How long would it take me to drop 6 minutes off my 5K time?

Hah! Except you said „if my old butt can do that, you can knock 6 min off your 5k.“ Sure, it‘s possible, but your statement indicates he will be able to because you did something. And obviously you think that‘s pretty special or you wouldn‘t have brought it up and compared it to being relatively harder than going from 22 -> 16. And no one in their right mind will say making that six min jump in a year isn‘t insanely impressive.

Go find another thread to brag on bro.

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

You raise a bigger issue about the how much training can improve anyone. I ran my first ever 5k just before starting freshman year in high school on no training. Four years later as a senior after probably 2,000 training miles, I had improved exactly 4 minutes. I'd be interested to hear about the experience of others. Presumably, if at age 14 you can run a 5k in 22 minutes on no training, you'll never run under 16 minutes, certainly by your senior year, maybe ever. But open to hearing the thoughts of others.

^ This +1

I ran my first 5K just shy of my 13th birthday off nothing but soccer training and breakdancing (was the 1980's).

Ran 23:37.

Decided to give the Xcountry team a shot. Went well at first and after a winter building up to 50 miles a week ran my second 5K in April.

23:12

Still I stuck with it and logged over 5,000 miles over High School but the closest I ever got to breaking 23 was 23:05.

I've settled for hobby jogger status since then and logged 2000 miles a year every year since 1987. Now I'm 53 and can still run a 28 minute 5K on a good day, which funnily enough age grades to 23 minutes.

In other words, over 40 years and over 10,000 miles logged, I improved my 5K time by 32 seconds.

I believe 16 minutes is pie in the sky, but if you avoid injuries over the next decade you might break sub 20.

Wow. I'd be grumpy about that too. Certainly there are tons of different experiences. Often we hear tales of say, a young Galen Rupp, or a young Molly Seidel. Their first race on no training they beat everyone in their junior high, then add the right training over the course of ten years and they beat all of America. My guess is a 13 year old Galen on limited training easily ran well under 20.

Easy consistent mileage, tapering, speed work at appropriate times, cross training to avoid injury, AVOIDING OVERTRAINING, all mean a lot more the faster you get. The average guy who starts out at your level, unless you’ve built a huge engine riding bicycle, should be able to attain 16.

I ran distance for all of grade 7-12 and my most competitive times now are sprints. Even compared to my 800/1600/5k PRs. You have NO idea what you’re capable of until you F-ing work for it

Gugufhcjchffhf wrote:

What a load of rubbish being spouted on this forum.

16 minutes is not special. Of course the kid can run a 16 minute 5k with proper training. At 32 I started running and reached 18 fairly quickly without any speed work and everything at 8 or 9 minute pace. I see plenty of 30-40 year old dads on strava who can run 15-17.

As for the user saying they ran 2000 training miles over 4 years, just lmao. I've done more than 2000 miles in 6 months as part of marathon training. That's nothing.

+1

4:20 for a high school boy is not fast. It’s just not fast. By extension, a 14:49 5k (4:20 equivalent) is not fast. It's just not fast.

You won't know until you try. I ran 24min in my first cross race and by the end of my freshman cross season ran 18:56. I ended up running 1:53, 3:55 and 4:12 in the 800, 1500 and mile in college and then 2:32 in the marathon as an old man with kids.

My son just joined cross country and ran a similar time to me in his first race. He's never run before, doesn't play soccer, baseball, lacrosse, tennis, or any other aerobic sport. So that's off literally no aerobic exercise for 14 years and then 3 weeks of "training". He'll be fine if he sticks with it and wants to be good. His first race off nothing means nothing.

Same goes for you.

It is entirely dependent on talent level. Short answer is no, it probably won't happen

What other people are able to do off "0 training" is irrelevant. To some people "0 training means they haven't been running, but they are physically fit and have been active, playing sports like soccer and basketball. To some people "0 training" means they are 100 pounds over weight and barely ever get off the couch

Has anyone broken it to the OP that if he needs $$$, he needs to drop more like 7, or 7.5 min?

No walkon donkey running 16 is getting a dime. Or even a uni.

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

You raise a bigger issue about the how much training can improve anyone. I ran my first ever 5k just before starting freshman year in high school on no training. Four years later as a senior after probably 2,000 training miles, I had improved exactly 4 minutes. I'd be interested to hear about the experience of others. Presumably, if at age 14 you can run a 5k in 22 minutes on no training, you'll never run under 16 minutes, certainly by your senior year, maybe ever. But open to hearing the thoughts of others.

My no training 5k was close to 30 mins I think. I’ve only run 2 5k races while coming back from injury so I’ve never run sub 16, but I’ve split 16:05 or so during a 10k.

nicholaspohla wrote:

I just started training for xc/track and ran a 22 minute 5K as a trial run. I'm willing to train my butt off for the next year or 2 to get my time down to 16 minutes. I'm a freshman trying to walk onto my school's XC team cause my dad lost his job last year cause of the pandemic and I feel really bad putting my parents in a position where they're struggling financially if I can do something about it. How long do you think it will take me if I train in the morning and have weight room in the afternoons along with double runs on some days training 6-7 days a week? Walk on tryouts are in about 10-11 months. Could I get it down by then?

It took me exactly 2 years of hard training (6 months of which was injury) to go from a 20:35 5k to a 16:31 5k

Kobbs Hessler wrote:

You raise a bigger issue about the how much training can improve anyone. I ran my first ever 5k just before starting freshman year in high school on no training. Four years later as a senior after probably 2,000 training miles, I had improved exactly 4 minutes. I'd be interested to hear about the experience of others. Presumably, if at age 14 you can run a 5k in 22 minutes on no training, you'll never run under 16 minutes, certainly by your senior year, maybe ever. But open to hearing the thoughts of others.

Some people here appear to be ridiculously non-responsive to training.

I'm not too familiar with the progressions of High School runners starting from scratch, but I know that older runners who start in their 30's or 40's almost inevitably improve their 5K times by at least 6 minutes within a couple of years just by running regularly.

And they are fighting aging not being helped by it (ie physically maturing).

I would guess that at least 70% of 14 year olds who run their first 5K in 22 minutes with no training would get to 16 minutes in 2 years with consistent training and no injuries.

Everyone is so different, but I think your experience is really unusual. Increasing mileage should make you faster, even without speed work or anything else. I didn’t start running until age 35, and my 5K improved about 5 minutes in 1-2 years. I prefer longer distances, but I can podium an age group here and there and I’m very pedestrian and not goal-oriented at the moment, with a PR this year of 26:12 at 48 (F).

Both of my kids started running in high school, both improved their times by more than 4 minutes in their first year and both were fit non-runners before starting XC. My son started at 15 yrs old and had a 17:23 PR in 2 years. He hasn’t raced since before COVID, but I’d guess he’s faster now (freshman in college using running for fitness and stress relief).

My daughter has been running 14 or 15 months (she’s a sophomore) and she just PRed at 21:04 and may break that this week.

They have goals in other areas and use their XC season to train for spring sports. But they improve by putting in the miles.

I can’t imagine how 50 miles per week wouldn’t make anyone faster. It just seems strange. I think a good coach could get your times down at any age, if that is a goal. Both my kids’ teams have won state repeatedly over the past several years, so their coaching is excellent.

22min to sub 16 in one year:

Talent 99.9%+ : Go for it. You'll break 16 by running 30 mpw and doing the occasional tempo / workout at the track. No biggie.

Talent 99-99.9: More than doable, but not easy. You'll have to run 40+mpw, include long runs, tempo runs, and intervals. But sub 16 should come naturally enough if you put in the consistent work within the year.

Talent 95-99: Barely possible. Build up to 60-70mpw and pray you don't get injured or burnt out. You'll have to cut razor thin edges in training and push yourself both mentally and physically to even get a chance to run sub 16 on the right day.

Talent < 95%: Not possible.

If the goal is 16:xx and/or you have 2 years, then shift all the brackets down one and add 80-95% for the bottom one.

My first 5k ever after some very minor training was 24:10, it took me about 6 months to get down to 20:04 and about 18 months to get down to my PB of 19:17, so I took about 5 minutes off in a year and a half, as others have said it's different for different people and a lot depends on how trained you are to start with, if you start overweight with 0 training you can obviously make bigger gains than someone with no weight to lose and some base from light training and/or other sports.

I'd guess with you being as young as you are you should be able to make some big gains, it's impossible to know where your ceiling is till you try though.

Gugufhcjchffhf wrote:

What a load of rubbish being spouted on this forum.

16 minutes is not special. Of course the kid can run a 16 minute 5k with proper training. At 32 I started running and reached 18 fairly quickly without any speed work and everything at 8 or 9 minute pace. I see plenty of 30-40 year old dads on strava who can run 15-17.

As for the user saying they ran 2000 training miles over 4 years, just lmao. I've done more than 2000 miles in 6 months as part of marathon training. That's nothing.

Agree. I see plenty of times that people start running and some quickly run impressingly fast and others don't. Genetics and previous training play a role; at what level are you now and at what genetically capable level are you able to get with the right training over enough time. If you have the genetics for a large VO2 max and a good running economy (which is more trainable) you can go far, quickly. None could know and basically I would just do it and not think you have any limit. THe only limit you have is how much training how quickly. It takes some time to digest milage, especially when still growing.

So just go for it, but take care to progress steadily in milage and intensity to not burn out or injure yourself.

I think Jakob Ingebrigtsen is a guiding star here in doing this sustainable. His training has been a lot, but ALWAYS the sustainable steady work that builds basic capability and not short term performance. He has been doing steady interval work around the 2h-1h-30min-15min race pace, but always with a controlled intensity and the faster the shorter rep length to get the most volume at a relatively fast pace, but with a lower need of recovery. This is then combined with easy running. Of course he has done some 100 and 200m sprints, and have a weekly 20x30s hill workout which is harder and more anaerobic, but the main point is that very hard and long intervals at 1500, 3000 or 5000 pace is not part of the basic training. They don't use no pain no gain, but think steady and sustainable controlled training work for steady and long-term development. That is for the base training and of course in limited amounts when trying to peak for a race, hard efforts are needed and are effective.

For you it means that training is NOT about max efforts and very hard workouts, but about a controlled and thought through whole.

I started running seriously in 2011, 5k like you in that 21-22 range. Ran 16:40 in the summer of 2013. ~2.5 years later. The time fell off pretty quickly to 6:00 pace. Harder to make gains after that. I was mostly training for half marathons and marathons so the mileage/strength stuff was on point. I never really got much faster over 5k (never broke 16). I've also never really spent an extended time trying to get better at the 5k. Did 16:15 in a road race a couple years ago. Ran 16:0x on the roads for a time trial during the pandemic. I don't think I could ever run a ton faster than 15:50s even with my life devoted to the distance.

I think this is well doable. I came down from 22:30 to 15:30 in 15 months. Averaged 38 miles per week during this time.

It may be possible for you to do this over time. Some of this will depend on your base talent and your muscle composition. You've gotta be patient though.

This kind of jump will generally require a SMART training plan, sufficient cross training, and form drills. Do you have an experienced school coach that can assist you?

Hitting this goal will take some time. Probably a few years. (Perhaps you're extremely talented and have a very underdeveloped aerobic system and can achieve this goal after six months of consistent training. For most, it tends to take a few years to see the type of progress you're seeking.)

GRADUALLY increase your weekly mileage. Seek your coach's input here. Allow your legs to GRADUALLY adjust to the increased stress. There's a fairly decent probability that you will fall into an injury cycle that will destroy your chances of hitting your goals if you're too aggressive. You've absolutely got to be patient. If you feel an injury coming on, PULL BACK. Some people can run marathons everyday and not get injured. 99.5% of people are not that durable. Listen to your body and don't overexert.

-Your body will gradually find its most efficient running economy as you train. It doesn't happen overnight. Don't force it.

-Consider doing strides after easy runs. They can help with turnover.

-Lean some running form drills. Spending 10-15 minutes a few times a week performing running drills will almost certainly benefit you.

-Learn rhythmic breathing.

-Try to follow the 80% rule (80% of your running should be at an easy conversational pace, and 20% should be moderate to difficult). Listen to your coach.

-Throw some hills into your training, if you can.

-Find a form of cross training that you enjoy that isn't overly taxing on your body. Any type of physical activity can be helpful: cycling, swimming, basketball, tennis, etc. etc.

Best of luck. Have fun with the process. There will be set backs. You won't run a PR every race. You may suffer injury set backs. You also probably won't stick with it if you don't enjoy it.

It's possible to get down to 16 minutes, but definitely not in one, maybe in two, but 3 or 4 is more likely. Since you said you are in college and want to do it for finances, it's. not worth it because in 3 or 4 years you are basically done with school and any possible loans will presumably be on you by then. You will jump from 22 minutes off no training to 20 minutes probably pretty quick off little bit of training, at least that's what happened to me. But once you break 19 or so it'll just get harder and more time. Genetics and previous fitness is probably a factor of course. My first 5k junior year of hs was 22:37, and ended hs an 18 minute guy. Nothing fast, probably on the slower end of average scale. However I also ran track all four years so that probably had something to do with it.