What is Cherono's 7:53 worth?

Oh...about a million bucks hopefully!

according to some IAAF scoring tables i have:

7:53 (3000m steeple)

7:22 (3000m)

12:41 (5000m)

26:28 (10000m)

3:26.5 (1500m)

3:42.9 (Mile)

1:40.95 (800m)

are all equal performances worth 1295points

Hey Gav ...thats cool...thanks!

Q

That just means that the WR is amazing. It doesn't mean Shaheen could run near those times (1:40.95!). Try a caculator or something.

Something to notice: He has equivalents of WRs in the 800 and mile and almost 1500, but not near the 3000m record, or 5000m. Shows you the level of Bekele's and Komen's records.

7:53 is sick, it's just sick the way he dominated the race and ran that time, it's better than some of those other wr's if you ask me.

More likely shows either an intentional or unintentional bias towards longer distances...

I think that the table is no more completely right, according to the evolution of long distances. I'm sure that Stephen can run steeple very close 7:50. When I start to train Stephen, I told to an Italian journalist : "May be that with this athlete I, like coach, can win for 10 years, but if he's not able running under 7:50 I, inside my mind, am not satisfied, and, technically speaking, for me is like a failure".

Before coming to me, Stephen ran 8:19, only 17 years old. Training with Kim McDonald, he went to Australia at the beginning of 2001, and in short time, using very high intensity but very little aerobic training, became not able to run fast because exhausted. So, he came back home in Kenya, resting 2 months completely. When he started training again, he used the programs that I had given to his elder brother, Christopher Koskei, when he won WCh of steeple in Seville '99. Stephen trained alone, using these programs, for 2 months, and at the first competition broke the WJ record in 7:58.86. After this, he told to Christopher : "I want to be trained by Renato", and at the end of 2001 we had the first contact. When I saw his incredible talent (also mental), I began to plan his career, for lasting long time and winning on different distances. Believe me, in two years he can run under 7:50.

But, regarding other WR, if you analyze the split, you can understand that, for 5 and 10 km, the possibility of improvement is still very high.

In 5000m, Bekele was able running last 2000m alone under 5:00. For him, El Guerrouj (that in the future wants to move also to 10000m), Kipchoge and Stephen himself, is not difficult to think of a time very close 12:30 before Beijing OG. In 10000m is very easy to improve. This year Bekele ran 13:15 + 13:05. Last year Nicholas Kemboi, with 2 months of correct training with me in St. Moritz, ran 26:30, and nobody can reach his real limit with only 2 months of training. So, what is the real limit of Nicholas if he can become fully professional, being an athlete during all the season (like Bekele, Gebre, Stephen and El Guerrouj) ? May be very close 26 minute. With the current type of training, in which we use high intensity for LONG DISTANCES, and not only short intervals, we can think that the relation between 5 and 10 km can be : time of 5 km x 2 + 6% of the time of 5 km = 10 km.

If this is correct, an athlete running 13 minute but well prepared for 10000m can run 13 x 2 = 26:00 + 46.8 = 26:46.8, and the world record of 5000 can have a value of 12:37.5 x 2 = 25:15 + 45.0 = 26:00.

The WR of shorter events are more difficult. The methodology in training for long distance changed during the last years, because the goal to last more long time at high intensity is more connected with the type of training (I await a 2:03 in marathon and a 58:30 in HM in short time). Instead, regarding short distances, the improvement is more connected with the talent of the athletes. Training didn't change very much during last 20 years. The Sebastian Coe training is very good still today, the training of great long distance runners of the past instead is now old and out of date.

So, my personal idea about the value of performances is the following :

1:41 = 3:25 = 7:20 = 12:33 = 26:08 = 58:20 = 2:03:00 = 7:50 (steeple).

=

Prize money for breaking WR from his country.

Prize money for breakinb WR from meet directors.

Increase in endorsement and contract from his sponsors.

Respect and fear from his fellow runners.

I always appreciate your posts, Renato.

Renato, what makes you think or dream that a human can run 2.06 x 5KM = 10KM performance? The ratio now is 2.0866 between the 5KM/10KM & has been for years. What is in your little bag of tricks that would allow someone like Bekela or SSS(Cherono) to trim 20+ seconds off the 10KM WR without first increasing/improving the velocity of the 5KM? Are you saying that you have something that can beat the slowdown/power/fatigue curve by 1.3% that has been universal in 5 & 10KM running for years? Stated another way again, what is it that you will be doing to allow this dramatic improvement of efficiency?

Renato,

Do you think an american can break the 8:00 barrier?

You replied to me Jzs, not Renato, but here goes. I see a USA ruuner going under 8 when he can run 12:55 for 5000.

Dear Jzs, the ratio that you say is fruit of a statistical study, and, how all the statistics, is connected with what happened till now. The reality is that the frequency with whom 5000m and 10000m are run is very much different. In any season there are more than 10 opportunities to run 5000m at toplevel, only 1 or 2 for running 10000m. This means that the most part of athletes of 10000m ARE NOT SPECIALISTS OF THIS EVENT, but of 5000m, running 10000m only in Hengelo or in Bruxelles.

In my athletes, for example, that are specialists of 10km better than 5km, we can see these results (like PB) :

JOHN KORIR : 13:09 / 26:52 (34.0 differential)

NICHOLAS KEMBOI : 13:01 / 26:30 (28.0)

HASSAN ABDULLAH : 12:56 / 26:38 (46.0)

ROBERT KIPCHUMBA : 13:19 / 27:25 (47.0)

At the same time, the runners specialists of 5km :

MARK BETT : 12:55 / 27:02 (1:12)

MOSES MOSOP : 13:09 / 27:13 (55.0)

And, about women, the Italian record holder (that is a Marathon runner),

MAURA VICECONTE : 15:18.8 / 31:05.5 (27.9)

So, you understand that speaking about a ratio is almost ridiculous, because the difference depend on the opportunities that the athletes have for competing at top level in 10000m when fully prepared. I want to continue looking at the results of Bruxelles :

CHARLES KAMATHI : 13:03 / 26:51 (45.0)

BONIFACE KIPROP : 13:07 / 27:04 (50.0)

MOSES MASAI : 13:28 / 27:07 (11.0)

During the world record women, the Chinese WANG JUNG-XIA ran 29:31 with the second half in 14:26.

Try to compare the PB of the best athletes of last year in 5km and 10km, then tell me the ratio.

Another thing : many times an athlete is able to improve of a lot of seconds his PB in 10000m, never in 5000m. Why ? Because when you REALLY decide not only to run,but also to prepare 10000m, you can modify very much your parameters of specific endurance, going very far from the statistical ratio. So, no little bag of tricks, but only specific training for an event that is not well prepared for a lot of reasons (the main is the lack of competitions).

Renato, I agree with what you say, but using Wang Junxia is not a good idea.

Her performance occurred in Beijing, China without drug testing and in the Chinese National Championships when, in the course of one week, the Chinese women set every record from 1500m-10,000m.

In light of the lack of drug testing and the ridiculous last 5,000m time, I think this record is obviously tainted with drug use. To extrapolate, what would you think if you saw Bekele run 25:50 for 10,000 with a last 5K of 12:34? Because this is what Wang did; broke the world 5,000m record in the last 5,000 after ALREADY running a fast 5,000m.

Her coach was a dubious trainer whose reputation has since been tainted with such accusations. I am not someone who spouts off without evidence about athletes taking drugs, but truly, this record is ridiculous and deserves this treatment. I know very few who think this record is clean.

Wang Junxia ran her times so stop being jealous and shut up.

Regarding the ratio, my 10000m time is 2.06 x my 5k, though I only got to race the 10000m once each year. Races for the 10000m have always been hard to find, although it has long been my favorite distance on the track.

Thus there is also much more potential in my 10k than my 5k.

Realistically I feel my 10k should be no more than 5k + 30 seconds.

10000 meter runner wrote:

Wang Junxia ran her times so stop being jealous and shut up.

What a ridiculously idiotic statement.

Should I be jealous of someone whose world record is so dubious that not a single person I know, save absurd message board posters who take up for athletes who broke the 5K world record in the last half of the race, would even consider the record could be valid?

What a sad case you are.

This is to Renato:

I am surprised that you would draw conclusions from all these people about a formula for what might yield a 26:00 10km. After all we have several great examples of what kind of 5k yields a 26:20-30 10k.

Gebrselassie: Many 5k's at top-level, a handful around 12:39-45 = in the same time frame 26:22, 26:29, etc.

Bekele = In the same week ... 12:37/26:20. He has only gone under 27 a few times, what makes you think 26:00 will be imminent?

Tergat = 12:49/26:27, certainly ran his share of top-level 5's AND 10's

Salah Hissou = WR in 10, many, many top 5k races.

Just like 27:00 and 13:00 used to be the final frontier and were cracked around the same time, 26:00 and 12:30 are closer equivalents than 12:37 and 26:00.

Something to chew on: Rono was 7:32.1 and 8:05.4. SSS is ~12 secs faster in the 'chase. Komen's 3k WR is also 12 secs faster than Rono's mark from before the precipitous drop in times occured.

Also, 7:53 has been run before by an excellent steepler who was definitely doping. So why do you think that 7:50 will be so easy?

Not every runner would be capable of this, but if SSS can run 7:50.00 for the SC, I would bet he would be in 7:19/12:35 shape for the flat races. I know that is not going out on a limb but just extrapolating for a runner who has proven to be great on the flat as well. But I just don't see someone overhauling Bekele that easily. Look how many years it took to beat Geb's 5k/10k marks? historically that was a long stretch (the 90's not withstanding). Of course, whatever made Bekele able to do it is available to any other runner, including me, so I guess we shall see.

I agree that sub 26 is imminent for the 10k.

All you need to do is look at the other times, even historically with no improvements in training, which however HAS evolved.

Comparatively, the current 10000 meter record is weak.

It should be currently under 26:10 and with sub 26 soon to follow.

I would agree that Bekele should be able to get close to 26 minutes. He has already run 26:20 with a big negative split.

Also I think that for many of these guy they can stay within 30 seconds of their 5k PR for 10k. Tergat for instance, 12:49 and 26:27, thats 13:13.5 per half. It seems that Bekele like Tergat is a better 10k runner than 5k so if he can hold on over 10k like Tergat with his 12:37 he should be able to run 26:03. This is assuming he doesn't improve over 5k either. If you look at Tergat alone Bekele has a chance, Geb is a little different. Other guys like Paul Koech 12:55. 26:36 would support Renato's conclusion.

Bekele has only run 4 10000m races, they are 26:53 (beat Geb), 26:49 (WC w/ 12:57 last half), 26:20 (WR) and 27:05 (Olympics). The only race he ran for time in he broke the world record, in his first attempt. Gebrselassie dropped his PR by 21 seconds from his first world record, so dropping the time is possible.