2025 NCAA Men’s Outdoor Preview: A Classic 1500, Loaded Steeple, & Can 3 UNM Guys Win the Team Title?

Theoretically, it shouldn’t be that difficult to predict the winners at the NCAA Outdoor Track & Field Championships. The NCAA hosts an indoor championships in March, and the 800, 1500, and 5,000 are all contested indoors or have an indoor equivalent (mile). How much could change in three months?

If only it were that simple. No man has won an NCAA indoor and outdoor distance title in the same year since Cole Hocker did it for Oregon in 2021 (indoor mile/3,000 and outdoor 1500). Collectively, NCAA indoor champions in the men’s distance events are 0/10 at NCAA outdoors over the last three years. And of the 14 NCAA outdoor champions in the men’s distance events from 2022-24, only one of them finished in the top 3 at NCAA indoors that year (North Carolina’s Parker Wolfe, who was 2nd in the 3,000 and 5,000 indoors in 2024 before winning the 5,000 outdoors). The NCAA is so deep and talented on the men’s side in the 2020s that it is hard to stay on top for long and harder still for anyone to dominate the sport the way Edward Cheserek did in the 2010s.

All of that is to say, good luck to 2025 NCAA indoor champions Matthew Erickson (800), Abel Teffra (mile), Ethan Strand (3,000), and Brian Musau (5,000). If you can win again at this week’s NCAA outdoor championships, which begin on Wednesday at the University of Oregon’s Hayward Field, you will have done something truly special.

There should also be some terrific sprint finals as well. In the 100, Arkansas’ Jordan Anthony, who ran 9.75 (+2.1) at the West regional, faces South Florida’s Abdul-Rasheed Saminu, who clocked a wind-legal 9.86 (tied for #2 in NCAA history) at the East regional. The 400 should be a great battle between Alabama’s Olympic finalist Samuel Ogazi (44.41 sb) and Florida State freshman sensation Micahi Danzy (44.38).

LetsRun.com will have boots on the ground in Eugene beginning Wednesday. To get you ready for the meet, here is our preview of every men’s distance event.

Play in our NCAA Prediction Contest Here. Just pick the top 3 in the distance events from our guide and win cool prizes. Takes 5 minutes.

*Schedule/entries/results *TV/streaming information

Men’s 800: This one is wide open

(Prelims Wednesday 8:58 p.m. ET, final Friday 9:14 p.m. ET. Times below are from regionals, regular season times here)

           Name                        Year School                 Seed           
===============================================================================
  1   1166 Christian Jackson             JR VA Tech             1:45.31 
  2    332 Tinoda Matsatsa               SO Georgetown          1:45.36 
  3   1190 Rynard Swanepoel              SR Wake Forest         1:45.42 
  4    824 Handal Roban                  JR Penn State          1:45.47 
  5    621 Abdullahi Hassan              SR Miss State          1:45.64 
  6   1167 Nicholas Plant                JR VA Tech             1:45.90 
  7    623 Samuel Navarro                SR Miss State          1:46.47 
  8    672 Patrick Tuohy                 SR NC State            1:46.60 
  9    279 Kirk Dawkins                  JR FL A&M              1:46.62 
 10     91 Tyrice Taylor                 JR Arkansas            1:46.64 
 11   1048 Sam Whitmarsh                 SR TX A&M              1:46.68 
 12   1210 Kyle Reinheimer               SR Washington          1:46.82 
 13     85 Rivaldo Marshall              SR Arkansas            1:46.97 
 14    196 Aidan McCarthy                JR Cal Poly            1:47.01 
 15    806 Matthew Erickson              SR Oregon              1:47.07 
 16    418 Dugion Blackman               SR IA State            1:47.13 
 17    965 Lloyd Frilot                  SR TCU                 1:47.15 
 18    807 Koitatoi Kidali               FR Oregon              1:47.17 
 19    848 Samuel Rodman                 SR Princeton           1:47.24 
 20    231 Brian Kweyei                  SO Clemson             1:47.28 
 21    818 Allon Clay                    JR Penn State          1:47.29 
 22   1225 Andrew Casey                  SO Wisconsin           1:47.30 
 23   1226 Patrick Hilby                 FR Wisconsin           1:47.30 
 24   1218 Yared Kidane                  JR Wichita State       1:47.35

Oregon’s Matthew Erickson was the big surprise indoors, winning the NCAA title after entering the meet as the second-to-last seed. It wouldn’t be as big a surprise if he won outdoors, but he hasn’t been great this spring as he was beaten at Big 10s and finished 3rd in his quarterfinal at regionals, just barely snagging the final auto spot. His season’s best of 1:46.99 only ranks 33rd in the country this year, though to be fair to Erickson, he hasn’t been in any fast races. The Canadian has a good final 100, so he could be a threat in a slower race, but that is a rarity at NCAAs: the last time the winner at this meet failed to break 1:45 was back in 2017.

The best guy in the regular season has been Virginia Tech’s Christian Jackson, who has broken out in a big way in his third year under renowned mid-d coach Ben Thomas. Jackson entered this spring with a pb of 1:46.70 but has improved by almost two seconds to 1:44.83, the fastest time in the NCAA this year, which he ran to win the ACC title. He also had the fastest time of anyone at regionals, 1:45.31. The knock on Jackson is inexperience: he has never run an individual race at NCAAs.

If you’re looking for experience, big Sam Whitmarsh of Texas A&M was 2nd in this race last year and is one of only two returners from the 2024 final (Virginia Tech’s Nicholas Plant in 8th is the other). He looked strong in winning both of his heats at regionals and beat one of the best fields of the year at SECs, defeating NCAA indoor runner-up Abdullahi Hassan of Mississippi State and 2024 NCAA indoor champ Rivaldo Marshall of Arkansas. Cal Poly’s Aidan McCarthy (3rd indoors) and Penn State’s Handal Roban (3rd indoors and outdoors in 2023) also have NCAA experience. The winner of Big 10s was surprisingly Penn State’s Allon Clay of Japan. A teen phenom, Clay set the Japanese U18 record (1:46.59) as a 17-year-old way back in 2019. He has never bettered that time but returns to NCAAs for the first time since his freshman year indoors when he was at Texas A&M.

Georgetown’s Tinoda Matsatsa has one of the highest upsides in the field. Last year, he ran 1:45.12 as a 19-year-old true freshman and made it to the Olympic Trials final. This year, he finished 4th at NCAA indoors and has had no problem running 1:45 outdoors, doing it to win at the Florida Relays, Big Easts, and regionals.

What about the 1:42 guy?

When my boss Robert Johnson made his NCAA predictions before the regional meets, he chose Oregon’s Koitatoi Kidali as his winner based largely on the 1:42.66 he ran to make the Kenyan Olympic team last year. One of Rojo’s favorite sayings is “talent doesn’t go away” (as we just saw with Donavan Brazier), and Kidali’s pb is nearly two seconds faster than anyone else in the field.

Maybe someone sucked the talent out of Kidali’s fingers, Space Jam-style. Maybe his talent was in his checked luggage and Kenya Airways lost it on the flight to the US. But so far, the Kidali who arrived in Eugene last fall, with a rumored six-figure NIL deal, has looked nothing like a 1:42 guy. His season’s best this spring is 1:47.12, he was only 3rd at Big 10s (admittedly he was doubling back from the 1500) before he was DQ’d, and he was seriously straining just to finish 2nd behind Whitmarsh in his quarterfinal at regionals.

I’m not a big believer in “fluke” performances in track — you have to have the fitness to run the time — but with every race he runs, Kidali’s 1:42.66 from the Kenyan Olympic trials looks more and more like a massive outlier considering his next-fastest time is 1:45.0. It only takes one race to change a narrative, but I don’t share Rojo’s faith. Not for this meet, at least.

JG prediction: Jackson, Whitmarsh, and Matsatsa have all been running well of late and I think one of those three will be your winner. All three ran quickly to win their conference meets and beat some impressive guys to do so. It’s hard to choose between them, but I’ll roll with Matsatsa FTW. Consistently running 1:45 is very impressive, and Matsatsa destroyed Whitmarsh in the home straight when they raced at the Florida Relays in April.

Men’s 1500: Get ready for an incredible race

(Prelims Wednesday 7:21 p.m. ET, final Friday 8:12 p.m. ET. Times below are from regionals, regular season times here)

 Name                        Year School                 Seed           
===============================================================================
  1    333 Abel Teffra                   SR Georgetown          3:38.65 
  2    849 Harrison Witt                 SR Princeton           3:38.83 
  3   1184 Gary Martin                   JR Virginia            3:38.94 
  4    243 Damian Hackett                SR Cornell             3:39.67 
  5    804 Simeon Birnbaum               SO Oregon              3:39.79 
  6    601 Brendan Herger                FR Michigan            3:39.81 
  7    444 Duncan Robinson               SO Iona                3:40.04 
  8    756 Alex Stitt                    SR OK State            3:40.11 
  9   1033 Cooper Cawthra                SR TX A&M              3:40.15 
 10    708 Colin Sahlman                 JR No. Arizona         3:40.17 
 11    934 Leo Young                     SO Stanford            3:40.35 
 12     82 Davis Helmerich               SR Arkansas            3:40.70 
 13     88 Reuben Reina                  SO Arkansas            3:40.92 
 14    726 Michael Danzi                 SR Notre Dame          3:41.02 
 15    717 Ethan Strand                  JR North Carolina      3:44.23 
 16    603 Trent McFarland               SO Michigan            3:44.48 
 17    382 Ferenc Kovacs                 SO Harvard             3:44.54 
 18   1175 Liam Murphy                   SR Villanova           3:44.83 
 19    443 Martin Segurola               JR Indiana             3:44.96 
 20   1209 Nathan Green                  JR Washington          3:46.47 
 21   1228 Adam Spencer                  SR Wisconsin           3:46.78 
 22    204 Garrett MacQuiddy             SR California          3:47.06 
 23    640 Harvey Cramb                  SO MT State            3:47.28 
 24    167 Jack Crull                    SR Bradley             3:47.31

You might think that after going 1-3-5 at the Paris Olympics last year, American men’s 1500-meter running could not get any more competitive.

The 2025 crop of collegians has proven otherwise.

NCAA all-time regular-season 1500m list (bold = running 1500 at 2025 NCAAs)

Seven of the top 10 collegiate performers of all time are from this season, and four of them are running the 1500 at NCAAs this year. And that list does not include the two guys with the fastest pbs in the field, Wisconsin’s Adam Spencer (3:31.81) or Washington’s Nathan Green (3:32.20), who ran those times in the summer of 2023 and 2024, respectively.

The explosion of fast times is the product of more than just a talented crop of athletes — continued advances in shoe technology and training theory and a collective one-upsmanship have played a role as well. But considering last year’s Olympic podium was swept by former NCAA stars (Cole Hocker, Josh Kerr, Yared Nuguse), it’s a good bet that at least one of this year’s NCAA finalists will go on to a big-time pro career.

LRC Why Is Everyone Running So Fast in 2025? Super Spikes 3.0, A Golden Generation of Americans, and…Bicarb?

Picking a winner in this field is extraordinarily difficult — half a dozen guys have a convincing argument. Most of them raced at the Penn Relays in April, and based on that meet, Green should be the favorite as he anchored UW to wins in the DMR and 4 x mile. But then Spencer beat him at Big 10s in a 3:53 race where both men closed super fast for their last lap (51.36 for Spencer, 51.23 for Green).

Georgetown’s Abel Teffra also beat Green to win the NCAA mile title back in March, though he lost to Green a month later at the Bryan Clay Invite, 3:35.52 to 3:35.81. At Penn, Teffra had the fastest anchor split on the DMR (3:53.30) and ran down NCAA indoor 800 champ Matthew Erickson to anchor Georgetown to victory in the 4 x 800. Since then, he has run personal bests of 1:45.67 for 800 and 3:33.84 for 1500 — though he lost the latter race to UNC’s Ethan Strand, who set NCAA records in the mile (3:48.32) and 3,000 (7:30.15) and won the NCAA 3,000 indoors. Strand looked great at his own conference meet, running 3:44 to win ACCs thanks to a 51.67 last 400 — even more impressive when you consider he ran the entire last lap in lane 2.

Liam Murphy (NCAA 1500 record of 3:33.02) and Gary Martin (3:48 mile indoors, outkicked Strand to win NCAA DMR in March) are also serious contenders. That makes a “Big Six” of Strand, Murphy, Martin, Green, Spencer, and Teffra.

JG prediction: Of that Big Six group, Strand, Murphy, and Martin are strength guys who can run great cross country while Green, Spencer and Teffra are your classic pure milers. But realistically, any of them can win, because all of them can kick.

In a faster race, I favor Strand, who showed indoors that he can close well even while running NCAA record pace. In a slower race, I lean towards Green. Whatever the race style, positioning and strategy are going to play a significant role. When Strand has stayed patient and waited until the final 200 to kick, he has been unbeatable this year. But there is also a risk in waiting too long — just look at what happened at Big 10s. In that race, Spencer and Green battled for the lead on the back straight, and Spencer got it. Green was then shuffled back to 3rd on the final turn, enabling Spencer to open up a gap entering the home straight. Even though Green was moving faster at the end, Spencer won the race.

That sort of drama is what makes this event so much fun to watch.

If you run this race 10 times, you might get four different winners, but at gunpoint, I’m going with Green. He was the NCAA 1500 champ in 2023, and while he ran poorly at NCAA outdoors last year (10th), he was clearly the best collegian at the Olympic Trials, where he finished 5th in a pb of 3:32.20. I think he gets it right and gives Washington their fourth straight win in the men’s 1500.

Men’s steeple: American Olympian James Corrigan vs the Kenyans

(Prelims Wednesday 7:38 p.m. ET, final Friday 8:24 p.m. ET. Times below are from regionals, regular season times here)

           Name                        Year School                 Seed           
===============================================================================
  1    514 Collins Kiprop Kipngok        FR Kentucky            8:24.91 
  2    698 Mathew Kosgei                 FR New Mexico          8:25.41 
  3    546 Geoffrey Kirwa                FR Louisville          8:26.25 
  4   1018 Silas Kiptanui                SO Tulane              8:27.28 
  5    423 Joash Ruto                    FR IA State            8:28.86 
  6    641 Rob McManus                   JR MT State            8:30.65 
  7    276 Kristian Imroth               JR E. Kentucky         8:30.80 
  8    803 Benjamin Balazs               SO Oregon              8:31.13 
  9    327 Carson Williams               SR Furman              8:31.61 
 10    184 James Corrigan                JR BYU                 8:31.79 
 11    236 Kole Mathison                 SO Colorado            8:32.74 
 12   1041 Victor Kibiego                JR TX A&M              8:32.83 
 13   1232 Ryker Holtzen                 JR Wyoming             8:34.95 
 14    727 CJ Singleton                  JR Notre Dame          8:36.51 
 15   1074 Titus Kimaru                  FR TX Tech             8:36.83 
 16    671 Brett Gardner                 JR NC State            8:37.63 
 17    590 Andrew Nolan                  SR Mich State          8:37.83 
 18    100 Nathan Davis                  JR Army West Point     8:38.72 
 19    422 Quinton Orr                   JR IA State            8:39.13 
 20    883 Cody Larson                   JR SD State            8:39.60 
 21   1212 Peter Visser                  JR Weber State         8:40.17 
 22     37 Ezekiel Pitireng              FR Alabama             8:40.37 
 23   1169 Declan Rymer                  SR VA Tech             8:41.11 
 24     13 Bismack Kipchirchir           FR Akron               8:42.88

This should be a good one. On April 16, Louisville’s Geoffrey Kirwa ran 8:13.89 at the Bryan Clay Invite — among collegians, only Henry Rono, who ran a then-world record of 8:05.4 way back in 1978, has gone faster. Normally, 8:13 would make Kirwa an enormous favorite at NCAAs, but he is by no means a lock. BYU’s James Corrigan actually ran even faster last summer — 8:13.87 — and made the US Olympic team. And New Mexico’s Matthew Kosgei ran 8:17.46 last year to take silver at the World U20 championships in Peru (he also finished 6th at the Kenyan Olympic trials). It’s not a stretch to call this one of the most competitive NCAA steeplechase finals ever.

JG prediction: Any of those three guys could win it, and none has lost a steeple this spring, so there is not much to choose between them. Usually what happens in these situations at LetsRun.com is that we will pick against the BYU athlete, they will win, and coach Ed Eyestone will give us a gentle ribbing over it after the race. So this time I’m going to avoid that and pick Corrigan FTW.

Men’s 5,000/10,000: Can New Mexico go 1-2 x2?

Men’s 10,000 (Final Wednesday 9:56 p.m. ET. Times below are from regionals, regular season times here)

   Name                        Year School                 Seed           
===============================================================================
  1    697 Ishmael Kipkurui              FR New Mexico         28:09.32 
  2    699 Habtom Samuel                 SO New Mexico         28:09.33 
  3   1068 Ernest Cheruiyot              SO TX Tech            28:12.16 
  4    753 Denis Kipngetich              SO OK State           28:15.51 
  5   1197 Evans Kurui                   SO Wash State         28:19.22 
  6    705 Drew Bosley                   SR No. Arizona        28:19.60 
  7    707 David Mullarkey               SR No. Arizona        28:19.73 
  8    420 Rodgers Kiplimo               JR IA State           28:19.84 
  9    933 Cole Sprout                   SR Stanford           28:20.82 
 10    189 Joey Nokes                    SR BYU                28:21.04 
 11    193 Creed Thompson                JR BYU                28:21.52 
 12     81 Timothy Chesondin             SO Arkansas           28:23.00 
 13    326 Dylan Schubert                SR Furman             29:00.47 
 14     32 Victor Kiprop                 SR Alabama            29:00.88 
 15     33 Dennis Kipruto                SO Alabama            29:01.39 
 16   1017 Bernard Cheruiyot             FR Tulane             29:02.16 
 17    383 Ben Rosa                      SR Harvard            29:02.85 
 18     34 Dismus Lokira                 FR Alabama            29:03.27 
 19    725 Ethan Coleman                 JR Notre Dame         29:03.36 
 20    936 Sam Lawler                    SR Syracuse           29:04.98 
 21    663 Murphy Smith                  SR Navy               29:06.20 
 22    814 Dylan Throop                  SR Penn               29:07.67 
 23    172 William Zegarski              SO Butler             29:10.03 
 24    381 Shane Brosnan                 SO Harvard            29:19.56

Men’s 5,000 (Final Friday 9:55 p.m. ET. Times below are from regionals, regular season times here)

 Name                        Year School                 Seed           
===============================================================================
  1    835 Matt Strangio                 SR Portland           13:25.98 
  2    205 Valentin Soca                 JR CBU                13:26.58 
  3    417 Robin Kwemoi Bera             FR IA State           13:26.71 
  4   1234 Jacob White                   JR Wyoming            13:27.32 
  5    697 Ishmael Kipkurui              FR New Mexico         13:28.25 
  6    755 Brian Musau                   SO OK State           13:32.05 
  7    699 Habtom Samuel                 SO New Mexico         13:32.41 
  8    707 David Mullarkey               SR No. Arizona        13:33.85 
  9    754 Fouad Messaoudi               SR OK State           13:34.34 
 10    705 Drew Bosley                   SR No. Arizona        13:34.58 
 11    185 Luke Grundvig                 JR BYU                13:34.63 
 12   1068 Ernest Cheruiyot              SO TX Tech            13:34.88 
 13   1188 Rocky Hansen                  SO Wake Forest        13:36.54 
 14   1191 Luke Tewalt                   SR Wake Forest        13:39.60 
 15   1182 Will Daley                    JR Virginia           13:39.97 
 16   1189 JoJo Jourdon                  FR Wake Forest        13:53.89 
 17    781 Kidus Misgina                 SR Ole Miss           13:54.94 
 18   1235 Hunter Christopher            SR Youngstown St      13:55.21 
 19    171 Matthew Forrester             JR Butler             14:00.14 
 20   1174 Marco Langon                  JR Villanova          14:06.40 
 21    717 Ethan Strand                  JR North Carolina     14:06.41 
 22   1186 Justin Wachtel                JR Virginia           14:07.91 
 23    776 Toby Gillen                   SR Ole Miss           14:08.45 
 24    716 Colton Sands                  SR North Carolina     14:08.96

Track & Field News‘s pre-NCAA formchart has New Mexico projected for 2nd place in the team standings at NCAAs, just two points behind projected winner Texas A&M. That is fairly incredible when you consider that: 1) New Mexico has never finished higher than 5th in the 105-year history of the meet; 2) New Mexico only has three entrants in the 2025 championships.

If the Lobos are to pull off the miracle and win it all, it will likely require 1-2 finishes by stars Habtom Samuel and Ishmael Kipkurui in the 5,000 and 10,000 meters. Can they do it?

A Lobo sweep is actually quite likely in the 10,000. Samuel won the race last year despite falling with 900m to go, and since then he has only gotten better, running personal bests of 13:04.92 in the 5,000 and 26:51.06 in the 10,000 this year. The latter time would have broken the NCAA record…except Kipkurui, the 2023 World U20 XC champion for Kenya, beat him to the punch by running 26:50.21 in the same race.

The two collegians with the best chance to challenge the Lobos in the 10k, Harvard’s NCAA cross country champion Graham Blanks and BYU’s Casey Clinger (27:11.00 sb) both turned pro this year, and with them gone, no one else in the NCAA has run within 40 seconds of Samuel or Kipkurui.

With SBs of 13:05 (Samuel) and 13:09 (Kipkurui), the New Mexico guys are also the top two seeds in the 5,000 (CBU’s Valentin Soca is next at 13:13). And they caught a big break ahead of NCAAs when defending champion Parker Wolfe of North Carolina withdrew due to a foot injury. Wolfe’s teammate Ethan Strand is entered, but he may not be a factor as he will be tired from the 1500 final 90 minutes earlier.

But their path to a sweep will not be as easy in this event. Oklahoma State’s Brian Musau, who outkicked Samuel to win the NCAA title indoors, is a major threat, though he didn’t run at Big 12s. OK State coach Dave Smith told LetsRun he held Musau out of that meet because he had looked a bit off in some workouts, but Musau looked good at regionals, where he beat Samuel to win his heat.

“[At regionals], I said looks like you’re back,” Smith said. “He said ‘I’m not, but I will be in two weeks.'”

Musau’s teammate Fouad Messaoudi, who has run 3:34 for 1500 this year and won the 2023 NCAA 3,000 title, could also be a threat, particularly in a slower race.

There are also two young Americans who have a legitimate shot at the win: 19-year-old Rocky Hansen of Wake Forest, who ran an impressive 13:12 to finish 3rd in the 5,000 indoors, and 20-year-old Marco Langon of Villanova, who was 6th indoors in 13:14 and has subsequently run 3:33 for 1500 outdoors. Both have serious wheels. The hype machine will really pick up steam if one of them manages to beat a field this strong at this point in their career.

JG prediction: I’ll take Samuel over Kipkurui for the win in the 10,000. Musau’s dip during the regular season worries me a bit, but he usually turns up for the championships — he won indoors and is the top returner from last year’s outdoor final (4th). I’ll pick Musau FTW in the 5,000.

Play in our NCAA Prediction Contest Here. Just pick the top 3 in the distance events from our guide and win cool prizes. Takes 5 minutes.

Talk about the meet on our world-famous messageboard/fan forum.