It's FINALLY here. So who's going to man-up at Foot Locker? (Boys predictions)

I want there to be an upset so badly because that's what makes things exciting, but I do not think it will happen. Grant is still going to win, but he's obviously going to have to really work for it, which could push him to a really fast time. The only reason he seems super out of reach (which he is to an extent) is because he is by far the best in HIS REGION. I think if he would have raced at West, it would have been a little closer, or he would have had to work for it a little harder. Since nobody else is predicting yet.. I will just throw some names out there with a possible place to get things started at least. With that being said, I think it will possibly be:

1.) Grant Fisher 2.) Matthew Maton 3.) Andrew Hunter 4.)John Dressel 5.) Alex Ostberg 6.) Elijah Armstrong 7.) Austin Tamagno 8.) Carter Blunt 9.)Jesse Reiser 10.) Thomas Pollard

These are rather inaccurate to an extent, as it gets harder to pick 4-10 because a lot of those spots are interchangeable. Anybody could have a bad race,and I think a lot of these guys are really close. It's also really hard because most have not even raced each other. The only one I think anybody could argue is accurate would be 1st - Grant Fisher.

In-depth analysis challenge:

Can someone list the runners by 1600prs and by 3200 pr's and the the runners who have won the most races in both track and cross country?

Lazy Fan wrote:

In-depth analysis challenge:

Can someone list the runners by 1600prs and by 3200 pr's and the the runners who have won the most races in both track and cross country?

Gimme a second.

Who is doubling back from NxN?

That was more of a "pull an order of runners out of my ass" analysis.

Lazy Fan wrote:

In-depth analysis challenge:

Can someone list the runners by 1600prs and by 3200 pr's and the the runners who have won the most races in both track and cross country?

I'm only going to do the favorites because I have some homework that I'm procrastinating right now.

1600/Mile

Fisher: 4:02.02y

Maton: 4:03.23y

Tamagno: 4:06.67y

Mantz: 4:07.63y

Armstrong: 4:09.04 (altitude)

Hunter: 4:10.94y

Dressel: 4:10.95

Hacker: 4:11.54

Ostberg: 4:14.66

3200/2Mile

Fisher: 8:51.28

Hunter: 8:53.81y

Ostberg: 8:52.64

Mantz: 8:52.90

Armstrong: 8:55.92

Tamagno: 8:56.86

Dressel: 8:57.00

Maton: 8:18.66 3k

Hacker: 9:14.54

As for races:

Fisher never loses to anyone.

Hunter is untested on the national stage--he lost to Brannigan in the 2 mile at nationals, and beat Justyn Knight and Ostberg in the 3k at Penn.

Ostberg has come on strong recently. He finished 11th here last year, but didn't lose to anyone on the list except Hunter last year; he beat Armstrong in the 5k at nationals easily, with a 14:16.

Mantz lost to Armstrong a lot indoors last year, but came into his own outdoors. He lost to Fisher at Brooks, Maton and Fisher at the dream mile, but beat Dressel, Armstrong, and Tamagno throughout outdoors in the 3200 and 5k.

Armstrong lost to nearly everyone on the list outdoors. He beat Dressel at Arcadia, but lost to Mantz.

Tamagno lost to Maton at Brooks, and Armstrong and Mantz at Arcadia, but beat Dressel at Arcadia and Armstrong at Brooks.

Dressel lost to everyone on the list at Arcadia, and didn't beat these guys outdoors.

Maton beats everyone but Fisher; Fisher is the only person who's beaten him recently.

Hacker is new to the national stage and didn't go against anyone in track.

In Cross, it's also really close. Everyone on the list has beaten everyone before, except those who haven't tested themselves against people on the list, and Fisher. There's no clear favorite.

For my predictions, I'm trying to get my hopes up for a really fast race, but I doubt it'll happen really. Tamagno, Maton, Fisher, Armstrong, Hunter, Dressel, and Hacker are all very confident in their kicks. Mantz and Ostberg know they can't win in a kick.

First mile in 4:50 I bet, very bunched up. I predict Ostberg makes a move either on or after the first hill to string out the field. Either he or Dressel will have to make a secondary move later in the race if they want to break away. Mantz isn't yet in shape enough to stay with. Pace is probably moderately fast until the big hill the second time, where Tamagno, Armstrong, Ostberg, or Dressel is going to try to win the race. Fisher, Hunter, Maton, or Hacker will try to stay with. If the latter four are with the former four by the time there's 400 meters to go, one of the latter is going to win.

The winning time is going to be 14:51-58.

I think the winner of the race is going to be Fisher. People are discounting him, and it's ridiculous. He's even better than last year, and never loses to high school competition. Anyone I've mentioned can give him a great fight, however. A Fisher-Maton final straightaway would be very fun to watch, as would a Fisher-Hunter last 600.

I love it when people bring up mile times in XC. Sukhi ran a 4.13 time trial then goes to perform poorly at NXN.

Fisher is the best 2 miler in the field and that's why he'll win. He is invincible in HS running this fall. You cannot beat him legally.

Also don't bet on CA runners at footlocker. They apparently don't believe in peaking and traditionally perform like chumps at this meet. Trust the midwest kids.

Ben Veatch from Carmel, IN is. He will probably be in the mix. He was 7th yesterday at NXN, and is probably the 2nd best junior behind Andrew Hunter.

Yeah- Was the 4:13 time trial supposed to be impressive? I don't get it.I agree with you on Fisher being the best 2 miler in the field. He absolutely jogged the first 3K of the Brooks meet last year before unleashing his :26 last 200m. He was capable of low-8:40s last year. But part of that equation is being in 4:02 mile shape.

predictor wrote:

I love it when people bring up mile times in XC. Sukhi ran a 4.13 time trial then goes to perform poorly at NXN.

Fisher is the best 2 miler in the field and that's why he'll win. He is invincible in HS running this fall. You cannot beat him legally.

Also don't bet on CA runners at footlocker. They apparently don't believe in peaking and traditionally perform like chumps at this meet. Trust the midwest kids.

Tamagno is a junior too. 4:06 (?) as a sophomore. Broke the Mt Sac record this fall. He's probably considered up there with Hunter at he moment. Not taking anything away from Veatch, just sayin'.

runnin wrote:

Ben Veatch from Carmel, IN is. He will probably be in the mix. He was 7th yesterday at NXN, and is probably the 2nd best junior behind Andrew Hunter.

But... wrote:

I'm only going to do the favorites because I have some homework that I'm procrastinating right now.

1600/Mile

Fisher: 4:02.02y

Maton: 4:03.23y

Tamagno: 4:06.67y

Mantz: 4:07.63y

Armstrong: 4:09.04 (altitude)

Hunter: 4:10.94y

Dressel: 4:10.95

Hacker: 4:11.54

Ostberg: 4:14.66

Ostberg split 4:06 for 1600 at Nike Outdoor Nationals during the DMR:

I know he is still officially a 4:14 miler, and a 4:06 1600 split is not a mile time from a standing start, but it better places his ability into context than his official best.

Would be fun to watch these guys. plus the NXN guys run a 5k on the track this spring. Maybe Brooks? How many, if any, could get under 14:00?

Do I know you? I was talking with some people about this a couple weeks ago. It would be fun to watch.

But back on the topic..

Boys:

Fisher- Hard to bet against him

Dressel/Maton- Depends on whether Maton wants to go with Dressel when he makes his move.

Ostberg- Has had a great season, but it truly depends on how much he has recovered from his injury.

Tamagno- May be a little lower, because of CA fatigue (no rest for several weeks).

Thomet- In the mix with Ostberg and Tamagno.

Hacker- Would be contending with Dressel/Maton if he didn't do NXN.

Armstrong- He spent a lot last weekend to win or else he may be able to to compete with Thomet.

Hunter- Looks good, but not quite where the others are.

Mantz- Depends on how much he has recovered, but I would be surprised if he makes top 6. Not 100% will make it hard to compete with the big boys this season.

Here's to a great race for everyone!

I'm curious--why are you discounting Maton, Armstrong, and Hunter?

Hunter has broken 15 more times than anyone else in the race this season I believe, and not all on easy courses.

Armstrong has been to Footlocker before, and runs very high volume: he knows how to prepare, and he'll recover quickly.

Maton is nearly as fast as Fisher in the mile and seems to be more strength-oriented than Fisher is.

I'm tipping Maton for Saturday. Fisher likes being the underdog, but there's a lot of pressure here on him.

Remember when everyone was saying that Anderson was going to win NXN by 45 seconds? Had he not mis-timed his finishing kick, Olin Hacker would have beaten him. Hacker ran a 4:08y last year and his two mile PR was from a very tactical state meet. He will be in the mix for the win in San Diego. No one drops him in cross. 5 seconds off Solinsky's Wisconsin state record and solinsky ran 14:40 at balboa. Reiser over Hacker? Really? He will be top 3 and is not on anyone's radar.

Shamrockwiz wrote:

Remember when everyone was saying that Anderson was going to win NXN by 45 seconds? Had he not mis-timed his finishing kick, Olin Hacker would have beaten him. Hacker ran a 4:08y last year and his two mile PR was from a very tactical state meet. He will be in the mix for the win in San Diego. No one drops him in cross. 5 seconds off Solinsky's Wisconsin state record and solinsky ran 14:40 at balboa. Reiser over Hacker? Really? He will be top 3 and is not on anyone's radar.

Let's be real here, Hacker was not touching Anderson. I don't even think Anderson went all-out yesterday, and if Hacker had tried to stay close to him, he would have been destroyed. Dressel tried to beat him and could barely keep his legs moving at WA state. Barnard tried to stick with him and had to crawl across the line. Anderson is merciless on the cross country course and Hacker was smart to not try to stay with him. That said, Hacker is clearly better than Reiser, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him knock off some big names and get top 5.

Why wasn't Trautmann at '85 FL? That would have been sick!

If Ostberg is fully recovered and healthy, he'll be in the mix.