Renato Canova Says Men's Marathon World Record Will Fall This Spring
And He Says World Record Holder Patrick Makau Is At Best The 4th Best Marathoner On The Planet
By David Monti.
(c) 2011 Race Results Weekly, all rights reserved
(03-Jan) -- Renato Canova, perhaps the world's most highly regarded
marathon coach, predicted in an interview that Patrick Makau's marathon
world record would fall in the spring, and that as many as eight
athletes would break the 2:04 mark next year (Editor's Note: The full video interview is embedded on the right).
"What I am sure is that next year after London Marathon the record is no
more Patrick Makau, and the record is under 2:03," Canova told Italian
blogger Alberto Stretti in a video interview while in Bolzano for the
Boclassic road race on New Year's Eve.
Canova, who coaches world record holder Moses Mosop and two-time world
marathon champion Abel Kirui amongst others, said that it was more
likely that Makau's mark would be surpassed in Rotterdam than in London.
"Not in London," Canova said wearing his trademark sunglasses. "The
first attempt is in Rotterdam. Moses Mosop to go Rotterdam for running
the world record one week before London. And, if he has some problem
and it is not possible, in any case, in London there is Wilson Kipsang,
there is the same Makau and I think that it is possible to try. If this
year, Emmanuel Mutai ran 2:04:40, if the conditions are OK it is
possible to also try in London, faster than 2:03:38."
Canova said that the Rotterdam field would also feature the marathon
debut of Kenyan Sammy Kitwara (58:48 half-marathon personal best), and
the first full marathon attempt from gun to tape of Peter Cheruiyot
Kirui, the man who helped pace both Makau at Berlin to 2:03:38 and
Wilson Kipsang in Frankfurt to 2:03:42 (after pacing, Kirui decided to
finish in Frankfurt and clocked 2:06:31 in his debut). Kirui was the
Kenyan 10,000m champion in 2011 and finished sixth at the IAAF World
Championships.
"Peter Kirui is another athlete who can run under 2:04, immediately," Canova said.
When asked to name the world's best marathon runners, he cited Kenya's
Geoffrey Mutai, the Boston and New York winner, as currently the best.
"If I give my personal list, number one is Geoffrey Mutai," Canova said.
"Geoffrey was the only one to win in two Majors with the best time,
ever in Boston." He continued: "Number two exactly I put Moses Mosop
and Wilson Kipsang, and after that I put behind Patrick Makau and Abel
Kirui, who has a possibility to improve a lot looking at the training he
had. And, behind yet Emmanuel Mutai, looking at, and also waiting for,
Kitwara and Peter Kirui. At the end, eight people all 100% very much
under 2:04, and some of them under 2:03."
Wilson Kipsang might have beaten Makau's world record in Frankfurt,
Canova said, except that the final section of that race has two many
turns and an indoor finish which prevents the lead vehicle from going
all the way to the finish line.
"Frankfurt for Wilson Kipsang was faster than Berlin because...
Frankfurt in the last kilometer is very complicated with a lot of turns,
and is not possible to have the watch (clock) in front," Canova
posited. "So, practically, Wilson was not able to understand exactly
the pace."
Amongst the women, Canova said that Liliya Shobukhova was most likely to
win the Olympic gold medal in the marathon next summer, citing her
abilities to both control her pace and run in rising and higher
temperatures.
"About the women, I have several women under my control that can look
for a medal at the Olympics. But honestly, the Shobukhova I saw in
Chicago in my opinion is unbeatable if there is the same shape. She was
running the last half in 68:55, the last two kilometers in 6:52 with a
temperature of 29 degrees (Celsius) and very high humidity. I don't
think anybody else can run that fast."
While acknowledging the accomplishments of world half-marathon record
holder Mary Keitany (who is trained by rival Italian coach Gabriele
Nicola), Canova said that observers should be looking at other Kenyan
women, too, for good marks in the New Year.
"I'm not sure, completely, that Mary Keitany is the strongest Kenyan,"
he said. "We need to see the progress of Florence Kiplagat, especially
(2:19:44 PB), and to look also what is happening in Dubai (in January)
with Lucy Kabuu (where the 67:04 half-marathoner will make her marathon
debut)."
Canova was not bullish on Ethiopia's chances to dominate the marathon in
2012. In particular, he said that the coaching in that country at the
marathon distance was far behind the level in Kenya right now.
"Technically speaking, we have now a different value of the training for
marathon between the Kenyans and Ethiopians," he said, naming Tesgaye
Kebede as that nation's top marathoner. "Kenyans are very much more
advanced with methodology than Ethiopians, exactly the opposite of what
happened years ago when we were speaking about the 5000 and 10,000
meters." He added: "Sometimes there are cycles in the countries."
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