What To Look For In Men's Steeplechase Final at the 2012 US Olympic Track & Field Trials

by LetsRun.com
June 27, 2012

More: LRC Steeple Prelim Recaps: All The Favorites Get Through As US Champ Billy Nelson Barely Makes The Final

The favorites are pretty much locks to make the team, but behind them things could be interesting in the fight for that third Olympic spot.

But before we start the previews, we want to ask why the men's final is on Thursday and the women's on Friday? We're assuming USATF wants to mimic the Olympic schedule, but that is impossible here since in London there will only be one day between the prelim and final for both men and women (the rest days here don't allow that). We guess maybe they want to have the women's steeple on Friday since there are no other track finals that day and it helps fill out the schedule a bit, but why not put the men there too? Thursday is packed as far as distance events go with the prelims of the 1500 and the women's and men's 5000 finals. If someone knows the real reason email us.

The Field:

In the men's steeplechase, 6 out of the 14 in the final have the 8:23.10 "A" standard. Those 6 are:

2012 Best Time
8:19.14 Donn Cabral
8:20.81 Dan Huling (8:13.29 in 2010)
8:20.86 Kyle Alcorn
8:20.90 Evan Jager
8:21.42 Billy Nelson (8:17.27 last year)
8:26.08 Ben Bruce (8:19.10 last year)

After those 6, there are another 4 who have ran under 8:30 this year and 1 from last year.

8:26.51 Donnie Cowart
8:27.77 David Adams
8:28.90 Craig Forys
8:29.29 Augustus Maiyo (from the prelim)
8:23.36 Brian Olinger (2011)

In our minds, the prospective winner of this race is a lock - there is a tentative favorite for second - and the third spot is going to come down to a fight between someone who has the "A" standard.

1. Who gets first and second?

Evan Jager in our minds is a lock unless he falls.

Despite the fact, this is only the 4th steeple of his career, he has to be the favorite to win as he ran 8:20.90 in his second steeplechase ever at Occidental after doing a face plant on the last water jump. He was only 4th there, but he had the lead before he fell. In his prelim on Monday he stayed towards the front the entire race and then cranked it down to win the heat easily.

Aftewards, Jager told us he thinks he's in the best shape of his life and that's saying a lot as people need to remember this is a guy who ran 13:22 at age 22 and he regularly works out with Olympic 10k team member Matt Tegenkamp. Jager also said he hopes he gets to run a 5000 later this year and we can understand why as we bet he'd break 13:10 in it. No one else in the field can come close to that on the flat - and Jager seemingly has good hurdle form.

Jager is a class above everyone else in this field in terms of absolute fitness and we have no doubt he'll make the team and win unless he falls.

So who gets second?

In the prelims, Princeton's Donn Cabral, who became the 2nd fastest NCAA steepler in history behind the great Henry Rono by winning in Occidental in 8:19.14, didn't look as easy as he came from back in the pack with a fast last lap to get second to Jager in the first heat.

At one point Cabral was so far back, we were wondering "What the hell is wrong with Cabral?" but when we talked to him after the race he said all was fine and that he was just having trouble moving up as every time he tried to move up he bumped into a lot of traffic.

But Cabral showed great closing speed in anchoring Princeton to two victories at Penn Relays this year and he's run 8:19 this year and won NCAA's easily, so we have to go with him for second.

2. Who will fight for third?

On paper the battle for the last Olympic spot should be between the other 4 guys who have the "A" standard: Alcorn, Bruce, Huling, and Nelson. Nelson is the defending US champion, but running is about "what have you done for me lately" and he looked awful in his prelim as he was the last guy to make the final. Admittedly, in the past, another Colorado alum, Adam Goucher, once scraped into the finals of an Olympic trials (in the 5000 in 2000) and made an Olympic team but we aren't counting on history to repeat itself.

So we're going to count him out. Looking at the other 3 who have the "A", Huling and Alcorn were 2-3 at US Champs last year and Bruce got to go to Worlds as Alcorn and 4th placer Joshua McAdams both lacked the "A". It is hard to choose between these three. Alcorn made the World Championships team in 2009 and his PR is 8:20.86 from Occidental. Bruce was on the Worlds team last year and has a 8:19.10 PR. His SB is just 8:26.08, but he's only raced three steeples this year and he won 2 out of 3 of them as he's seemingly purposely avoided matchups with the other top contenders. But we think Huling has the edge on these two. He's second in the US this year, is the 2010 US champ, and has the fastest PR of anyone in the field at 8:13.29 (#5 US all-time). He also looked good winning his heat over Bruce and Alcorn.

3. Can any of the guys without the "A" standard make the team?

For the 8 guys in this race who don't have the "A" standard there is some good news. The steeplechase is rarely tactical and even if the pace starts a bit slow it's not as hard to go to the front and lead since the pace is much slower than a flat race. So maybe one of these guys without the "A" can have a good day and get under that 8:23.10 mark. The bad news is even if they do they still have to be top 3 and the 6 with the "A" standard will be tough to beat. The guy with the best chance of doing this and is our darkhorse pick to make the team is Brian Olinger. Olinger barely missed the "A" last year when he ran 8:23.36 and has an 8:19.29 PR. He only ran 2 steeples this year before the Trials as he said it wasn't until after Payton Jordan (where he ran 27:50 in the 10k) that he decided he would be trying the steeple this year. He focused on the marathon for the 2012 Trials in January where he was a DNF, but said "I took good things from that. There were places I went in training I had never been". Over distance training seems to work well for Max King, maybe it could get Olinger an Olympic spot.

LRC Prediction: 1) Jager (incredibly confident) 2) Cabral (very confident in this pick until lap 5 of the prelims) 3) Huling

Full Start List:

 Lane Name Affiliation
 1 Augustus Maiyo Unattached
 2 Kyle Alcorn Nike
 3 Daniel Huling Reebok
 4 Donald Cowart Ragged Mountain Racing
 5 Cory Leslie Ohio State
 6 Donald Cabral Princeton
 7 Max King Central Oregon Running Klub
 8 Benjamin Bruce adidas/McMillan Elite
 9 Craig Forys Unattached
 10 William Nelson New Balance
 11 David Adams Team Nebraska
 12 Brian Olinger Reebok
 13 Evan Jager Nike / Oregon TC Elite
 14 Joshua McAdams New Balance

 

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