Projected 2021 NCAA Women’s Cross Country Championships Qualifiers (Pre-Regionals)

By LetsRun.com
November 11, 2021

On Friday, the NCAA will stage nine Division I regional meets to determine the qualifiers for next week’s NCAA Cross Country Championships in Tallahassee, Fla. You can find the full schedule, with links to results, here.

As usual, we at LetsRun.com will be projecting the qualifiers thanks to the amazing computer program of friend of LetsRun.com Bo Waggoner. Bo has a created a website – xcquals.com – that anyone can use where you can plug in the results of each regional meet and it will tell you which teams will qualify for NCAAs based on those results.

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All day on Friday, we will be running the program to provide up-to-the-minute NCAA projections based on the regional results, so be sure to keep checking LetsRun.com for the latest regional projections. The final races of the day will finish shortly after 2:30 p.m. ET, at which point we will be able to project the full field of qualifiers.

We’ve already run the program based on the current regional rankings. Below are the 31 women’s teams who would qualify should those rankings hold in the actual races on Friday.

As it stands now, UConn would be the last team to make it with Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois just missing out.

Talk about the projections on our world-famous fan forum / messageboard: MB: Official 2021 NCAA XC Regional Championships discussion thread. Who is going to qualify? Who is going to go home devastated?

Note: Projections are based on results from this set of regular-season meets. If you see a mistake in those results or a B team that is not accounted for, email jonathangault@letsrun.com

2021 NCAA women’s XC qualifiers based on regional rankings (as of November 11)

  1. Michigan
  2. Wisconsin
  3. West Virginia
  4. Georgetown
  5. Minnesota
  6. Oklahoma State
  7. BYU
  8. New Mexico
  9. Syracuse
  10. Providence
  11. Florida State
  12. Ole Miss
  13. Arkansas
  14. Texas
  15. North Carolina St.
  16. North Carolina
  17. Oregon
  18. Washington
  19. Colorado
  20. Utah
  21. Iowa State
  22. Alabama
  23. Michigan State
  24. Toledo
  25. Notre Dame
  26. Butler
  27. Northern Arizona
  28. Utah State
  29. Colorado St.
  30. Villanova
  31. Connecticut

Logic

Automatically selected:

1: Michigan (#1 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Big 10 Championships) Michigan State;
2: Wisconsin (#2 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St., Iowa State;
3: West Virginia (#1 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St., Iowa State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Utah State, Butler, Stanford, Portland; (Big 12 Champs) Iowa State;
4: Georgetown (#2 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (Paul Short) Northern Arizona, Villanova, Utah State; (FSU Pre-Nationals) Colorado, Utah, Northern Arizona, Liberty, Illinois;
5: Minnesota (#1 Midwest) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) NC State, Alabama; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State;
6: Oklahoma State (#2 Midwest) is selected, has losses to (Cowboy Jamboree) Colorado; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State;
7: BYU (#1 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State;
8: New Mexico (#2 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) NC State;
9: Syracuse (#1 Northeast) is selected, has losses to (ACC Championships) NC State; (Beantown) Duke, Connecticut, Harvard, Columbia; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St.;
10: Providence (#2 Northeast) is selected, has losses to (Big East Championships) Butler, Connecticut, Villanova; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St.;
11: Florida State (#1 South) is selected, has losses to (ACC Championships) NC State; (Joe Piane) NC State, Alabama; (FSU Pre-Nationals) Colorado, Utah;
12: Ole Miss (#2 South) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) NC State, Alabama; (FSU Pre-Nationals) Colorado, Utah;
13: Arkansas (#1 South Central) is selected, has losses to (Dellinger) Utah, Colorado St.; (FSU Pre-Nationals) Colorado, Utah;
14: Texas (#2 South Central) is selected, has losses to (Cowboy Jamboree) Colorado, Utah Valley, Tulsa; (Big 12 Champs) Iowa State; (Pre-Nats Open) Tennessee;
15: North Carolina St. (#1 Southeast) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining
16: North Carolina (#2 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (ACC Championships) NC State; (FSU Pre-Nationals) Colorado, Utah;
17: Oregon (#1 West) is selected, has losses to (Dellinger) Utah, Colorado St., Portland, Oregon State; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St., Iowa State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Utah State, Butler, Stanford, Portland; (PAC-12 Champs) Colorado, Utah;
18: Washington (#2 West) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) NC State, Alabama; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St., Iowa State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Utah State, Butler; (PAC-12 Champs) Colorado, Utah; 

 

Teams under consideration by points:

  9  Colorado, Utah

  6  Iowa State

  4  Michigan State, Alabama

  2  Villanova, Connecticut, Stanford

  1  Tennessee, Harvard, Liberty, Illinois

  0  Toledo, Princeton, Abilene Christian, Rice, Kentucky, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (8), Butler (4), Utah State (4), Notre Dame (3), Portland (3), Northern Arizona (2), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Utah Valley (1)

  Breaking ties between Colorado, Utah using head-to-head

  Utah loses head-to-head vs Colorado, is not selected (FSU Pre-Nationals, PAC-12 Champs, Mountain)

 

19: Colorado (#3 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  9  Utah

  6  Iowa State

  4  Michigan State, Alabama

  2  Northern Arizona, Villanova, Connecticut, Stanford

  1  Tennessee, Harvard, Liberty, Illinois

  0  Toledo, Princeton, Abilene Christian, Rice, Kentucky, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (8), Butler (4), Utah State (4), Notre Dame (3), Portland (3), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Utah Valley (1)

 

20: Utah (#4 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  6  Iowa State

  4  Michigan State, Utah State, Alabama

  2  Northern Arizona, Villanova, Connecticut, Stanford

  1  Tennessee, Harvard, Liberty, Illinois

  0  Toledo, Princeton, Abilene Christian, Rice, Kentucky, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (8), Butler (4), Notre Dame (3), Portland (3), Utah Valley (1), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1)

 

21: Iowa State (#3 Midwest) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St.; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  4  Michigan State, Utah State, Alabama

  2  Northern Arizona, Villanova, Connecticut, Stanford

  1  Tennessee, Harvard, Liberty, Illinois

  0  Toledo, Princeton, Abilene Christian, Rice, Kentucky, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (9), Butler (4), Notre Dame (3), Portland (3), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Utah Valley (1)

  Breaking ties between Michigan State, Utah State, Alabama using head-to-head

  Utah State loses head-to-head vs Michigan State, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Michigan State and Alabama

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Utah State and Alabama

  Breaking ties between Michigan State, Alabama using common opponents

  Michigan State loses common opponents vs Alabama, is not selected (win percentages: 0.8823529411764706, 0.7083333333333334) (common opponents: Washington, Butler, Purdue, Missouri, Southern Utah, Furman, Tennessee, Toledo, New Mexico, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Georgia Tech, NC State)

 

22: Alabama (#3 South) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) NC State; (North Alabama Showcase) Lipscomb; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  4  Michigan State, Utah State

  2  Northern Arizona, Villanova, Connecticut, Stanford

  1  Tennessee, Harvard, Liberty, Illinois

  0  Toledo, Princeton, Georgia Tech, Abilene Christian, Rice, Kentucky, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (9), Butler (4), Notre Dame (3), Portland (3), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1), Utah Valley (1)

  Breaking ties between Michigan State, Utah State using head-to-head

  Utah State loses head-to-head vs Michigan State, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

 

23: Michigan State (#3 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Griak Invite) Tennessee, Liberty; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St., Notre Dame; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  4  Notre Dame, Utah State

  2  Northern Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, Connecticut, Liberty, Stanford

  1  Harvard, Illinois

  0  Toledo, Princeton, Georgia Tech, Abilene Christian, Rice, Kentucky, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (10), Butler (4), Portland (3), Utah Valley (1), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1)

  Breaking ties between Notre Dame, Utah State using head-to-head

  Utah State loses head-to-head vs Notre Dame, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

 

24: Toledo (#4 Great Lakes) is selected, gives no points (pushed in)

25: Notre Dame (#5 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (ACC Championships) NC State; (Joe Piane) NC State, Kentucky, Furman, Butler, Illinois, Weber State; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St.; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Butler

  4  Utah State

  2  Northern Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, Connecticut, Liberty, Illinois, Stanford

  1  Harvard, Kentucky

  0  Princeton, Georgia Tech, Abilene Christian, Rice, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (11), Portland (3), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1), Furman (1), Utah Valley (1), Weber State (1)

 

26: Butler (#6 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Joe Piane) NC State, Kentucky, Furman; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St., Utah State; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Utah State

  2  Northern Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, Connecticut, Kentucky, Liberty, Illinois, Stanford

  1  Harvard

  0  Indiana, Princeton, Georgia Tech, Abilene Christian, Rice, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Colorado St. (12), Portland (3), Furman (2), Utah Valley (1), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1), Weber State (1)

 

Utah State not selected with push (gets in later on their own)

  Breaking ties between Northern Arizona, Villanova, Tennessee, Connecticut, Kentucky, Liberty, Illinois, Stanford using head-to-head

  Villanova loses head-to-head vs Northern Arizona, is not selected (Paul Short)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Northern Arizona and Tennessee

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Northern Arizona and Connecticut

  Kentucky loses head-to-head vs Northern Arizona, is not selected (FSU Pre-Nationals)

  Liberty loses head-to-head vs Northern Arizona, is not selected (FSU Pre-Nationals)

  Illinois loses head-to-head vs Northern Arizona, is not selected (FSU Pre-Nationals)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Northern Arizona and Stanford

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Villanova and Tennessee

  Villanova loses head-to-head vs Connecticut (most recent matchup), is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe, Big East Championships)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Villanova and Kentucky

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Villanova and Liberty

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Villanova and Illinois

  Villanova loses head-to-head vs Stanford, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Tennessee and Connecticut

  Tennessee loses head-to-head vs Kentucky, is not selected (SEC Champs)

  Liberty loses head-to-head vs Tennessee, is not selected (Griak Invite)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Tennessee and Illinois

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Tennessee and Stanford

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Connecticut and Kentucky

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Connecticut and Liberty

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Connecticut and Illinois

  Connecticut loses head-to-head vs Stanford, is not selected (Wisconsin Nuttycombe)

  Liberty loses head-to-head vs Kentucky (most recent matchup), is not selected (FSU Pre-Nationals, Southeast)

  Kentucky loses head-to-head vs Illinois (most recent matchup), is not selected (Joe Piane, FSU Pre-Nationals)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Kentucky and Stanford

  Illinois loses head-to-head vs Liberty, is not selected (FSU Pre-Nationals)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Liberty and Stanford

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Illinois and Stanford

  Breaking ties between Northern Arizona, Stanford using common opponents

  Stanford loses common opponents vs Northern Arizona, is not selected (win percentages: 0.6842105263157895, 0.625) (common opponents: Colorado, Southern Utah, Arizona, Utah, CBU, Air Force, Colorado St., New Mexico, UCLA, Idaho, UC Davis, Portland State, BYU, Villanova, Utah State)

 

27: Northern Arizona (#5 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  12 Colorado St.

  5  Utah State

  2  Villanova, Tennessee, Connecticut, Kentucky, Liberty, Illinois, Stanford

  1  Harvard

  0  Indiana, Princeton, Georgia Tech, Abilene Christian, Rice, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Portland (3), Furman (2), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1), Utah Valley (1), Weber State (1)

 

Colorado St. not selected with push (gets in later on their own)

 

28: Utah State (#6 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Paul Short) Villanova; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Colorado St.; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  13 Colorado St.

  3  Villanova

  2  Tennessee, Connecticut, Kentucky, Liberty, Illinois, Stanford

  1  Weber State, Harvard

  0  Indiana, Princeton, Georgia Tech, Abilene Christian, Rice, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Portland (3), Furman (2), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1), Utah Valley (1)

 

29: Colorado St. (#7 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  3  Villanova

  2  Tennessee, Connecticut, Kentucky, Liberty, Illinois, Stanford

  1  Weber State, Harvard

  0  Indiana, Air Force, Princeton, Georgia Tech, Abilene Christian, Rice, Northwestern, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Portland (3), Furman (2), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1), Utah Valley (1)

 

30: Villanova (#3 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (Big East Championships) Connecticut; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Stanford, Portland; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  3  Connecticut

  2  Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois

  1  Weber State

  0  Indiana, Princeton, Abilene Christian, Gonzaga

  Others with points: Portland (4), Stanford (3), Liberty (2), Furman (2), Utah Valley (1), Harvard (1), Duke (1), Oregon State (1), Tulsa (1), Columbia (1), Lipscomb (1)

 

31: Connecticut (#3 Northeast) is selected, has losses to (Beantown) Duke; (Wisconsin Nuttycombe) NC State, Stanford, Portland, Gonzaga;

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