2012 Women's Olympic 1,500 Preview: Is Anyone Favored In This Wide-Open Affair And What About The Americans?
By LetsRun.com
August 3, 2012
Editor's note: The women's 1,500 starts on Monday at 6:05 am ET. The semis are at 2:45 pm ET on Wednesday. The final is at 3:55 pm ET on Friday.
The women's 1,500 is a wide-open affair. Good luck predicting this one. The year 2012 is completely different than last year. 2011 belonged to the Americans, as Jenny Simpson won gold and Morgan Uceny was world ranked #1 and no one broke 4:00 on the year. This year, eight entrants have already gone sub-4, including two 3:56s and a 3:57 (and we're ignoring the world leader by Mariem Selsouli, as she was booted for doping) and the highest American on the 2012 world list is Uceny, but she's just the 10th-fastest entrant in terms of 2012 times.
Uceny isn't the only successful person from 2011 who isn't seeded high. The medallists from last year's World Championships are all ranked much lower in terms of 2012 times.
Gold - Jenny Simpson #27 (4:05.17 SB - PR 3:59.90)
Silver - Hannah England #17 (4:04.05 SB - PR 4:01.89)
Bronze - Natalia Rodriguez #47 (No Mark - PR 3:59.51)
So who is favored? It's really hard to say.
Before we break down the leading contenders, take a look at the top 11 seeds based on 2012 times.
Abeba Aregawi ETH - 22 years old - 3:56.54
Asli Cakir TUR - 26 years old - 3:56.62
Genzebe Dibaba ETH - 21 years old - 3:57.77
Ekaterina Kostetskaya RUS - 25 years old - 3:59.28
Ekaterina Marynova RUS - 26th Bday is Monday - 3:59.49
Btissam Lakhouad MAR - 31 years old - 3:59.65 (3:59.35 PR)
Hellen Obiri KEN - 22 years old - 3:59.68
Tatyana Tomashova RUS - 27 years old - 3:59.71 (3:56.91 PR)
Anna Mishchenko UKR - 28 years old - 4:01.16
Morgan Uceny USA -27 years old - 4:01.59 (4:00.06 PR)
Lisa Dobriskey GBR- 28 years old - 4:02.13 (3:59.50 PR)
The leading entrant in terms of 2012 marks is Ethiopia's Abeba Aregawi. The 22-year-old is a real talent as she went undefeated indoors last year and ran 4:01 and has run 3:56.54 this year. With wins in Rome and Oslo, there wasn't a whole lot to not like about her until her last race, when she was just third in Paris. But one of the women who beat there was exposed as a cheat. The only one who beat her in Paris but hasn't been banned from London is Turkey's Asli Cakir. However, Cakir herself was banned in the past and is back after a two-year doping ban.
Our biggest concern with Aregawi is she only ran 3:58 in Monaco, whereas she ran 3:56 earlier in the year. Now 3:58 is still super-elite, but one has to be on top of their game to win Olympic gold.
Cakir might win but we really hope she doesn't. Not much to say about the 2012 Europrean champ other than her PR was 4:02.17 prior to Paris.
Tirunesh Dibaba's little sister- 21-year-old Genzebe - was the revelation of the indoor season as she went undefeated and won Worlds. Outdoors, she opened up with a stunning 3:57.77 win in Shanghai on May 19th to establish herself as an early Olympic favorite. But by May 31st in Rome, she was down to 4:00.85 and by June 7th in Oslo, she was running just 4:03.28. She hasn't raced since June 7th. Has the two-month break been enough for her to recharge her batteries or did the youngster mis-time her peak totally? We'll find out soon enough.
Of the Russians, 25-year-old Ekaterina Kostetskaya is the leading contender. She has great wheels as she was 5th at Worlds in the 800 last year. This year, she has once again run 1:57 in the 800 (she was third in the Russian 800 Champs) but has seemingly shifted her focus to the 1,500. But other than the Russian Champs, she's never really run an elite level 1,500 (She was a DNF in Brussels last year).
Kostetskaya is an interesting story as she used to run the hurdles, attended HS in the US, and even ran the 800 at NCAAs back in 2007. For more info on her, see an IAAF bio on her or read this message board thread). If you are good enough to win the super-competitive Russian Champs, you are good enough to win here. But the big question mark for is how will she handle the rounds? When she entered the Russian Champs in the 1,500 last year, many viewed it as a joke as she was viewed as someone who had moved up to the 800.
But Kosteskaya certainly has the genetics to be good at 1,500. Her mom was the 1982 European champion in 1,500m, and three times national champion in 1,500m and 3,000m and has a 3:54.23 1,500 PR. Yes, 3:54.23 (#9 all-time).
The other two Russians have both gone sub-4 this year. The third placer at the Russian Trials was 2003 and 2005 World Champ (and 2004 silver medallist) Tatyana Tomashova, who is back from a drug ban. It would be much better for the sport if she didn't win.
Kenya's best hope Helen Obiri won World Indoors this year in the 3,000 but a win here would be a big, big shock as she was just 4th in Oslo and 7th in Paris.
What About The USA?
Coming into the year, if we told you the Americans would be lucky to get a bronze, you wouldn't have believed us, but that's the case. 2007 bronze medallist Shannon Rowbury and 2012 gold medallist Jenny Simpson haven't looked great all year long. But Simpson was only fourth in her last European 1,500 before Worlds last year and she ended up golden. This year, she was second in at the London DL and beat Uceny. Can she pull another stunner? We really doubt it. After that London DL, she ran 8:48
for 3,000, which isn't good at all.
Early this year, 2011 world-ranked #1 Morgan Uceny was running better than she was last year and she won the US Trials with ease, but then she put up a clunker in London, where she was just fifth behind Simpson.
The winner of the London DL meet was two time world champ Maryam Jamal, who got a late start to the season. After her win in London, we wondered if she might be back to her old form, but then she only was 8th in the 800 in Monaco in 2:00.76.
LRC Prediction: 1) Kostetskaya 2) Aregawi 3) Uceny
QT #1: The reason why so many people lost faith in Simpson is because she was so, so bad in the 800 in New York (2:05.79). Her 1,500s this year haven't been too bad (never worse than third), but her most recent 3,000 doesn't give us confidence. She's good with rounds, however.
QT #2: The Uceny pick in #3 is certainly biased, but she deserves a break after likely being cost a gold by a trip.
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