WTW: 7:30 For 3k Isn’t Fast, Shelby’s Back, Why Hobbs Kessler Is Unlikely To Medal In LA & A Runner Quits The Sport After Setting A Collegiate Record
The Week That Was in Running, Jan. 27 - Feb. 2, 2025
By Robert JohnsonMost weeks, we try to make the sport more fun to follow by putting the prior week’s action in perspective for you.
Past editions of our Week That Was weekly recap can be found here. If you like our written weekly recap, you’ll love our weekly Track Talk Podcast as well.
Got a tip, question or comment? Please call us at 844-LETSRUN (538-7786), email us, or post in our forum.
If you missed Jonathan Gault‘s reporting from over the weekend in Boston (it’s Jonathan’s birthday today by the way – Happy BDAY!), catch up now:
- 9 Takeaways from 2025 NBIGP: Quincy Wilson Is a Superstar, Noah Lyles & Grant Holloway Begin Their Post-Olympic Eras, & More
- Ethan Strand Runs 3:48.32 in Boston to Crush NCAA Mile Record
- Parker Valby Is Ready for the Next Step Ahead of Pro Debut at 2025 New Balance Indoor Grand Prix
- 2025 BU Terrier Day 1: Olympians Nikki Hiltz, Elise Cranny, & Whittni Morgan Earn Big Wins as Lexy Halladay-Lowry Joins Sub 15 Club
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Ethan Strand 3:48.32
The biggest story of the week was North Carolina’s Ethan Strand running 3:48.32 to smash the NCAA record in the mile which we recapped extensively here. He is the guest on our podcast this week which you can listen to here on your favorite podcast player or in the Spotify player below.
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“I don’t think anything over 7:30 (for 3k) is fast.”
A few years back, high school coach Sean Brosnan famously said that 4:20 (for a mile) isn’t fast for a high schooler. And now after running 7:35.06 for 3000 at the NBIGP, American Hobbs Kessler said, “I don’t think anything over 7:30 (for 3k) is fast.”
The moment he said it, our Jonathan Gault knew the comment would catch people’s attention and it did as someone saw the interview on YouTube and quickly started a messageboard thread shortly thereafter: Hobbs Kessler: “I don’t think anything over 7:30 (for 3k) is fast”.
What do I think? I love Hobbs’ comment. For someone of his accolades, accomplishments, and future goals, he’s right, “7:30 isn’t fast if you are hoping to win Olympic 1500 gold.”
Here are the 3000 pbs or converted 2 mile pbs for the four men who beat Hobbs Kessler in the Paris Olympics 1500 last year.
Cole Hocker – 7:29.56* *Converted from 8:05.70 2 mile
Jakob Ingebrigtsen – 7:17.55
Josh Kerr – 7:24.79* *Converted from 8:00.67 2 mile
Yared Nuguse – 7:28.23
I have little doubt all four could break 7:25 in peak fitness. 7:35 is a ways away from that, so it’s great that Kessler is disappointed.
Yes, Hobbs Kessler has better 800 speed than the guys who beat him in Paris, but given how the 1500 is being run these days, it won’t matter if he’s not strong enough to stay close when it comes time to kick.
A few weeks ago, on the Supporters Club podcast, I said that I thought American Nathan Green had better medal odds than Hobbs Kessler for LA 2028. To be honest, I’m not sure if I totally believe that. The main point I wanted to get across is I don’t think Kessler’s medal odds are very good. Green — who is 26 days younger than Kessler — was roughly at the same level as Kessler two years ago (Green finished right behind Kessler at USAs after winning the 1500 in the NCAA) and has never trained at altitude, so it’s possible his upside is higher and it very well may take more than what we’ve seen from Kessler so far to medal in 2028.
5th at the Olympics for Kessler at age 21 is amazing but the problem is performance and results occur on a bell curve. The very best are outliers and have much more room for error. In Paris, Kessler finished 1.65 seconds away from the bronze medal, but he was much closer to 10th place (1.43 seconds behind him) than 3rd.
Do you really expect Kessler to beat Hocker, Kerr, Nuguse, or Ingebrigtsen in 2028? It’s not like they were old in 2024 as they were 23, 26, 25, and 23 in Paris. Ok, maybe you think Kerr will be too old? But there are still three guys you’d be foolish to bet against in a head-to-head versus Kessler for Paris 2028.
And then there are younger people rising up who so far appear to be bigger teen phenoms than Kessler was. Kessler lost to 18-year-old Aussie Cam Myers in Boston and 19-year-old Dutchman Niels Laros was just one spot behind Kessler in Paris despite missing much of the year with injury.
And age isn’t everything. If we were ranking the US milers in terms of current fitness on February 3, 2025, we’d have to rank Ethan Strand, who is a tiny bit older than Kessler (148 days to be exact), ahead of Kessler as Strand just ran 3:48.32 for the mile over the weekend (after running 7:30.15 for 3000 in December).
For fun, I decided to see if my hunch that even a young 5th placer at Worlds/Olympics doesn’t often go on to a medal was correct or not. So I went back at looked at every World/Olympic 1500 final between 2005 and 2015 and determined if the 5th placer ever medalled after that in the 1500.
The table below shows only one of the seven men who finished 5th — and all seven of them were 26 or younger when they finished 5th — went on to earn a 1500 medal. 1/7 is 14.3%. Now the guy who medalled, Abdalaati Iguider, actually finished 5th twice in the table in both 2008 and 2011 (and then again in 2016), so if you want to say it really should be 2/8, then that would be 25%.
How often does the 5th placer in the 1500 medal |
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Year | Athlete / Age / Country | 1500 Medal afterwards? | Best finish afterward |
2005 | Arturo Casado / 22 / ESP | No | 7th in 2007 |
2007 | Tarek Boukensa / 25 / ALG | No | 11th in 2011 |
2008 | Abdalaati Iguider /21 / MOR | Yes | Bronze in 2012 and 2015 |
2009 | Augustine Choge / 22 / KEN | No | Never made another 1500 team |
2011 | Abdalaati Iguider / 24 / MOR | Yes | Bronze in 2012 and 2015 |
2012 | Henrik Ingebrigtsen / 21 / NOR | No | 8th in 2013 |
2013 | Homiyu Tesfaye / 20 / GER | No | Olympic semis |
2015 | Silas Kiplagat / 26 / Kenya | No | Never made another 1500 team (had medalled before) |
- Hobbs Kessler: “I don’t think anything over 7:30 (for 3k) is fast”
- Hobbs Kessler 7:35! Amazing for a 800/1500m specialist
- Cameron Myers 7’33”12 3000m – how fast can he run this summer ?
- Bigger medal prospect for LA 2028 – Hobbs Kessler or Nathan Green?
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Japanese Collegian Runs 2:06:07 Marathon & Quits The Sport
At Japan’s Beppu-Oita Mainichi Marathon over the weekend, it was expected that collegiate star Kiyoto Hirabayashi, the captain of Izumo Ekiden and National University Ekiden winner Koku Gakuin University, would grab all the headlines in his second marathon, as in his marathon debut last year he won in Osaka in a collegiate and Japanese debut record of 2:06:18.
And after a 63:17 first half, Hirabayashi attacked when the pacers dropped off at 30k. However, he faded badly in the final 5km and ended up 9th in 2:09:13.
Instead, the domestic headlines went to Hiroki Wakabayashi from Aoyama Gakuin University. The 22-year-old uphill 5th stage course record holder from the Hakone Ekiden, who sported modest PBs of 13:41/28:25/61:25 coming in, was battling it out for the win with 2021 London Marathon runner-up Vincent Kipchumba. In the end, Kimpchumba, 34, got the win in a course record 2:06:01 in only his second road race finish at any distance since finishing 2nd in London, but Wakabayashi broke Hirabayashi’s debut and collegiate records as he was second in 2:06:07.
If you think that’s a super promising start to Wakabayashi’s marathon career, think again. He said before the race that he’d be taking a normal job after he graduates next month and he held firm to that pledge after the race. So it was a great end to his marathon career.
If he sticks to his promise, that’s legendary.
Now Japan Running News’ Brett Larner pointed out that five years ago, then-collegian Yuya Yoshida said the same thing about retiring after running 2:08:30 at Beppu-Oita but he didn’t stick to it and now is a two-time Fukuoka champion with a 2:05:16 pb.
More: Kipchumba Sets CR, Wakabayashi Breaks Collegiate Record and Retires at Beppu-Oita
*MB: Japanese student runs 2:06:07 at first and last marathon
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Shelby Houlihan’s doping ban is over and she’s back as a major player on the US scene
Shelby Houlihan‘s 4-year doping ban is over. Whether you think she intentionally doped or not is pretty much irrelevant at this point. The reality is she served her time — missing an unprecedented two Olympics for a first-time doping offense — and has the right to compete.
And compete she did at the University of Arkansas on Saturday. Running in a race where she lapped every other competitor in the field, Houlihan ran a very solid 8:31.56 and the #1 takeaway has to be this: barring another doping positive, she’s going to be a player on the US scene for years to come.
To put Houlihan’s time in perspective, Parker Valby PR’d by 6+ seconds a day later in Boston and ran 8:34.95. Now, it’s worth noting that Houlihan’s PB is 8:26.66 (and the 3000 is right in Houlihan’s wheelhouse whereas it’s short for Valby). But considering the lack of competition in Arkansas, Houlihan likely could get close to her old PB in a stacked race with competition.
That being said, it should be pointed out Houlihan had a rabbit in Arkansas for roughly half the race. 2023 US steeple champ Krissy Gear has splits listed for the first 1400 meters. But if you are a Houlihan fan, you should be encouraged by the fact that she ran the second half of the race without pacing help faster than the first half as she roughly went 4:19.5 for the 1st half and 4:12.0 for the 2nd.
Only one American — Elle St. Pierre (8:20.87) — has ever broken 8:25 for 3000. Elise Cranny holds the US outdoor record at 8:25.10 (Alicia Monson has run 8:25.05 indoors).
Another thing worth noting is that Houlihan did wear super spikes. She was famous for not wearing them before she was banned but a shoe expert told us he thought she was wearing Nike Dragonflys.
- MB: SHELBYS BACK BABY!!! Houlihan 8:31.56 – dominant 34-second victory!!!!
- MB: If Shelby was doping intentionally why wasn’t she running super spikes?
- MB: Shelby’s 8:31 is *PROOF* that Shelby Houlihan was not intentionally doping
- MB: Shelby Houlihan 2025 Prediction Polls
- MB: How long until Shelby Houlihan is sponsored and back on a team
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Breakthrough of the week
How about a shoutout to redshirt senior Laura Pellicoro of Portland?
Pellicoro has never made an NCAA final in the 800, 1500, or mile, but now Pellicoro is the third-fastest collegiate miler in history as she ran a huge pb of 4:25.60 to win on the oversized UW track on Saturday.
It was a nearly 6-second mile pb for the 24-year-old Italian, who had a 4:31.49 mile pb prior to the weekend (and a similar 1500 pb of 4:11.63). Pellicoro has improved a lot in college as she showed up at Portland with modest PBs of 2:07.69 for 800 and 4:34.63 for 1500.
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Stat of the Week I
22 – number of NCAA DI milers who have broken 3:55 in the mile this year (or the equivalent using altitude conversions).
And to think a few years ago, we thought it was wild that a sub-4 guy wouldn’t make it to NCAAs. Considering 91 guys have already broken 4:00 in D1 during this school year, that’s now commonplace. It certainly looks like sub-3:55 guys may miss out this year.
Remember when Edward Cheserek held the NCAA mile record?
(You should, it was only four years ago)
Now he’s barely in the top 10 all-time.https://t.co/Ye8Jasr22h pic.twitter.com/1uNTmkWss7
— Jonathan Gault (@jgault13) February 2, 2025
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Stat of the Week II
2 – number of Japanese men who have broken 60:00 in the half marathon. Heading into the weekend, that number was zero (their NR had been 60:00 since 2020) but at the 77th Kagawa Marugame International Half Marathon on Sunday, two Japanese men took advantage of supreme conditions.
After 15 hours of rain, Brett Larner reports there was no wind and a cool mist in the air (and remember as John Kellogg always reminds us – moist air is less dense than dry air) and Paris 10,000 Olympian Tomoki Ota (24th in the 10,000, track pbs of 13:20/27:12) of Toyota, 27, took advantage and finished third in a national record time of 59:27 (his previous half pb was 60:08).
Komazawa University’s Kotaro Shinohara, 22, who had run 60:11 in the same race in 2023, got the collegiate record by running 59:30 for 4th. Shinohara’s pbs on the track are 13:15/27:35.
And the Japanese/American half marathon gap is back to almost exactly where it was at the start of the year. For 5+ years, the US record of 59:43 was 17 seconds faster than the Japanese record, but that jumped up to 43 seconds when Conner Mantz ran 59:17 a few weeks ago. Now that gap is back down to just 10 seconds.
More: Mutiso and Omare Break CR, Ota and Shinohara Break the Hour Barrier in Marugame
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The 10 most popular messageboard threads from last week
The hardest core track fans are going at it 24/7/365 on the forum.
- Nikki Hiltz says Shelby Houlihan is “homophobic” – “It sounds like the call is coming from inside the house”
- SHELBYS BACK BABY!!! Houlihan 8:31.56 – dominant 34-second victory!!!!
- Fred Kerley’s wife says he had an affair with a “well-known woman athlete” that ended in Nov. Who was it?
- ETHAN MF STRAND 3:48.32 CR
- Grant Fisher closes workout with 4-flat mile
- Josh Hoey: Is it time to call a spade a spade? If it walks like a duck, runs 2:14 and 3:33 like a duck….
- This workout basically was the start of the end for German Fernandez as he was hurt right after this and never was the same again
- Gabby Thomas claims she’s been stalked at multiple airports
- Why was Ritz so wrong with his prediction for Joe Klecker’s 13.1?
- Spectator hit and killed by weight throw at Colorado Springs track meet
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Last Week’s Home Pages
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Got a tip, question or comment? Please call us at 844-LETSRUN (538-7786), email us, or post in our forum.
