September 21, 2013
At LetsRun, we feel that the anticipation of a big event is close to half the fun so we like to
preview races as it’s hard to get excited about a race if you don’t have expectations as to what you are going to see.
So we decided to try to do a quick preview of tomorrow’s men’s 5th Avenue Road Mile presented
by Nissan in New York. However, handicapping tomorrow’s race on the men’s side is very difficult.
Road miles are inherently harder to predict than track miles (did anyone really think Garrett
Heath would win last week’s road mile in the UK?) particularly when they are at the end of the season and some guys are losing their form. What makes predicting tomorrow’s race even harder is there are so many fast guys in it.
We’ve done a little research and 12 of the 19 entrants have run under 3:37 for 1500 this year.
Below is tomorrow’s 5th Avenue Mile field listed in order of their 2013 1500 seasonal bests.
|The 2013 5th Avenue Mile Men’s Field|
|Ran||1500 SB||Athlete||Country||Date of SB||Comment|
|1||3:32.57||Nick Willis||NZL||8-Sep||Former Olympic silver medallist, has run the fastest of anyone all year and just came into form after mid-season break/injury.|
|2||3:33.14||Leo Manzano||USA||6-Jul||Very good in races where he has a shot to win, very motivated after disappointing worlds, just ran much better and got 2nd
in Great North Mile
|3||3:33.23||David Torrence||USA||8-Sep||Ran 3:33 less than 2 weeks ago.|
|4||3:34.12||Garrett Heath||USA||6-Jul||Shocked the world with road mile win last week in UK.|
|5||3:34.55||Lopez Lomong||USA||6-Jul||1st race since August 16th (semis at Worlds).|
|6||3:34.55||Nick Symmonds||USA||19 Ju||World Championship silver medallist said he felt like he was just starting his season in Aug and he proved it with 1:43.03 for 800 on 9/6.|
|7||3:35.25||Ryan Gregson||AUS||9-Mar||2nd half of 2013 has been a huge struggle for Gregson. Only 7th in Road mile last week.|
|8||3:35.27||Will Leer||USA||6 Ju||Been racing well in Europe late into season. 3000 pb in September.|
|9||3:35.48||Craig Miller||USA||6-Jul||3:54 road mile (behind Blankenship) earlier this month.|
|10||3:36.34||Evan Jager||USA||17-May||5th in Worlds in steeple then ran 13:02 in early September for 5000. Great recent form.|
|11||3:36.36||Bernard Lagat||USA||6-Jul||Ran 12:58.99 on September 6th.|
|12||3:36.61||Matt Elliott||USA||27-Jul||Story book season but only 8th in Minnesota mile earlier this month.|
|13||3:37.03||Ben Blankenship||USA||16-Jul||Beat Leer to win Falmouth Mile, beat Miller to win Grandma’s Minnesota Mile on road a few weeks ago in 3:53.|
|14||3:37.18||Collis Birmingham||AUS||25-Jun||Poor recent form. Only 7:57 in Rieti and 13:44 in Brussels, Ben True is still mad this guy got into Brussels over him.|
|15||3:38.57||Ryan Hill||USA||6 Ju||3:54 indoor miler was NCAA runner-up in mile, but struggled in last race in Brussels (13:43)|
|16||3:39.14||Pablo Solares||MEX||1-Jul||Shannon Rowbury’s fiance set SB in July and hasn’t raced much since.|
|17||3:39.28||Dan Huling||USA||17-May||Has 13:21 steeple sb this year.|
|18||3:40.97||Brett Robinson||AUS||9-Jun||5000 WC finallist has 13:18 pb this year.|
|19||None||Ben St. Lawrence||AUS||None||31-year old ran 13:10 this year. No 1500s but has a 3:39.6h pb from 2010.|
We started our preview initially for our own sake as we wanted to come up with poll of 3-4 guys
to put on the front page. However, after doing our research we can’t limit the poll to just 3-4 guys. If you’ve run 3:33 or faster for 1500 this year, you have to be in the poll. If you’ve run 3:34.12 and just won a big road mile you have to bein the poll and if your name is Nick Symmonds or Bernard Lagat, you have to be in the poll.
We know even limiting it to six is going to anger some guys but please tell us who you think is
going to win.
echo $php_poll->poll_process(49); // x = Poll ID
As for us, we say go with the in-form guy – Nick Willis – although first (or last) for Leo Manzano
wouldn’t surprise us. Motivation is big at the end of the season and with no shoe sponsor, Leo will certainly be motivated.
With 1500 silver medallist Jenny Simpson in the field, there is clear favorite in the women’s
race although the field includes six women under 4:10 this year including 4 of the 10 fastest.
|The 2013 5th Avenue Mile Women’s Field|
|Rank||1500 SB||Athlete||Country||Date of 1500 SB||Comment|
|1||04:00.48||Jenny Simpson||USA||19-Jul||World silver medallist. Need we say more?|
|2||04:01.28||Shannon Rowbury||USA||19-Jul||4th in Brussels in 1500 post-Worlds in Brussels ahead of
|3||04:01.48||Gabriele Anderson||USA||19-Jul||10th fastest woman in world in 2013.|
|4||04:03.38||Hannah England||GBR||1-Jun||4th at Worlds, 3rd in road mile last weekend.|
|5||04:04.60||Katie Mackey||USA||17-May||Big year but her pb came in May.|
|6||04:04.82||Zoe Buckman||AUS||13-Aug||Made Worlds final – 7th.|
The field also includes 2011 World #1 Morgan Uceny who got a big
win in the road mile in
the UK last weekend. We’ll be very interested to see how she stacks up here against Simpson, Rowbury and company. Full women’s field here.
LRC Prediction: Simpson FTW.
Prize money is as follows:
NYRR Road Mile Championships (NYRR membership for at least three months prior to race day is required)