly and had a horrible race, then vowed to never run it again. 3 months later I ran Baton Rouge and was 16 minutes faster, and the weather was a beautiful 45 degrees.
The moral is -- Chicago is known as a hot race (except for 2009), so adjust your expectations accordingly and pick a back-up race. This is why everyone runs Indy now.
Good point to keep in mind for all our fall races. Cbus '17 was 68-72'F at the start (7:30 a.m.). I've never run Indy but I'll keep that in mind if Cbus '21 doesn't go well.
Do a forum search for Chicago marathon weather. You'll probably find you need to start off conservative, but you should still PR. Weather does not affect the well trained, so a PR is expected, but expect to run 3-6min slower if you are well trained and more if you are a hobby jogger running slower than 2:15 for men and 2:25 for women.
Good Luck!
youre exaggerating wrote:
62 is not a high dewpoint. It will be warm( for a marathon) but the weather is as expected. They have water. Use it.
Bullsh*t. That's a horrible dewpoint for marathon running. No CRs or ARs for the elites, and few PRs for the masses in those conditions.
Kempainen92 wrote:
youre exaggerating wrote:
62 is not a high dewpoint. It will be warm( for a marathon) but the weather is as expected. They have water. Use it.
Bullsh*t. That's a horrible dewpoint for marathon running. No CRs or ARs for the elites, and few PRs for the masses in those conditions.
Agree. A 60+ dewpoint means you gotta make a 2-3% adjustment. 10-15s/mile for most. That is a bad dewpoint and takes going after whatever you trained for off the table. Go out without an adjustment & you'll likely see a huge positive split. Most of us are amateur runners on here. We grind out marathon training blocks and want to go after PBs. Weather like this just dampens the mood a bit.