If Nick Willis was American, how many National titles would he have won?

With Webb, Lagat, Manzano and Centro it wouldn't be easy to rack up USA 1500m titles over that period.

2004, 2005 and 2007 Webb destroyed everyone at USAT even though Lagat won Gold at the 2007 WC.

Yeah, Willis won an Olympic medal in 2008 but Lagat was sharp in the 08 Trails.

Lagat was again tough to beat in 2009 and got a WC Bronze that year.

Lomong edged Manzano in 2010. Willis would have been in the mix.

2011 Centro was a "surprise" winner in a stacked field where a fit Wheating was 4th.

2012 Manzano was on.

Centro won 2013 and got a Silver at worlds

Manzano won 2014. Could have been a Willis year

Centro back on top in 2015.

Centro was great in 2016. Fahgetaboutit

Robby Andrews took it in 2017 - maybe a Willis year. He did better than any American at Worlds

Centro again in 2018

Engels over Centro in 2019

I'd say Willis would have won 2-3 USA titles over that time.

what about this, as a side question:

I believe all of these guys were all at Michigan at some point, but did they ever actually line up to do a workout together?

Nick Willis (3:49 mile)

Alan Webb (3:46 mile)

Nate Brennen (3:52 mile)

Kevin Sullivan (3:50 mile)

??????

Hardloper wrote:

michiganrunner55 wrote:

He is a much better tactical racer than everyone but Centro but was better in Diamond League races than all of them combined

Wrong, Centro has been a non-factor on the Diamond League

How does your statement make his "wrong"? If anything, it supports his statement.

Juice,

Send me your email and I'll email you the article.

robert@letsrun.com

If Willis had to peak for nationals, how much worse would his olympic/wc been?

Realistically I think he had like a 20-30% chance to win most years (bump the andrews year up to like 50%) so odds are he would win a couple. And obviously adding him to those races might have changed how most of them were run.

Yes I can. That’s a major feature of this site

U.S. always had some decent contenders, but based on my recollection of how people raced at USATFs in a given year (for instance, Lagat was off his game in 2008, etc.), I'm guessing the following as champ:

2004: Webb

2005: Webb

2006: Lagat

2007: Webb

2008: Willis

2009: Willis (assuming Lagat doesn't run as defending WC from 2007 -- if Lagat runs, he wins)

2010: Willis

2011: Centrowitz (kind of a hard year to predict -- Willis had a great year but a terrible WCs, while Centro medaled)

2012: Manzano

2013: Centrowitz

2014: Willis

2015: Centrowitz

2016: Centrowitz

2017: Willis

2018: Centrowitz

So, since 2004< I think he would've won 5.

birdbeard wrote:

U.S. always had some decent contenders, but based on my recollection of how people raced at USATFs in a given year (for instance, Lagat was off his game in 2008, etc.), I'm guessing the following as champ:

2004: Webb

2005: Webb

2006: Lagat

2007: Webb

2008: Willis

2009: Willis (assuming Lagat doesn't run as defending WC from 2007 -- if Lagat runs, he wins)

2010: Willis

2011: Centrowitz (kind of a hard year to predict -- Willis had a great year but a terrible WCs, while Centro medaled)

2012: Manzano

2013: Centrowitz

2014: Willis

2015: Centrowitz

2016: Centrowitz

2017: Willis

2018: Centrowitz

So, since 2004< I think he would've won 5.

There is zero chance that Willis wins in 2009 and 2010. Zero. Seriously look at his times from May to August those years. He wasn't winning my HS state meet :)

2008 Is debateable. He barely beat an injured Lagat at the olympics. At the trials I would go with Lagat

2014 is tough. He had the fast times but Leo was also in great shape. Willis is my favorite but we are talking like 70/30 at best

2017 is also tough. Andrews got injured before the WC. Centro aggravated his injury also and wasn't in great shape at the championships. But Willis also wasn't in peak form. I give him like a 50% chance

In those other years I give him like a 10% chance. Realistically I think the average outcome is 2-3 wins. It was a very good run for US 1500m guys.

Hardloper wrote:

michiganrunner55 wrote:

He is a much better tactical racer than everyone but Centro but was better in Diamond League races than all of them combined

Wrong, Centro has been a non-factor on the Diamond League

Are you stupid?

birdbeard wrote:

U.S. always had some decent contenders, but based on my recollection of how people raced at USATFs in a given year (for instance, Lagat was off his game in 2008, etc.), I'm guessing the following as champ:

2004: Webb

2005: Webb

2006: Lagat

2007: Webb

2008: Willis

2009: Willis (assuming Lagat doesn't run as defending WC from 2007 -- if Lagat runs, he wins)

2010: Willis

2011: Centrowitz (kind of a hard year to predict -- Willis had a great year but a terrible WCs, while Centro medaled)

2012: Manzano

2013: Centrowitz

2014: Willis

2015: Centrowitz

2016: Centrowitz

2017: Willis

2018: Centrowitz

So, since 2004< I think he would've won 5.

You should look at Willis’s results for each season or frankly your conjecture isn’t worth much.

I would guess three titles: ‘06, ‘12, and ‘14. He would have had an shot in ‘05, ‘08, and every other year from ‘11-‘16, but 3 seems like a fair over/under.

This thread is based on the fact that Rupp and Symmonds both win 8 US titles.

But the American depth in the 10,000 and 800 was not as good as the 1500.

Not what I said. I said Nick is a better Diamond League racer and Centro is a slightly better tactical racer

not an insult, just a question wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

Wrong, Centro has been a non-factor on the Diamond League

Are you stupid?

Not what I said. I said Nick is a better Diamond league racer and Centro is a slightly better tactical racer

michiganrunner55 wrote:

not an insult, just a question wrote:

Are you stupid?

Not what I said. I said Nick is a better Diamond league racer and Centro is a slightly better tactical racer

When I say all I mean American milers over the last 15 years

A good indicator is "How many ncaa titles did Nick Willis win at Michigan?"

You just remembered that off of the top of your head? Please let me know. If so, that's incredible. It took me hours of research. Of course, your memory is a bit faulty as I had different conclusions when i had all of the facts in front of me.

For example.

2006 is wrong as Lagat didn't run USAs.

2009 is wrong as Willis was injured outdoors.

2010 - I put maybe dut don't think so

I think he would have won both 2011 and 2012

2014 was the only year where I said 100% yes. 2015 I said most likely as well. Willis ran 329 that year.

Plus you are missing a big one. 2003. I'll share what I wrote about 2003 here for the non SC members.

I meant to put that in the article. He only won 1 individual and 1 team but that's misleading. They didn't focus on NCAAs all that much. Didn't he only run 3 years of NCAAs? And he only ran the 1500 at NCAAs one time - in 2003, his freshman year. I think he might have won it but he fell. In 2004, he went to the Olympics. In 2005, he didn't care about it and ran the 5000 to give him strength for Worlds. I don't see any NCAAs in 2006 so did he go pro early? Tilastapaja only shows 2003-2004-2005 for NCAAs. Is that correct?

If he was going for it, I think he could have easily won 4 or 5 NCAA titles.

And people who say peak Webb was better than peak Willis aren't correct according to the stats. I know it SEEMS like that. And Willis certainly never did anything like Webb did in the Paris DL, but according to the clock peak Willis is better than peak Webb. Willis' 1500 pb of 3:29.77 converts to 3:46.5 in the mile - faster than Webb's AR.

rojo wrote:

2006 is wrong as Lagat didn't run USAs.

Yes he did—he won both the 1500 and the 5000. In fact, in your article you said Willis wouldn’t win in ‘06 because Lagat would beat him.

I think Willis would have had a good chance to beat Lagat in that particular race, but that could be unfair as I’m basing it on the fact that Lagat only beat Gabe Jennings by .13 seconds in a 3:39 race at USAs. Manzano, still a 21 year old collegian, was just .07 behind Jennings for 3rd. Willis was in good form, winning Commonwealth Games gold in a 3:38 race and later clocking a pair of 3:32s that season.

rojo wrote:I don't see any NCAAs in 2006 so did he go pro early? Tilastapaja only shows 2003-2004-2005 for NCAAs. Is that correct?

Seems to be. One could reasonably assume he opted out of his last NCAA season to focus on doing this in late March instead: