Will the college kids be toast/burnt out by the time Oly Trials?

I would say that one of them might squeeze in and make the team in the 1500. Most likely Nuguse. Besides that keep your expectations very very low.

runningmanic2 wrote:

We've seen it plenty of times in the past and you have to admit, the NCAA/collegiate season takes a lot out of these athletes. Many people banking on these athletes (Laird, Nuguse, Hocker, Teare, etc) making the team when in fact many of them will probably be very tired and burnt out by the time the olympic trials comes and there competing against very seasoned vets who will be fresh. Example in 2019, Sha'Carri Richardson bombed in both 100 and 200 by the time the nationals came after dominated the ncaa season and setting the 100 NCAA record.

Nuguse has run all of three 1500 races this year, and focused on XC early in the year rather than indoor. I'd say that there is little chance that he will be burned out.

For reference: Nuguse's last 6mo

Dec 2020

DNR

Jan 2021

DNR

Feb 2021

02/01: 8k in 23:16

Mar 2021

03/15: 10k (xc) in 30:26

03/25: 5000m in 13:40

Apr 2021

DNR

May 2021

05/07: 1500 in 3:35

05/14: 1500 in 3:34

05/15: 1500 in 3:40

For reference: Hocker's last 6mo

Dec 2020

DNR

Jan 2021

01/29: 3000 in 7:46

01/30: DMR

Feb 2021

02/12: 800 in 1:48

02/13: Mile in 3:50

Mar 2021

03/11: Mile in 3:56

03/13: Mile in 3:53

03/13: 3000 in 7:46

Apr 2021

04/02: 800 in 1:46

04/03: 1500 in 3:38

04/23: 5000 in 13:19

May 2021

05/07: 1500 in 3:36

05/14: 800 in 1:47

05/14: 5000 in 13:32

05/15: 800 in 1:46

There is a history of collegians making US teams because they’re so race sharp. Heck, Stanford alone had Gabe, Stember, Brad, Robison, Hall, Dobson in several year span.

Centro, Murphy, Hoppel, etc are more examples as well as people like Lomong and Engels running their very best at USAs (but just missing out). Scores of others.

If anything, 2020/21 is the BEST year to be a collegian trying to make the team. Expect at least one of Hocker/Nugese to be on that 1500 squad, possibly both.

Yes they will be burnt out. There may be one or two exceptional ones, but most will not reproduce their stellar times at Nationals. Laird, I expect to make it to the Olympics, but none other.

I guess it depends on the event. In 2019, the college season and the NCAAs were a great buildup for athletes like Grant Holloway and Bryce Hoppel. Holloway got lots of practice on his hurdling technique that took him to gold in Doha, while Hoppel was able to get his tactics in the 800 spot on to finish 4th. Somebody like Athing Mu could carry her NCAA success into the Trials, then eventually the Olympics, and get a medal.

In the longer events, I think it is also a good lead up for a lot of the athletes if there goal is simply to make the team at the US Trials, which I think several will. However, I think it's a mute point whether this will help them at the actual Olympics as the US college guys are a little too far off to be any threat at medals. I could see any of Negusse, Hocker, and Teare making the team in the 1,500 or 5,000. Heck, Mantz may have a shot at 10K. I don't think any of them can medal at the Olympics though.

Yep, just like Clayton Murphy.

In reality, maybe or maybe not, but I believe they are at a disadvantage to guys like Centro and Brazier who have been chilling and will most likely be fresh and not trying to extend their racing fitness. The Oregon guys' improvement curve has already flattened significantly - they haven't really set any PR's since mid-indoors and could just be training through or be running on fumes.

dil wrote:

There is a history of collegians making US teams because they’re so race sharp. Heck, Stanford alone had Gabe, Stember, Brad, Robison, Hall, Dobson in several year span.

Centro, Murphy, Hoppel, etc are more examples as well as people like Lomong and Engels running their very best at USAs (but just missing out). Scores of others.

If anything, 2020/21 is the BEST year to be a collegian trying to make the team. Expect at least one of Hocker/Nugese to be on that 1500 squad, possibly both.

Hoppel is a really good example of someone who (on paper) was a burnout candidate his last year at Kansas.

Q: Who makes the 1500 team of they’re 2:40 at the bell? What’s the winning time?

Q: Who makes the 5k team if they’re 10:40 at the bell?

Sorry sorry sorry 10:40 at 4k***