Official Athlete Special 800m Prediction Contest

Trackfan55 wrote:

Not Danny Mackey wrote:

It’s early March, Mackey is focused on peaking his athletes for the trials, not this. Spence is training with the 1500m group.

CopperRunner is spot on, 1.49.5 sounds about right.

I love the armchair coaches on letsrun, telling Danny Mackey - a highly successful coach - how to train his own athlete. Kerr and Ribich have both stated numerous times on their podcast that they’re in shape to hit the Olympic standard. They’ve both been in the system long enough to quantify what certain workout times mean in the overall structure of Danny’s training so I’m confident that Spencer can PR too.

Ribich looks like he is coming along, but he is still a level below Kerr. His PR is 3.37.35 so to run sub 3.35.00 for his season opener sounds ambitious. Kerr gets it comfortably, I’ll say 3.33/3.36 for those two. Good luck to both it’s been fun getting a look at the Beasts these past months.

I'm equally concerned for Spencer's 800m race based on recent workouts and that tune up session BUT there's no way I'll call into question the plan of his coach, when we've seen such demonstrated success coaching Kerr.

Yes this 800 won't set the world alight and the same few people will come for TAS on this board but no doubt later this year he'll be in superb form

Trackfan55 wrote:

Not Danny Mackey wrote:

It’s early March, Mackey is focused on peaking his athletes for the trials, not this. Spence is training with the 1500m group.

CopperRunner is spot on, 1.49.5 sounds about right.

I love the armchair coaches on letsrun, telling Danny Mackey - a highly successful coach - how to train his own athlete. Kerr and Ribich have both stated numerous times on their podcast that they’re in shape to hit the Olympic standard. They’ve both been in the system long enough to quantify what certain workout times mean in the overall structure of Danny’s training so I’m confident that Spencer can PR too.

We will see. I'll come back and eat crow if he pops off.

Snowflake elite wrote:

1:48 high

I'm a bit less optimistic after watching him next to Windle in the video. I know he's a 400/800 guy and Spencer isn't, but he looks so much smoother/faster compared to Spencer. I'm revising my prediction to 1:50. Hopefully TAS doesn't experience any more setbacks after this most recent injury...

height, vertical jump, etc wrote:

1:51.52

There will be 3 different excuses including the minor injury setback and some wind.

He will continue to run mile repeats and 5 mile tempos and never run 1:48 again.

The guy is not an 800m guy. He is a 1500/5k guy with speed who mistakes that speed for 800m potential.

He is like me--a skinny :49 400m white boy. He ran probably twice as much as I did in college, and he was :02 faster in the 800, :10 in the mile, and 2:00 in the 10k. He's me with incredible cardio. He should have moved up. Heck, he already trains like he moved up!

I agree with this but I don't think he has any delusions of being a true 800 runner. He hasn't run the 8 for his conference meet in 2-3 years.

Have you seen the 1500m field? He has no business being in that race, yet. In this 800m field he can go through the bell on the tail end of the pack at least.

vlt. wrote:

I'm really rooting for the guy, but that tuneup workout wasn't confidence inspiring.

I ran equivalent tuneup workouts when I was in 1:52-1:54 shape so giving him some benefit of the doubt my guess is 1:51.1.

Hope all the pieces start coming together later this season!

I think today's workout was a bit more encouraging than last week's. You gotta assume Windle is in 1:45-6 shape right now, and Spencer wasn't sticking on him by any means but he wasn't getting blown out of the water, he was within 1-2 seconds of Windle on some fast reps. I am thinking he could run somewhere in the 1:48-49 range.. Give me 1:49.5

1:50.91

TMADDDHASFNE wrote:

First race as an almost Brooks's Beast on March 6th in Cali. Can we Expect Great Things?

According to his Georgetown profile page his PR for 800m is 1:49.12. Might have run faster since then?

Anyway, I'll go out on a limb and say he's better trained with the Beasts despite the Covid setback and will run. 1:47:00. Maybe, I'm overly optimistic!

Hoping all the Beast's to do well since they seem to be a likable bunch, although maybe not quite in the freak talent range of the Bowerman folks.

The winner of this contest can look forward to a shoutout from Spencer on his Vlog, maybe…maybe not.

After going out in 53, he finishes in 2:32 and quits running because he is a nobody.

Let it Rupp wrote:

vlt. wrote:

I'm really rooting for the guy, but that tuneup workout wasn't confidence inspiring.

I ran equivalent tuneup workouts when I was in 1:52-1:54 shape so giving him some benefit of the doubt my guess is 1:51.1.

Hope all the pieces start coming together later this season!

I think today's workout was a bit more encouraging than last week's. You gotta assume Windle is in 1:45-6 shape right now, and Spencer wasn't sticking on him by any means but he wasn't getting blown out of the water, he was within 1-2 seconds of Windle on some fast reps. I am thinking he could run somewhere in the 1:48-49 range.. Give me 1:49.5

The tuneup session was worse, if anything. I was never a speed-based runner and could have comfortably kept up in that workout when I was in 1:54-ish shape without pushing myself.

The 600 and 400 were pretty much cruising and the "fast" 300 and 150 were even worse, barely breaking 40 and 19. For reference, one of the reasons I think I was unable to go faster was that my straight line speed peaked around a 24.5 200 and 18.2 150 and I don't think I've seen Spencer go much faster than that.

I'm rooting for the guy but after the recent injury setback he seems to be a level below where he was and a level below the rest of the Beasts. Fortunately this shouldn't be a lasting setback, but I'd be surprised if this 800 is faster than 1:50 and more likely see him running in the 1:51-1:52 range. Thankfully, it's very early in the season, so the form should come back soon .

Spencer ran a 17.X for 150 in the last workout in ABQ before his injury so he’s definitely not capped out running 18.X. Also you’re making assumptions on his fitness based on a pre-race workout? A 39 300 is 52 pace for 400 which is faster than race pace for Spencer, what do you want him doing? Ripping a 36 and flexing for the camera pre-race?

Trackfan55 wrote:

Spencer ran a 17.X for 150 in the last workout in ABQ before his injury so he’s definitely not capped out running 18.X. Also you’re making assumptions on his fitness based on a pre-race workout? A 39 300 is 52 pace for 400 which is faster than race pace for Spencer, what do you want him doing? Ripping a 36 and flexing for the camera pre-race?

Mackey seems to have very clear paces for each workout. Doesn’t seem like any of them give it full gas very often.

Windle ran 37.5 for 300m, that’s not all out for him.

Bot Danny Mackey wrote:

Trackfan55 wrote:

Spencer ran a 17.X for 150 in the last workout in ABQ before his injury so he’s definitely not capped out running 18.X. Also you’re making assumptions on his fitness based on a pre-race workout? A 39 300 is 52 pace for 400 which is faster than race pace for Spencer, what do you want him doing? Ripping a 36 and flexing for the camera pre-race?

Mackey seems to have very clear paces for each workout. Doesn’t seem like any of them give it full gas very often.

Windle ran 37.5 for 300m, that’s not all out for him.

Yeah that’s exactly my point! Some of the people on this thread seem to think that every workout is either A) designed for maximal exertion or B) just randomly cobbled together with no hint of a plan where in reality Danny has a plan and each workout has a purpose. People on letsrun need to stop analyzing workouts in a vacuum and think of them within the picture of a season

That’s what I was thinking, he just doesn’t look anywhere close to the same league as Windle right now. I’ve watched his videos for a while though, and I think he’s always raced better than his workouts alone would indicate. We’ll see tomorrow what he looks like.

1:48 high

I'm sure you would have easily kept up. Keep telling yourself that.

1:59:59 or slower

Drew Windle is a good looking dude, no homo

1:49 for TAS