How Many US 1500m Titles Would Nick Willis Have Won If He Was An American?
By Robert Johnson
January 21, 2021
1500-meter man Nick Willis of New Zealand has accomplished an awful lot during his career.
The 37-year-old has run 3:49.83 for the mile, 3:29.66 for 1500 and won two Olympic medals (silver in 2008 and bronze in 2016) during his long and steady career in which he has broken four minutes in the mile in each of the last 19 seasons -- itself a world record.
Considering Willis has been based in the US since 2002, a LetsRun.com messageboard poster has posed a fascinating question: MB If Nick Willis was American, how many national titles would he have won?
(For the record: Rupp and Symmonds did both win eight US titles on the track, though two of Symmonds' came indoors).
However, others aren't so convinced. An unregistered poster posting under the name of "adsfdasfasfsafadfa" thinks Willis might not have won any outdoor 1500 titles because the level of competition in the US has been pretty high in recent years, writing:
0. He gets owned by Lagat/Webb from 2004-2010. Then by Lomong/Leo from 2010-2013. Then Centro from 2014-2017 and then he isn't fastest enough to beat anyone.
Ok realistically he probably wins a couple of them in there but he doesn't have remotely enough of an advantage over webb, lagat, lomong, leo and centro to expect to win like 50% of them. Rupp could get 8 wins because in the 10k he was like 20s+ faster than the next guy."
The poster makes a great point. There have been some great 1500 runners in the US over the last 15+ years including three Olympic medallists in Leo Manzano, Bernard Lagat (Lagat won his medals for Kenya), and Matthew Centrowitz, plus 3:46 miler Alan Webb. Plus Willis is a lot like Jenny Simpson in that he's not necessarily the fastest runner out there but he's been really good at coming through with his best performances in the biggest meet of the year. He measures his effort so he places as high as possible at Worlds or the Olympics, but that might not mean he'd win a US title in June.
So I decided to go year-by-year and see if I thought Willis would have won the outdoor US 1500 title, starting in 2003 when Willis first dipped under 3:40 for 1500. Before I looked at their yearly results, I started by looking at the head-to-head career standings between Willis and the leading US guys at 1500/mile.
Head to Head at 1500/Mile (Via tilastopaja.eu - counting road miles)
Nick Willis vs Leo Manzano - Willis leads 21 to 3
Nick Willis vs Lopez Lomong - Willis leads 10 to 0
Nick Willis vs Robby Andrews - Willis leads 7 to 0
Nick Willis vs. Alan Webb - Willis lead 10 to 6 (it's 2 to 2 at 1500)
Nick Willis vs. Matthew Centrowitz - Tied at 10 wins each
Nick Willis vs Bernard Lagat - Lagat leads 18 to 8 (it's 11 to 1 at 1500)
The yearly results are interesting. There is only one year over the last 18 seasons where I'm 100% certain Willis would have won the US 1500 title. However, there are seven other years where he would have had a decent chance of doing it. And of those seven years, he would have been the betting favorite in five or six of them if we retroactively gave out odds for the US champs after the fact based on their seasonal results. Now just because you are the betting favorite that doesn't mean you'd win every year. All told, I'd say he likely would have won somewhere in the neighborhood of four to six US outdoor 1500 titles.
Take a look at how his odds look retroactively year-by-year.
Would Willis have won USAs in the 1500?
2003 - Maybe. Leaning toward yes. It's crazy that one of the best chances Willis would have had to win USAs would have come this early in his career, in a year in which a 20-year-old Willis only ran 3:36, didn't even go to Worlds, and was only 12th at NCAAs indoors (in the 3k) and outdoors (he lost his shoe in the 1500; otherwise he might have won). The US champ was Jason Lunn and the runner-up was Bryan Berryhill and Willis beat both of them head to head in Zagreb that year when all three of them ran their seasonal bests of 3:36.
2004 - No. Webb crushed him at Pre that year. That being said, Willis made the semis at the Olympics whereas Webb went out in the first round.
2005 - No. Lagat was a US citizen, but he didn't run USAs this year (he would have won it, but didn't run as he wasn't eligible for Worlds after switching allegiance from Kenya). Webb was the US champion and while his season's best of 3:33 was slower than Willis' 3:32, Webb was in great shape in 2005. Webb smoked Willis in Oslo in the mile as Webb ran 3:48 and Willis 3:53.
2006 - No. 2006 was a good year for Willis as he won Commonwealth Games gold and lowered his 1500 pb to 3:32.17 in Paris. That being said, the US champ in 2006 was Bernard Lagat, and Lagat ran 3:29 that year. He also beat Willis in Paris, running 3:31.48.
2007 - No. Willis had a limited racing schedule in 2007. While he was 10th at Worlds, he only ran 3:35 on the year. In 2007, the US champ was Alan Webb and Webb ran 3:46 in the mile and 3:30 for 1500. Bernard Lagat was only 3rd at USAs (Manzano was 2nd) but Lagat won world titles in the 1500 and 5000 that year.
2008 - Maybe. 50/50. 2008 was one of Willis's best years and the Americans weren't amazing this year. Willis was in shape early in the year as he ran 3:50.66 for the mile at Pre in June to get second. He then ended up second in the Olympics in the 1500. The US champ in 2008 was Lagat and Lagat ended up not making the Olympic final in the 1500. That being said, Lagat wasn't 100% in Beijing as he injured his Achilles between the Trials and the Olympics. A healthy Lagat beat Willis head-to-head at the pro meet in Carson, Calif., in May, and it wasn't close -- 3:35.14 to 3:35.75. Plus Lagat did great at Pre himself as he won the 2-mile in 8:12. So it's possible that Lagat would have have beaten Willis at USAs as well. (Webb was only 5th at the Olympic Trials and his best time on the year was a 3:55 mile. Leo Manzano was the US runner-up and NCAA champ but he only made the Olympic semis).
2009 - No. The US champ in 2009 was Lopez Lomong and Willis owns Lomong. Willis is undefeated against Lomong at 1500/mile (10-0). And Willis was in great shape early in 2009 as he ran a 3:53 mile indoors. So why wouldn't he have been the US outdoor champ? Because he didn't run outdoors in 2009 due to injury.
2010 - Maybe. Don't think so. Since Lomong was the US champ in 2010 and since Wills has never lost to Lomong in a 1500, it's tempting to say Willis would have won USAs in 2010. However, Willis didn't run fast that year (only 3:35) as he was focused on October's Commonwealth Games (where he earned the bronze) and skipped the summer track season. The 2010 US runner-up Manzano ran 3:50.64 in the mile and Lomong ran 3:32 in Monaco. And Willis did race and lose to three Americans in the mile at Fifth Avenue in September (Lagat, Webb and Manzano).
2011 - Maybe. Leaning toward yes. 2011 was an unusual year for Willis in that he ran pretty fast (3:51.95 in the mile but that was only 10th at Pre) and 3:31.79 for 4th in Monaco but didn't do well at Worlds (just 12th). In 2011, Matthew Centrowitz won his first US title and he went on to get third at Worlds. However, Willis beat Centro handily before Worlds in both Paris and Monaco so he might have also done so at USAs.
2012 - Maybe. Leaning toward yes. The US champ in 2012 was Leo Manzano, who ended up winning Olympic silver. Since Willis was only 9th at the Olympics, one might think he wouldn't have beaten Manzano at USAs -- but Willis beat Manzano handily at both the Pre Classic right before the Trials and the London DL meet right after them. Centrowitz was 4th at the Olympics in 2012 but wasn't in great form earlier in the year so we imagine Willis would have beaten him at USAs.
2013 - Unlikely. Willis only made the semis of Worlds in 2013 and only ran 3:34. The US runner-up Manzano ran 3:33 (and also made the semis of Worlds) while the US champ Centrowitz ran 3:33 and won silver at Worlds.
2014 - Yes. Manzano won USAs and ran his pb of 3:30.98 that year in Monaco. But Willis beat Manzano in all five of their meetings that year, including Monaco, where Willis broke 3:30 for the first time (3:29.91).
2015 - Most likely. Centrowitz was in great form early in 2015 as he was 2nd at Pre and then won USAs in DOMINANT fashion by 1.60 seconds and then ran his 1500 pb of 3:30 in Monaco. But Willis ran his 1500 pb of 3:29 in Monaco and then beat Centrowitz again at Worlds (6th versus 8th). Plus Willis was 2nd in the 5000 at the NY DL meet in 13:29 when Ben True won.
2016 - No. Centrowitz won the Olympic Trials in a USATF championship record of 3:34.09 and then won Olympic gold. Centrowitz also won gold (and Willis bronze) at World Indoors.
2017 - Most likely. Robby Andrews won the US title in 2017 and Nick Willis has never lost to Robby Andrews in any race in his life. He's a perfect 7-0 against Andrews. Of course, a slow tactical race (USAs was won in 3:43) would benefit a guy with Andrews' 800 background. Neither Andrews or the US runner-up, Matthew Centrowitz, made the finals of Worlds, whereas Willis was 8th. Centro did finish one spot ahead of Willis at Monaco (9th versus 10th) as both ran 3:34, though he was nowhere near 100% healthy at USAs.
2018 - No. Centrowitz ran won USAs and ran 3:53 at Pre and 3:31 in Monaco. Willis' seasonal bests were 3:35/3:53.
2019 - No. Willis didn't run faster than 3:36.99 on the year -- a time that US champ Craig Engels beat seven times.
2020 - No. USAs weren't held.
What do you think? Post your thoughts on our fan forum/messageboard.
MB: If Nick Willis was American, how many National titles would he have won?