Pac 10 1500: Rupp vs Centro vs Wheating vs Coe vs Heath

This is a sick field. I think Wheating wins, and Coe just beats Heath with Centro, Rupp, and then Abbott following.

When did Coe run 3:37?

Tony Horton wrote:

When did Coe run 3:37?

He ran an equivalent mile, pretty sure he's never gone that fast for an actual 1500.

Does anyone honestly think that this is in the best interest of Rupp's long-term development, or even his short-term plans in a World Championships year? Why do Americans persist in the belief that the NCAA system will help develop distance runners? It's great in developing sprinters and some field event performers, and sure there are some successes--obviously Rono, Virgin and Al Sal come to mind from way back and I have really high hopes for Rupp and Fernandez. But why submit your athletes to a system that requires them to peak in May/June for Regionals/NCAAs, late June for Nationals/Trials, and August for World's? I think Al Sal has Rupp's long-term future in mind but does Lananna? Is there any reason for Lananna to?

>>>>So who's going to take it? Rupp will be running the 1500 meters because if he drops out of an event, he cannot run the next event. Therefore he WILL run the 10,000 and 1500 meters, and since the 5000 meters is the last event for him, that will be determined by the team score- if he needs to run, he will.

Good points...

This does seem curious to have him triple in a 3 day meet.

I'd be surprised if he ran the 5k.

What it looks like is that he is training through this meet...the 1500 being fast pace work, and the 10k being an easy event for him generally...

The 5k as an insurance plan if they need the points.

I do not think that Lananna is doing this against Salazar's advice... I am sure they are in accord.

What is most curious to me is that Oregon doesn't really need to win the Pac Ten in order to qualify for the regionals or NCAA's.

In some way shape or form, Rupp is training through this meet and these are workouts for him.

The truth may be that it's been that way all year...that he peaked for Cross Country, and that every thing since has been essentially small tapers while training through for the longer term big picture...

It is going to be interesting!

Very good insight, thanks. Hadn't really thought about the possibility that he was using races as workouts but it definitely makes sense. The one thing I'm not sure about though is something you bring up--if Oregon wants to be in the hunt for the national championship, do they need to do anything more than qualify? Does a regional championship matter, line anyone's coffers, bump up a cv?

2 day meet.

And nobody needs to win the PAC-10 meet in order to qualify for regionals or NCAA's.

I think Lanana always has his athlete's best interest in mind. If I recall, when he was at Stanford, he red shirted Stember and Jennings (and maybe others) in 1999 so they could race in Europe during the summer season and gain experience to prepare them for the 2000 Olympics. In doing so, he likely cost Stanford an outdoor track national title. In other words, he didn't sacrifice the long-term careers of individual athletes for short-term gains. Lanana understands the big picture.

As far as Rupp, goes, tripling at a conference meet doesn't seem to be the wisest thing. However, his 10K will be much less than an all out effort and he should recover quickly. Regarding the 1500, Bob Kennedy focused on the mile/1500 in college to develop his speed and prepare himself for the international circuit post college. As he's the only US born athlete to break 13:00 for 5K, maybe more should follow Kennedy and Rupp's lead...

Nice info and insights, thanks.

I'm guessing this race will be somewhat of a kickers race, which does not bode well for rupp - he probably wants to conserve energy for the 5k and might be hesitant to take the lead, but i think he should. he's proven he can ran very fast by himself, and i think that off of a hot pace right now centro and wheating are easily the fastest guys in this field. centro may be a better racer, in that he runs better alone/unpushed over 1500 than wheating, but in a tight race i don't see wheating losing it. Heath and Coe will have to scramble for places as Oregon will inevitably have some kind of team strategy, even that strategy is no more than: every man for himself.

My predictions up front:

1. Wheating

2. Centro

3. Rupp

4. Coe

5. Heath

6. Abbott

unsure on Acosta - i don't think he's raced so far this year? correct me if i'm wrong.

tough race to be in...i mean you're a 3:45 guy in college and you're not even in the action.

Do you honestly think Rupp running 1 1500m race is jeopardizing his long term development?

Are you a p*ssy? The point of track and field is to race and beat everyone who comes to the line.

"Development" is just an excuse for athletes and coaches to explain away being beaten.

Bekele and El Gerrouj and Geb don't beat you because they have developed ahead of you; they win because they step to the line to win - because they are better.

I'm sick of this "development" crap.

Just a heads up. Abdi Hassan cannot be excluded from anyone's final standings.

I'm going to say he finished 4th or better. He has the kick, talent, and confidence to do it -- as a RS freshman.

I think i read somewhere Acosta was red shirting.

This is a tough top four to predict it's going to be a really tight race. With Rupp's supreme endurance and Wheating's stellar kick there may be some conflict of interest as to Oregon's strategy for this race though.

Yes, Acosta is definitely redshirting or he would have been part of the 4x mile relay attempt, instead of Biwott.

As someone else said, I'm interested to see whether Rupp attempts the triple victory for its own sake, or whether he's more interested in points, in which he wouldn't try to outkick his own teammate, since a 1-2-3 by Oregon in a given in event yields the same points regardless of who's in the first spot.

Cheseret pulled off the triple back in 2006, I think. But Cheseret had faster speed and much less competition. That 1,500 is loaded. Probably the strongest 1,500 field that the Pac-10 has ever had. You're looking at 5 of the top 9 1,500 runners in the nation plus Rupp.

That race will be full of pushing and shoving unless someone decides to push the pace... which I could see happening if Lannana decides that it's in his best interest to have a fast race.

Should be interesting.

An important factor to keep in mind is that Oregon are not out for individual titles; Lananna could care less if Centro won or if McNamara won, they are out to win as many points as possible to win the team title.

Of course each athlete wants to win but not at the expense of another athlete gaining valuable points. It will be interesting to see what they try. I dont think they will try and run a fast race, I think they will try to have all 5 of their guys scoring.

It should not surprise anyone that Rupp is entered in all three events. There are several reasons for this:

First, it's the conference championship meet. This is a big deal. No, it's not about qualifying for the regional or national meets, it's about winning the conference meet. If you don't get this I don't know what else to say, you've obviously never been in or around big time college track. Might Oregon in it's entire history has only won 5 or 6 of them.

Second, Lananna does not want to win, he wants to dominate and humiliate. This is part of what makes him good.

Third, it's about the show. These are some of the things that Oregon fans complained about, and why Lananna has this job anyway.

Finally, I doubt Rupp runs the 5k. And people are right, this should not be that big of a deal for him. He may not be able to win the 1500, but the 10k will be a joke. He's a legit 27:30 guy, even if he has to run 29:00 to win, which he won't, it won't take anything out of him.

Hmm...hang on. Let me check. No, nope, I'm not a p*ssy. But thanks for enlightening me--I've learned a lot from your post. Could you please explain in more detail the racing schedules that allowed Bekele and El Gerrouj and Geb to become better than the Americans? Specifically, I'd be interested to hear about the pressure placed on them indoors for their collegiate championships, the regional and national collegiate outdoor championships at which they routinely are expected to double (or maybe even triple), their national championships at which athletes may be forced to peak simply to make a national team, in advance of the big meet of the year--in this case, World's--where they want to perform at their very best. If, as you say, "The point of track and field is to race," and, if you'll agree, the East Africans are handing Americans their asses regularly, then by your logic the East Africans must be lining up to race even more regularly than the Americans, right?

When did Americans become... wrote:

Do you honestly think Rupp running 1 1500m race is jeopardizing his long term development?

Are you a p*ssy? The point of track and field is to race and beat everyone who comes to the line.

"Development" is just an excuse for athletes and coaches to explain away being beaten.

Bekele and El Gerrouj and Geb don't beat you because they have developed ahead of you; they win because they step to the line to win - because they are better.

I'm sick of this "development" crap.

Er... wrote:

Does anyone honestly think that this is in the best interest of Rupp's long-term development, or even his short-term plans in a World Championships year? Why do Americans persist in the belief that the NCAA system will help develop distance runners?

Er...., I appreciate your posts. You have strong opinions and you are fair minded.

Rupp has made it clear that this is "Oregon's year" where he will help the team out with his races and team points. Can't speak to whether this is helping/hindering his long term development, but it is obvious he is having a lot of fun this year and enjoys the team aspect of track and field.