2012 NCAA Outdoor Track And Field Women's Preview

By LetsRun.com
June 5, 2012

The 2012 NCAA outdoor track and field championships begin on Wednesday in Des Moines, Iowa and run through Saturday. The meet can be watched on ESPN3 live on Wednesday and Thursday starting at 5:15 pm ET and 6:15 pm ET on Friday. On Saturday, the broadcast will also appear live on ESPN U and it starts at 12 noon.

To help you better enjoy the meet whether you are watching in person, on the Internet or simply following the meet online, we have previewed all of the mid-d and distance action for you. Then we give you a quick take on the team battle. For us, track and field is very exciting if you know the story lines. If you don't, then we must admit it's often pretty boring. We start with the 10,000 and then present you the other events in order of shortest to longest.

Schedule/Results appear below (all times ET).

Note: All times have been changed to ET.

2012 NCAA Outdoor Track And Field Men's Preview Here *Meet Website/More Info

Women's 10,000: Another "Upset" In The Making?

  Event 28  Women 10000 Meter Run
===================================================================
 Final only. Random draw. Double waterfall. 2/3 on main
    American:  30:22.22  8/15/2008   Shalane Flanagan, Nike                    
College Best:  31:18.07  3/26/2010   Lisa Koll, Iowa State                     
   NCAA Meet:  32:28.57  6/1/1998    Sylvia Mosqueda, Cal State La   
     Name                        Year School                 Seed           
=====================================================================
Section 1  Timed Finals
  1  Caitlin Comfort               JR Wisconsin          34:09.99 
  2  Juliet Bottorff               JR Duke               34:25.78 
  3  Elaina Balouris               SO William & Mary     34:29.88 
  4  Natosha Rogers                JR Texas A&M          33:47.12 
  5  Meaghan Nelson                JR Iowa State         34:06.79 
  6  Sarah Waldron                 SR New Mexico         33:54.56 
  7  Holly Knight                  SR Louisville         34:29.77 
  8  Emma Kertesz                  SO Toledo             34:36.34 
  9  Florence Ngetich              SO Florida            34:26.88 
 10  Elvin Kibet                   SO Arizona            34:09.81 
 11  Deborah Maier                 JR California         33:59.90 
 12  Katie Kellner                 JR Cornell            34:22.98 
 13  Aliphine Tuliamuk             JR Wichita State      33:31.54 
 14  Sarah Pagano                  SO Syracuse           34:41.58 
 15  Rose Tanui                    SR Texas Tech         34:07.94 
 16  Olivia Mickle                 JR Brown              34:30.12 
 17  Morgan Powers                 SR Vermont            34:19.38 
 18  Allison Woodward              FR Oregon             33:51.70 
 19  Andie Cozzarelli              JR N.C. State         34:25.66 
 20  Jennifer Bergman              JR Arizona            34:19.15 
 21  Jessica Rydberg               JR Notre Dame         34:36.86 
 22  Sarah Sumpter                 JR UC Davis           34:24.87 
 23  Becky Wade                    JR Rice               34:19.76 
 24  Catherine White               SR Virginia           34:18.82                                                        

Last year's surprise winner in everyone's eyes but ours - Juliet Bottorff (she was our darkhorse pick) - is back but won't be a contender as her fitness is lacking this year (16:43 in 5,000 versus 16:10 last year).

So who will win? Well, the leading two people in terms of time are Cal's Deborah Maier and Iowa State's Meaghan Nelson. Of the two, Maier is your pick no matter how you look at it. Head to head? Maier beat Nelson at Payton Jordan. 5,000 PRs? Maier's is 15:29.24 and Nelson's is 15:51. Credentials? Maier was second in the indoor 5,000 and Nelson was 4th.

If there is going to be an upset like last year, we might go with Wichita State's Aliphine Tuliamuk. She has a better 5,000 PR than Maier (15:26 versus 15:29) and much better speed  She has run 4:25 for 1,500 this year.

LRC Analysis:  An upset isn't out of the question here as neither Maier nor Nelson ran their conference meets. Maier has been battling a glute strain and has been biking a lot and had to take three weeks totally off at one point. Nelson didn't do workouts for a number of weeks. Without rabbits, will they really be able to run away from Tuliamuk? No - and we're not sure if it's an upset anyway, particularly with Maier having been hurt. Tuliamuk is very good.

LRC Prediction: 1) Tuliamuk 2) Maier 3) Waldron

Women's 800: The Indoor Champ Versus Last Year's Champ

With 2011 outdoor and 2012 indoor runner-up Natalja Piliusina opting for the 1,500, the women's 800 looks like an matchup between last year's champion Anne Kesserling of Oregon/Germany and indoor champion Nachelle Mackie of BYU, who leads the NCAA this year with a 2:01.11 seasonal best.

Kesselring has been running mainly 1,500s at the NCAA level this year (4th in PAC-12s) but don't let that or the fact her seasonal best according to the NCAA is just 2:05.46 fool you. Kesselring ran the 800 at the Prefontaine Classic over the weekend and ran a PR of 2:02.72, which would make her #3 in the NCAA this year.

The #2 person on the NCAA list is SEC champ Charlene Lipsey of LSU, who was 7th indoors.

LRC Analysis: Since we've spent a lot of our time during our NCAA preview talking about seniors who have never won NCAA titles, the fourth-fastest person in the field for 2012 is Tennessee senior Chanelle Price. Given the fact she ran 2:01.61 in HS, how many people would have bet she'd never win an NCAA title?

LRC Prediction: Kesselring is the defending champion but Mackie hasn't lost to a collegian at 800 all year so we'll stick with the hot runner Mackie.

1) Mackie 2) Kesselring

Top 10 Seasonal Best Times

Women's 1,500: Might Jordan Hasay Surprise?

With last year's champ Sheila Reid in the 5,000, the women's 1,500 has a lot of potential winners. One of  the leading contenders is indoor mile winner and last year's runner-up Lucy Van Dalen of Stony Brook. She's in good shape as shown by her 15:23.54 and she is a proven racer.

But this certainly won't be an easy cakewalk for Van Dalen. The NCAA leader by more than 2 seconds is Oklahoma State's Natalja Piliusina, who has run 4:09.51 this year. Piliusina was the NCAA runner-up last year and this year indoors at 800. Normally when someone is 2+ seconds better than everyone else, we pick them for the win, but Piliusina didn't look good in running 4:13.95 at the Occidental meet recently.

Oregon's Jordan Hasay has re-found her love for running and beat the NCAA #2 in Washington's Katie Flood at PAC-12s. Hasay, sort of like Galen Rupp, has consistently silenced her doubters. After her 15:44.87 debacle in the 5,000 at Stanford, has she found a second life back in the 1,500?

NCAA indoor 3,000 champ Emily Infeld has the third-fastest time and can't be totally discounted, but she lost the Big East title to Notre Dame's Rebecca Tracy.

LRC Prediction: This will be a big part of the telecast on ESPN U and should be a great one to watch.

 1) Van Dalen 2) Hasay 3) Tracy

Event 25  Women 1500 Meter Run
====================================================================
 2 Heats.  Advance top 5 from each heat plus next best 2 times
    American:  3:57.12  7/26/1983   Mary Slaney, Athletics West                
College Best:  3:59.90  6/7/2009    Jenny Barringer, Colorado                  
   NCAA Meet:  4:06.19  6/14/2008   Hannah England, Fla State                  
     Name                        Year School                 Seed           
===================================================================
Heat 1  Prelims
  1  Lucy Van Dalen                SR Stony Brook         4:17.03 
  2  Rebecca Tracy                 JR Notre Dame          4:16.94 
  3  Hannah Brooks                 SR Florida State       4:18.72 
  4  Jillian Smith                 SO Michigan            4:15.08 
  5  Emily Infeld                  JR Georgetown          4:19.14 
  6  Greta Feldman                 JR Princeton           4:15.00 
  7  Cory McGee                    SO Florida             4:16.36 
  8  Amanda Winslow                JR Florida State       4:19.47 
  9  Brittany Sheffey              SR Tennessee           4:17.8
 10  Sophie Curl                   SO San Francisco       4:21.68 
 11  Kristen Gillespie             SR Arkansas            4:21.24 
 12  Nicole Bowler                 SR San Francisco       4:22.26 
Heat 2  Prelims
  1  Violah Lagat                  SR Florida State       4:19.49 
  2  Becca Friday                  JR Oregon              4:16.79 
  3  Amanda Mergaert               JR Utah                4:19.23 
  4  Laura Carlyle                 SR Oregon State        4:20.32 
  5  Natalja Piliusina             SO Okla. State         4:16.61 
  6  Morgane Gay                   JR Virginia            4:20.49 
  7  Katie Flood                   SO Washington          4:17.05 
  8  Rachel Schneider              JR Georgetown          4:19.73 
  9  Laura Roxberg                 JR Missouri            4:18.81 
 10  Ashley Miller                 SR Nebraska            4:17.42 
 11  Jordan Hasay                  JR Oregon              4:16.29 
 12  Marielle Hall                 SO Texas               4:20.87                    

Women's Steeple: Colorado Wins Again

LRC Analysis: Last year, Colorado had a steepler who was a class above everyone else in Emma Coburn. Well, Coburn is redshirting to focus on the Olympic Trails but her role as heavy favorite has been taken on by her Colorado teammate in Shalaya Kipp, who was third last year. At  9:43, Kipp leads the NCAA by 8 seconds and seems to have the victory in hand.

The question is who gets second.

We're certainly not betting against Illinois State's Aisha Praught. The Mt. SAC champion came out of nowhere to be the NCAA runner-up in the mile indoors. She didn't run at the Missouri Valley Conference meet due to a hamstring issue, but ran the Regional.

Besides Praught, there are seven others who could finish anywhere from 2nd to not scoring at all. The safe pick behind Praught might be Clemson's Alyssa Kulik, who was 4th last year, but SEC champion Genevieve LaCaze has really impressed us. She has run 4:13 for 1,500 this year and won SECs in both the 1,500 and steeple. Many of the other women in the 9:50-10:00 range have 1,500 PRs of 4:18, 4:19 and 4:22.

If there is an upset for the win, it means LaCaze is the winner.

LRC Prediction: 1) Kipp 2) LaCaze 3) Praught

Women's 5,000: Sheila Reid Tries To Repeat

Defending champ Sheila Reid of Villlanova was the darling of the NCAA last year. An easy victory for her this year? Not so fast.

This year, she didn't run indoors and when she showed up outdoors she ran a PR at Mt. SAC but was only the third collegian there, as she lost to Dartmouth's Abbey D'Agostino and Stony Brook's Lucy Van Dalen (who is in the 1,500). She even ran a PR of 4:10 at Pre last week.

So what's there not to like? Her not liking the heat in Florida and collapsing at the finish after finishing third in the regional and having to be escorted off the track with a trainer.

Yes, she responded last week at Prefontaine but it's going to be hot as heck - maybe 90 - when this race is run on Saturday.

As a result, we don't think she'll repeat. As a result, who will win?

Well, Colorado coach Mark Wetmore has the fastest NCAA runner in the field in Jessica Tebo, who has run 13:19 this year and it's hard to bet against Wetmore in this type of situation. He's proven time and time again that he can get people to peak when it counts most.

Tebo has good speed as she's run 4:15 this year. That could be very important as it's going to be so hot, this race is likely to be tactical.

Dartmouth' s Abbey D'Agostino took down Jordan Hasay last year as a freshman and has run 15:23.3 this year and 4:16 and was the top collegian at Mt. SAC. She likely will be in the hunt as well. Could 2012 be the year of the Ivy League with Merber (men's 1,500), Cabral (steeple) and D'Agostino winning NCAA titles?

LRC Prediction: LetsRun.com co-founder Robert Johnson has been watching D'Agostino all year and she's really good and could win. To us it's D'Agostiono or Tebo or Reid.
We'll go with Tebo. She won PAC-12s by almost 10 seconds and the 2nd placer Kathy Kroeger of Stanford is no slouch. Plus, Wetmore is famous for peaking people when it counts. Of course, no one is perfect - anyone remember when Jenny Barringer melted down at NCAA cross-country when she was a 3:59 1,500 runner? If Reid is in the top three, we think she wins it. Maybe she was sick or something at Regionals.

1) Tebo 2) D'Agostino 3) Tuliamuk

Event 27  Women 5000 Meter Run
===============================================================================
 Final only. Random draw. Double waterfall. 2/3 on main
    American:  14:44.76  8/27/2010   Molly Huddle, Saucony                     
College Best:  15:07.64  5/2/2009    Jenny Barringer, Colorado                 
   NCAA Meet:  15:15.08  6/13/2008   Sally Kipyego, Texas Tech                 
     Name                        Year School                 Seed           
===============================================================================
Section 1  Timed Finals
  1  Allison Woodward              FR Oregon             16:17.38 
  2  Emma Bates                    FR Boise State        16:16.74 
  3  Corey Conner                  JR Maine              16:22.77 
  4  Aliphine Tuliamuk             JR Wichita State      16:16.87 
  5  Alex Kosinski                 SR Oregon             15:56.39 
  6  Megan Goethals                SO Washington         15:46.82 
  7  Jessica O'Connell             SR West Virginia      16:26.18 
  8  Abbey D'Agostino              SO Dartmouth          16:15.35 
  9  Bogdana Mimic                 JR Villanova          16:28.14 
 10  Madeline Chambers             SO Georgetown         16:23.12 
 11  Jessica Tebo                  SR Colorado           15:54.13 
 12  Charlotte FfrenchO'Carroll    JR Providence         16:23.81 
 13  Lauren Penney                 JR Syracuse           16:24.96 
 14  Sara Sutherland               SO Texas              16:18.17 
 15  Sheila Reid                   SR Villanova          16:13.47 
 16  Chelsea Reilly                SR California         16:15.89 
 17  Kayleigh Tyerman              JR Florida State      16:06.28 
 18  McKenzie Melander             SR Iowa               16:26.06 
 19  Kathleen Stevens              FR Virginia           16:26.91 
 20  Kathy Kroeger                 JR Stanford           16:16.07 
 21  Chelsea Ley                   FR Virginia           16:15.11 
 22  Elvin Kibet                   SO Arizona            16:20.88 
 23  Natosha Rogers                JR Texas A&M          15:50.13 
 24  Emily Sisson                  SO Providence         15:53.62   

Women's Team Battle: LSU Or Oregon?

Track & Field News does the best job of analyzing it. They have it being a two-team battle between LSU and Oregon.