LetsRun.com's Preview Of Day 2 Of The 2011 NCAA Outdoor Track & Field Championships

*Live Video Here *Live Results

By LetsRun.com
June 8, 2011

Day 2 of the 2011 edition of the Outdoor NCAA Track and Field Championships in Des Moines, Iowa will feature the 1,500 semis for both women and men, as well as the women's steeplechase finals, before finishing with arguably the greatest collegiate 10,000 final in collegiate history. We break down all of the mid-d and distance action for you below.

(Please note that all times listed here are for people not in Des Moines and are EST times).

7:00 PM: Women's 1,500 Semis: Hasay Or Reid?

2010 NCAA Outdoor Results
1 Charlotte Browning SR Florida 4:15.84 10
2 Gabriele Anderson SR Minnesota 4:16.25 8

3 Jordan Hasay FR Oregon 4:16.43 6
4 Sheila Reid SO Villanova 4:16.66 5
5 Pilar McShine SR Florida State 4:16.72 4
6 Karly Hamric SR West Virginia 4:17.78 3
7 Lauren Bonds SR Kansas 4:18.06 2

8 Lucy Van Dalen JR Stony Brook-SUNY 4:18.42 1
9 Keri Bland JR West Virginia 4:19.98
10 Katie Follett SR Washington 4:20.19
11 Alex Kosinski JR Oregon 4:20.93
12 Brenda Martinez SR Riverside 4:25.60

2011 NCAA Indoor Mile Results (Prelim/Final)
1 Jordan Hasay SO Oregon 4:39.41 4:33.01
2 Kate Van Buskirk SR Duke 4:35.52 4:33.71
3 Zoe Buckman SR Oregon 4:35.47 4:33.76
4 Anne Kesselring SO Oregon 4:36.41 4:34.96
5 Amanda Winslow SO Florida State 4:38.30 4:35.16
6 Keri Bland SR West Virginia 4:40.15 4:35.24
7 Caroline King JR Boston College 4:39.51 4:36.00
8 Emma Coburn JR Colorado 4:36.99 4:36.08
9 Ashley Verplank SO North Carolina 4:36.87 4:36.17
10 Cory McGee FR Florida 4:40.11 4:41.52

Sheila Reid or Jordan Hasay?

When analyzing the women's 1,500, that is the question that keeps popping up in our heads. Indoors, the duo put on quite a show as Reid got the best of Hasay in the DMR but Hasay turned the tables on her in the 3,000. Outdoors, we must admit we are giving the edge to Hasay, as she has better seasonal bests at 1,500 and 800 5000.

In the 1,500, there are three women who have run under 4:12 this year. Hasay (4:10.28) and Reid (4:11.85) are two of the three. The other is Sacramento's State Lea Wallace (4:11.31). But Wallace is trying the 800/1,500 double, so we're ruling her out for the 1,500 win. Of course, Hasay and Reid are both doing the 1,500/5,000 double, so maybe we shouldn't count out Wallace.

LRC Prediction: 1) Hasay 2) Reid

7:15 PM: Men's 1,500 Semis: Indoor Champ And NCAA Leader Miles Batty Is Not The Favorite In Our Minds

2010 NCAA Outdoor Results
1 Andrew Wheating SR Oregon 3:47.94 10
2 A.J. Acosta JR Oregon 3:48.01 8
3 Matthew Centrowitz SO Oregon 3:48.08 6
4 Jack Bolas SR Wisconsin 3:48.21 5
5 Jeff See SR Ohio State 3:48.37 4
6 Lee Emanuel SR New Mexico 3:48.61 3
7 Craig Miller SR Wisconsin 3:48.85 2
8 Mark Matusak SR California 3:48.91 1

9 Dylan Ferris SO Stanford 3:48.95
10 Kyle Merber SO Columbia 3:49.75
11 Riley Masters SO Maine 3:51.37
12 Daniel Clark SR Notre Dame 3:51.87

2011 NCAA Indoor Results
1   Miles Batty JR  BYU  3:59.49
2  Chris O'Hare    SO  Tulsa   3:59.62
3  Ryan Foster SR  Penn State  4:00.17
4  Dumisane Hlaselo    JR  Florida 4:00.97
5  Erik van Ingen  SR  Binghamton  4:01.25 
6  Jeff Thode  SO  Iowa    4:01.73
7  Michael Hammond JR  Virginia Tech   4:01.80
8  James Cameron   SO  Washington  4:01.88
9  Riley Masters   JR  Maine   4:02.04

10 Duncan Phillips JR  Arkansas    4:06.37

The men's metric mile is always one of the more glamorous events at NCAAs. With 10 of the 12 finalists from last year gone, one might think it's an inexperienced field, but 8 of 10 finalists from indoors return.

In our view, we think there are only a few guys who can win.

The Leading Contenders

1) Dorian Ulrey - Arkansas
Pros:
Best PR of anyone in the field at 3:35.23, which earned him a trip to the 2009 World Championships. Think about that, he made the WC team two years ago and the US is loaded with 1,500 talent. He seemingly is coming on at the right time, as after losing a few early season meets, he completed the incredibly tough 1,500/800 double at the SEC meet. No one else in the field did a double that tough at their conference meet.

Cons: In our minds, there is nothing to not like about Ulrey except for being reminded of the fact that he wasn't able to win NCAAs in 2009 when he ended up running 3:35 that year.

2) Matt Centrowitz - Oregon
Pros:
The guy blew everyone away in his regional race, winning by a ridiculous 2+ seconds. That right there might make him the favorite in our eyes. He's undefeated on the year at 1,500 and won the PAC-10 by more than .5 of a second.

Cons: Never has really been close to winning an NCAA title before.

3) Miles Batty - BYU
Pros: The indoor champ leads all NCAA runners this year with his 3:36.25. That is the #1 time by more than 3 seconds.

Cons: The pros make him sound unbeatable, but he was beaten by a 5k guy, Mark Amirault, at Penn Relays. Is he past his peak?

4) Matthew Gibney - Villanova
Pros:
Gibney has proven twice at Penn Relays that if the pace is slow, he is incredibly hard to beat. He's very lightly raced and definitely not headed in the wrong direction.

Cons: Despite his Penn Relays success, he's never scored at NCAAs. been higher than 5th at NCAAs.

5) Dumisane Hlaselo - Florida (click here for a nice profile on him)
Pros: The South African junior record holder ran 3:38 before showing up at Florida this year. He's lightly raced as well, as he missed the SEC meet outdoors reportedly as people looked into his eligibility with an injury. A number of 1,500 runners have won the event in their first try in recent years (Leo Manzano in 2005, German Fernandez in 2009).

Cons: Hard to know what type of fitness he's in given his light outdoor schedule.

Others: We sure a lot of people think the indoor runner-up, Chris O'Hare of Tulsa, might win or last year's runner-up AJ Acosta or indoor 3rd placer Ryan Foster of Penn State, but we just don't see that happening.

LRC Prediction: In our minds, Gibney, Centrowitz or Ulrey will win this thing. Centrowitz looked unbeatable at the West regionals and coach Vin Lananna has a proven track record of getting his guys ready for this meet. That being said, it's really hard to bet against Ulrey. How does a 3:35 guy who is on fire lose? But then again, he wasn't able to outkick Fernandez as a freshman - the same year Ulrey ran 3:35. Gibney is more of a wild card / longshot pick for us.

1) Ulrey 2) Centrowitz

8:30 PM: Women's Steeple Semis: Should Be No Contest For Coburn

All week long, we've had a hard time predicting the winner of all the middle distance and distance events. At last, we have a gimme. Colorado junior Emma Coburn will win the 2011 NCAA title. Coburn, who was 8th indoors in the mile, has run 9:40.51 this year, whereas only two other women have broken 10:00 all year. Coburn has nearly 13 seconds on the next best runner, which means she'd need a huge blowup to lose or another runner would need a monumental breakthrough to win. We don't think either is likely. Thirteen seconds is nearly two seconds per lap.

The question is who will get 2nd - Kansas' Rebeka Stowe (9:53.12) or Virginia's Stephanie Garcia (9:55.10).

We gotta go with Garcia, as she's got a better 1,500 PR of 4:18 to Stowe's 4:25 and we think the steeple in many ways is a deceptively short event.

LRC Prediction: 1) Coburn 2) Garcia

2010 NCAA Outdoor Results
1 Bridget Franek SR Penn State 9:38.86 10
2 Emma Coburn SO Colorado 9:51.86 8
3 Ashley Higginson JR Princeton 9:52.73 6
4 Sarah Pease JR Indiana 9:56.91 5
5 Shalaya Kipp FR Colorado 9:59.37 4
6 Shelby Greany FR Providence 10:00.88 3
7 Kristen Hemphill SR Colorado State 10:07.40 2
8 Marie Lawrence SO Washington 10:10.60 1
9 Rebeka Stowe SO Kansas 10:14.92
10 Jennifer Dunn SO Florida State 10:15.91
11 Winrose Karunde JR Texas Tech 10:21.83
12 Sarah Klaczynski SR Purdue 10:22.59

13 Eva Krchova FR San Francisco 10:27.00
14 Hannah Moen SO Arizona 10:31.31

2011 NCAA Leading Times
1   Coburn, Emma    JR-3    Colorado    9:40.51
2   Stowe, Rebeka   JR-3    Kansas    9:53.12
3   Garcia, Stephanie   SR-4    Virginia    9:55.10
4   Kipp, Shalaya   SO-2    Colorado    10:03.37
5   Michel, Claire  SR-4    Oregon    10:04.65
6   Kulik, Alyssa   JR-3    Clemson    10:05.51
7   Krchova, Eva    SO-2    San Francisco    10:05.53
8   Bodinson, Klara     SO-2    SMU    10:06.63
9   Thomas, Keara   SR-4    Charlotte    10:09.50
10  Traynor, Nicol  JR-3    Richmond    10:11.20

    

9:50 PM: Men's 10,000 Final: Chelanga, Korir Or Sambu?
Day two of the championships will end with a spectacular men's 10,000 that features three Kenyan runners - Stephen Sambu of Arizona, Leonard Korir of Iona and Sam Chelanga of Liberty - with personal bests under 27:30. One of those men will win, the question is which one?

Before we get to trying to answer that question, we want everyone to realize how special this race is. Only four men have ever broken 27:30 in collegiate history and three of them are racing on Thursday night in Des Moines (the fourth is former Washington State great Henry Rono).

Who Will Win?
Indoors, when the three all toed the line fresh at NCAAs in the 5,000, it was Korir that came out on top. However, outdoors, it was Sambu who was the top collegian in the 10,000 at Stanford, running 27:28 to Korir's 27:29.

Chelanga, who didn't race at Stanford but ran 27:08 last year, can't be ignored, however, as he's won three straight NCAA crowns over the 10,000-meter distance, two in cross-country and last year on the track when he dominated and won by 18 seconds. Chelanga generally likes to try to break people and run away from them early. However, it's hard to do that to two runners of Korir's and Sambu's quality. Quite honestly, the three are so close to each other it's hard to pick between them. It's almost a complete coin flip.

But we have to make a prediction. We guess we'll rule Sambu out since he didn't advance in the 5,000 out in the West Regional. Now it's quite possible Sambu may have not wanted to advance and bagged the race on purpose, but again we have to pick someone to win, so we are nitpicking between three studs. Korir won indoors at 5,000 and it probably makes sense to pick him outdoors, but we think Chelanga deserves to get the nod for sentimental reasons, so we are going to go with him.

One of the greatest runners in NCAA history, the collegiate record holder at 10,000, deserves to go out on top in the 10,000. If he wins, it will be because he's incredibly lightly raced outdoors. The guy supposedly has been racing lightly so he can go to Europe after the season and tear it up over there - so lightly that he didn't even run his conference meet. Hopefully fresh legs result in him breaking Sambu and Korir with a series of surges.

Another sub-plot is who will be the first American in the race. Last year's 3rd-placer Jake Riley of Stanford is the top American returner. However, he was just 4th in the PAC-10 this year. Two of his Stanford teammates beat him in that race in indoor 3k champion Elliott Heath and Chris Derrick. Derrick got the best of Heath at PAC-10s, so expect him to do it again here. The only other guy who might get the honor would be former Foot Locker champ Mike Fout of Florida State, who is finally showing the form that led him to HS glory. Fout may have gotten the best of Derrick in HS, but Derrick has had a much better collegiate career and we expect that to continue on Thursday.

LRC Prediction: Chelanga ends his college career in style as Chris Derrick gets "FA" honors.

2010 NCAA Outdoor Results
1 Sam Chelanga JR Liberty 28:37.40 10
2 John Kosgei SR Oklahoma State 28:55.93 8

3 Jake Riley JR Stanford 28:57.41 6
4 Mohammed Ahmed FR Wisconsin 28:57.44 5
5 Kiel Uhl SR Iowa State 28:58.55 4

6 Joe Bosshard FR Colorado 28:59.87 3
7 Ben Cheruiyot SO Auburn 29:09.09 2
8 Alfred Kipchumba SO Portland 29:09.63 1

9 Matt Llano SR Richmond 29:10.27
10 John Beattie SR Tulsa 29:16.48

2011 NCAA Leading Times
1   Sambu, Stephen  JR-3    Arizona     27:28.64
2   Korir, Leonard  SR-4    Iona    27:29.40
3   Chelanga, Sam   SR-4    Liberty     28:15.64
4   Gerrard, Keith  SR-4    New Mexico  28:27.03
5   O'Lionaird, Ciaran  SR-4    Florida State   28:32.30
6   Fout, Michael   SO-2    Florida State   28:34.50
7   Kipchumba, Alfred   JR-3    Portland    28:38.34
8   Fraser, Rory    SR-4    New Mexico  28:41.01
9   Schirmer, Jeff  SR-4    Southern Illinois   28:42.71
10  Llano, Matt     SR-4    Richmond    28:43.30

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