9. wrote:
Yeah I think the shoes are worth about 1s/k optimistically. The problem is that there are multiple factors at play. For example, I think even without the shoes runners in the NCAA are running 3s faster in the 1500 on average than ever before. Add in the shoes and you get a 4 second improvement, but people are too quick to clump all of that improvement together and attribute it to just the shoes.
Yep. The first thing is that runners are just faster now. I mean, in the past 8 years or so, we've had a high school kid run sub 4 EVERY YEAR. In the previous 50 years, only 4 had ever done it. Now these kids and their peers are starting to run in the NCAA. We'll see pro times dropping on average in the next few years too, and not because of the "magic shoes".
And the second thing is that the NCAA season is COMPLETELY different than it used to be because of the pandemic. Online classes leave more time to train. They had 9-11 months of ZERO racing or peaking, just base building. The pandemic is a MASSIVE confounding variable here.