Here’s Who’s Going to the 2022 NCAA XC Champs If Everything Goes According to Form

By LetsRun.com
November 10, 2022

The 2022 NCAA Division I Cross Country Regionals — the nine meets that will determine which schools qualify for the 2022 NCAA Division I Cross Country Championships — will be held across the country on Friday. As usual, the top two teams in each region will qualify automatically for the big dance, with the remaining 13 spots determined based on regular-season wins over qualified teams. The NCAA Championships are November 19 in Stillwater, Okla.

It can be a complicated process. Fortunately, friend of LetsRun.com Bo Waggoner has once again shared his computer program that can project the NCAA fields. It’s pretty awesome. If you go to xcquals.com and input the results from each region, Bo’s program will run the numbers and tell you who will qualify for NCAAs (you can play around with it to create any scenario).

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To get you ready for Friday, we’ve run the program based on USTFCCCA’s current regional rankings. The projected qualifiers appear farther down. Later tonight, we’ll run the program again using the results of our regional polls. If you haven’t voted in our regional polls, do so now.

Photo by Tim Boyle

We’ll be running the program again on Friday as the regional results start to come in and we should know the complete fields at the conclusion of the final races (shortly after 2:30 p.m. ET) so be sure to come to LetsRun.com on Friday to find out who has qualified for NCAAs. After we type up a quick article telling you who has qualified, we’ll also be recording a live episode of our Friday 15 podcast where we break down the entire field. If you can’t listen live, don’t worry — you can join the LetsRun.com Supporters Club and get access to the full archive of Friday 15 episodes while supporting LRC’s independent journalism in the process.

But below you willwho is going to NCAAs assuming the regional rankings hold.

Talk about 2022 NCAA cross country regionals on our world-famous fan forum / messageboard:

MB: Official 2022 Who’s Going to the Big Dance / NCAA XC Regionals Live Discussion Thread?

Men

Auto qualifiers

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Notre Dame
  3. Villanova
  4. Princeton
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Tulsa
  7. BYU
  8. Northern Arizona
  9. Syracuse
  10. Harvard
  11. Alabama
  12. Tennessee
  13. Arkansas
  14. Texas
  15. Wake Forest
  16. North Carolina
  17. Stanford
  18. Washington

At-large qualifiers

19. Air Force
20. Colorado
21. NC State
22. Oregon
23. CBU
24. Gonzaga
25. Portland
26. Michigan
27. Montana State
28. Georgetown
29. Colorado St.
30. Utah State
31. Butler

Teams on the bubble that miss out: Iowa State, Providence, Cal Poly, Virginia.

And here’s the full logic for why each team is picked:

Teams under consideration by points:
  12 Air Force
  11 Colorado
  4  NC State, Oregon
  1  Iowa State, Virginia, CBU, Michigan, Butler, Georgetown
  0  South Dakota St., Providence, Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Gonzaga (4), Portland (4), Duke (1), Montana State (1), Utah State (1), Colorado St. (1)

19: Air Force (#3 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Cowboy Jamboree) Colorado; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  12 Colorado
  4  NC State, Oregon
  1  Iowa State, Virginia, CBU, Michigan, Butler, Georgetown, Montana State
  0  South Dakota St., Providence, Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Gonzaga (4), Portland (4), Duke (1), Utah State (1), Colorado St. (1)

20: Colorado (#4 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  4  NC State, Oregon
  1  Iowa State, Virginia, CBU, Michigan, Butler, Georgetown, Montana State, Colorado St.
  0  South Dakota St., Providence, Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Gonzaga (4), Portland (4), Duke (1), Utah State (1)
  Breaking ties between NC State, Oregon using head-to-head
  Oregon loses head-to-head vs NC State, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

21: NC State (#3 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) Montana State, Charlotte, Butler, Cal Poly, Michigan; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  4  Oregon
  2  Michigan, Butler, Montana State
  1  Iowa State, Virginia, Charlotte, CBU, Georgetown, Colorado St.
  0  South Dakota St., Providence, Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Gonzaga (4), Portland (4), Duke (1), Cal Poly (1), Utah State (1)

22: Oregon (#3 West) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Portland; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  4  Gonzaga
  2  Michigan, Butler, Montana State
  1  Iowa State, Virginia, Charlotte, CBU, Georgetown, Colorado St.
  0  South Dakota St., Providence, Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Portland (5), Duke (1), Cal Poly (1), Utah State (1)

23: CBU (#4 West) is selected, gives no points (pushed in)
24: Gonzaga (#5 West) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Portland, Utah State, Georgetown, Colorado St., Duke, Michigan, Iowa State, Michigan State, Boise State, Providence; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  6  Portland
  3  Michigan
  2  Iowa State, Butler, Georgetown, Montana State, Colorado St.
  1  Virginia, Charlotte, Providence
  0  South Dakota St., Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Duke (2), Utah State (2), Michigan State (1), Cal Poly (1), Boise State (1)

25: Portland (#6 West) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Michigan
  2  Iowa State, Butler, Georgetown, Montana State, Colorado St.
  1  Virginia, Charlotte, Providence, Cal Poly
  0  South Dakota St., Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Duke (2), Utah State (2), Michigan State (1), Boise State (1)

26: Michigan (#3 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) Montana State, Charlotte, Butler, Cal Poly; (Nuttycombe) Utah State, Georgetown, Colorado St., Duke; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Butler, Georgetown, Montana State, Colorado St.
  2  Iowa State, Charlotte, Cal Poly
  1  Virginia, Providence, Michigan State
  0  South Dakota St., Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Duke (3), Utah State (3), Boise State (1)
  Breaking ties between Butler, Georgetown, Montana State, Colorado St. using head-to-head
  Butler loses head-to-head vs Georgetown, is not selected (Big East Championships)
  Butler loses head-to-head vs Montana State, is not selected (Joe Piane, Weis-Crockett Invitational (Pre-Nationals))
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Butler and Colorado St.
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Georgetown and Montana State
  Colorado St. loses head-to-head vs Georgetown, is not selected (Nuttycombe)
  Colorado St. loses head-to-head vs Montana State, is not selected (Mountain)
  Breaking ties between Georgetown, Montana State using common opponents
  Georgetown loses common opponents vs Montana State, is not selected (win percentages: 0.625, 0.4666666666666667) (common opponents: Northern Arizona, Navy, Boise State, Utah State, Butler, Colorado St., Colorado, BYU, Florida State, Notre Dame, Michigan, New Mexico, Air Force, NC State)

27: Montana State (#5 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Butler, Georgetown, Colorado St., Utah State
  2  Iowa State, Charlotte, Cal Poly
  1  Virginia, Providence, Michigan State
  0  South Dakota St., Iona, Navy, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Duke (3), Boise State (1)
  Breaking ties between Butler, Georgetown, Colorado St., Utah State using head-to-head
  Butler loses head-to-head vs Georgetown, is not selected (Big East Championships)
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Butler and Colorado St.
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Butler and Utah State
  Colorado St. loses head-to-head vs Georgetown, is not selected (Nuttycombe)
  Georgetown loses head-to-head vs Utah State, is not selected (Paul Short, Nuttycombe)
  Utah State loses head-to-head vs Colorado St., is not selected (Nuttycombe, Mountain West Championships, Mountain)
  Head-to-head tiebreaker eliminated all teams; ignoring.
  Breaking ties between Butler, Georgetown, Colorado St., Utah State using common opponents
  Georgetown loses common opponents vs Butler, is not selected (win percentages: 0.631578947368421, 0.6086956521739131) (common opponents: Villanova, Creighton, Boise State, Indiana, Penn, Navy, Miami (Ohio), Florida State, DePaul, Notre Dame, Michigan State, NC State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Providence, Syracuse)
  Butler loses common opponents vs Colorado St., is not selected (win percentages: 0.5, 0.3888888888888889) (common opponents: Wyoming, Villanova, Boise State, CBU, Indiana, Michigan, Florida State, Notre Dame, Montana State, Michigan State, NC State, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Providence, Syracuse)
  Butler loses common opponents vs Utah State, is not selected (win percentages: 0.631578947368421, 0.4117647058823529) (common opponents: Wyoming, Villanova, Boise State, Indiana, Michigan, Florida State, Notre Dame, Montana State, Michigan State, NC State, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Providence, Syracuse)
  Georgetown loses common opponents vs Colorado St., is not selected (win percentages: 0.4772727272727273, 0.43902439024390244) (common opponents: NC State, Villanova, Notre Dame, Utah State, Wisconsin, Furman, Colorado, North Carolina, Oregon, Florida State, Portland, New Mexico, Santa Clara, Northern Arizona, Syracuse, Stanford, Iowa State, Tulsa, Indiana, Iona, BYU, Boise State, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, Washington, Minnesota, Harvard, Providence, Air Force)
  Utah State loses common opponents vs Georgetown, is not selected (win percentages: 0.475, 0.4666666666666667) (common opponents: NC State, Villanova, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Furman, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida State, Portland, New Mexico, Santa Clara, Northern Arizona, Syracuse, Stanford, Iowa State, Tulsa, Indiana, Colorado St., BYU, Boise State, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, Washington, Oregon, Harvard, Providence, Iona, Air Force)
  Colorado St. loses common opponents vs Utah State, is not selected (win percentages: 0.5818181818181818, 0.5555555555555556) (common opponents: Wyoming, Villanova, Duke, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Furman, Michigan State, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida State, Portland, Utah Valley, Montana State, Michigan, Nevada, UTEP, Santa Clara, Georgetown, Northern Arizona, Harvard, Stanford, Iowa State, Boise State, Indiana, Southern Utah, Iona, BYU, Tulsa, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, NC State, Washington, Oregon, Syracuse, Providence, San Jose St., Air Force, Weber State)
  Common opponent tiebreaker eliminated all teams; ignoring.
  Breaking ties between ['Butler', 'Georgetown', 'Colorado St.', 'Utah State'] using highest place at regionals.
  Broke tie by selecting Georgetown (highest regional finish).

28: Georgetown (#3 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (Paul Short) Utah State; (Big East Championships) Providence; (Nuttycombe) Utah State; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  5  Utah State
  3  Butler, Colorado St.
  2  Iowa State, Charlotte, Providence, Cal Poly
  1  Virginia, Michigan State
  0  South Dakota St., Iona, Navy, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Duke (3), Boise State (1)

Utah State not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
  Breaking ties between Butler, Colorado St. using head-to-head
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Butler and Colorado St.
  Breaking ties between Butler, Colorado St. using common opponents
  Butler loses common opponents vs Colorado St., is not selected (win percentages: 0.5, 0.3888888888888889) (common opponents: Wyoming, Villanova, Boise State, CBU, Indiana, Michigan, Florida State, Notre Dame, Montana State, Michigan State, NC State, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Providence, Syracuse)

29: Colorado St. (#6 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Griak Invitational) Michigan State; (Nuttycombe) Utah State; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  6  Utah State
  3  Butler
  2  Iowa State, Charlotte, Providence, Cal Poly, Michigan State
  1  Virginia
  0  South Dakota St., Iona, Navy, Pittsburgh, Southern Utah, Texas A&M, Arkansas State, Ole Miss, Florida State
  Others with points: Duke (3), Boise State (1)

30: Utah State (#7 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Butler
  2  Iowa State, Providence, Cal Poly
  1  Virginia
  0  Navy, Southern Utah, Texas A&M, Ole Miss
  Others with points: Duke (3), Michigan State (2), Charlotte (2), Boise State (1)

31: Butler (#4 Great Lakes) is selected

Women

Auto qualifiers

  1. Notre Dame
  2. Toledo
  3. Georgetown
  4. West Virginia
  5. Oklahoma State
  6. Northwestern
  7. New Mexico
  8. Northern Arizona
  9. Providence
  10. Syracuse
  11. Alabama
  12. Florida State
  13. Arkansas
  14. Texas
  15. NC State
  16. Virginia
  17. Oregon
  18. Stanford

At-large qualifiers

19. North Carolina
20. BYU
21. Colorado
22. Utah
23. Michigan State
24. Colorado St.
25. CBU
26. Washington
27. Utah Valley
28. Michigan
29. Wisconsin
30. Ohio State
31. Furman

Teams on the bubble that miss out: Utah State, Iowa State.

And here’s the full logic for why each team is picked:

Teams under consideration by points:
  13 North Carolina
  12 BYU, Colorado
  3  Michigan State, Michigan, Washington
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State, CBU
  0  Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Bradley
  Others with points: Utah (9), Wisconsin (4), Ohio State (2), Utah Valley (2), Colorado St. (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)

19: North Carolina (#3 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) BYU; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  13 BYU
  12 Colorado
  3  Michigan State, Michigan, Washington
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State, CBU
  0  Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley
  Others with points: Utah (9), Wisconsin (4), Ohio State (2), Colorado St. (2), Illinois (2), Utah Valley (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Liberty (1)

20: BYU (#3 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  12 Colorado
  9  Utah
  3  Michigan State, Michigan, Washington
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State, CBU
  0  Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley
  Others with points: Wisconsin (4), Ohio State (2), Utah Valley (2), Colorado St. (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)

21: Colorado (#4 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Utah; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  10 Utah
  3  Michigan State, Michigan, Washington
  2  Colorado St.
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State, CBU
  0  Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley
  Others with points: Wisconsin (4), Ohio State (2), Illinois (2), Utah Valley (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Liberty (1)

22: Utah (#5 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Michigan State, Michigan, Washington
  2  Colorado St., Utah Valley
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State, CBU
  0  Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley
  Others with points: Wisconsin (4), Ohio State (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)
  Breaking ties between Michigan State, Michigan, Washington using head-to-head
  Michigan loses head-to-head vs Michigan State, is not selected (Nuttycombe, Big Ten Championships, Great Lakes)
  Michigan State loses head-to-head vs Washington, is not selected (Nuttycombe)
  Michigan loses head-to-head vs Washington, is not selected (Cowboy Jamboree, Nuttycombe)

Washington not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
  Breaking ties between Michigan State, Michigan using head-to-head
  Michigan loses head-to-head vs Michigan State, is not selected (Nuttycombe, Big Ten Championships, Great Lakes)

23: Michigan State (#3 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Washington, Colorado St.; (Griak Invitational) CBU; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  5  Wisconsin
  3  Michigan, Colorado St.
  2  Utah Valley, CBU
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley
  Others with points: Washington (4), Ohio State (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)

Wisconsin not selected with push (gets in later on their own)
  Breaking ties between Michigan, Colorado St. using head-to-head
  Michigan loses head-to-head vs Colorado St., is not selected (Nuttycombe)

24: Colorado St. (#6 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin, Washington; (Griak Invitational) CBU; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Michigan, CBU
  2  Utah Valley
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Utah State, Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley
  Others with points: Wisconsin (6), Washington (5), Ohio State (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)
  Breaking ties between Michigan, CBU using head-to-head
  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Michigan and CBU
  Breaking ties between Michigan, CBU using common opponents
  Michigan loses common opponents vs CBU, is not selected (win percentages: 0.8, 0.46153846153846156) (common opponents: Colorado St., Oregon, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Washington, Minnesota, Utah, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Portland, Iowa State, Utah Valley, Oregon State, Stanford, Boise State)

25: CBU (#3 West) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  5  Washington
  3  Michigan
  2  Utah Valley
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Utah State, Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley, Oregon State
  Others with points: Wisconsin (6), Ohio State (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Liberty (1)

26: Washington (#4 West) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin; (Cowboy Jamboree) Utah Valley; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Michigan, Utah Valley
  1  Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Utah State, Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley, Oregon State, Boise State
  Others with points: Wisconsin (7), Ohio State (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)
  Breaking ties between Michigan, Utah Valley using head-to-head
  Michigan loses head-to-head vs Utah Valley, is not selected (Cowboy Jamboree, Nuttycombe)

27: Utah Valley (#7 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin; (Paul Short) Utah State; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Michigan
  1  Utah State, Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Wyoming, Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley, Oregon State, Boise State
  Others with points: Wisconsin (8), Ohio State (2), Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Liberty (1)

28: Michigan (#4 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) Wisconsin; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  9  Wisconsin
  2  Ohio State
  1  Utah State, Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Wyoming, Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley, Oregon State, Boise State
  Others with points: Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)

29: Wisconsin (#5 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Griak Invitational) Ohio State; 
Teams under consideration by points:
  3  Ohio State
  1  Utah State, Lipscomb, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Indiana, Wyoming, Penn State, Villanova, Ole Miss, LSU, Texas A&M, Harvard, Connecticut, Kentucky, Bradley, Oregon State, Boise State
  Others with points: Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Liberty (1)

30: Ohio State (#6 Great Lakes) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
Teams under consideration by points:
  1  Utah State, Furman, Iowa State
  0  Indiana, Penn State, Ole Miss, LSU, Harvard, Oregon State
  Others with points: Illinois (2), UC Davis (1), Portland (1), Washington St. (1), Air Force (1), Lipscomb (1), Cal St. Fullerton (1), Liberty (1)
  Breaking ties between Utah State, Furman, Iowa State using head-to-head
  Utah State loses head-to-head vs Furman, is not selected (Nuttycombe)
  Utah State loses head-to-head vs Iowa State, is not selected (Nuttycombe)
  Iowa State loses head-to-head vs Furman, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

31: Furman (#4 Southeast) is selected

Talk about 2022 NCAA cross country regionals on our world-famous fan forum / messageboard:

MB: Official 2022 Who’s Going to the Big Dance / NCAA XC Regionals Live Discussion Thread?

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